The IRGC named its missile campaign 'Operation Nasr' and warned of seven days of round-the-clock strikes on Israel.

Israel struck the Karun petrochemical complex in Mahshahr, its first hit on Iranian energy infrastructure since April.

Iranian missiles breached Jordanian airspace and triggered sirens at Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base.

The Houthis declared a total ban on Israeli shipping in the Red Sea and fired two missiles at Israel.

Trump posted that Israel and Iran 'must immediately stop shooting'; diplomatic efforts continue.

Iran stated the US 'bears responsibility' for the ceasefire collapse.

Brent crude surged 4.9% to $97.68/bbl as both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb came under threat.

Israel struck Iranian missile launch sites and military infrastructure across five cities early Monday, without US invol

The IDF confirmed targets were 'unrelated to the energy sector', suggesting deliberate scope limitation.

The IRGC warned of 'even more massive strikes' if Israel continues retaliating.

Houthis fired a ballistic missile at central Israel; IDF said all threats were intercepted.

Trump told Fox News that Iran should 'get back to the table and make a deal'.

Brent crude spiked 4.4% to $97.15/bbl; spot premium reached $25/bbl, signalling extreme tightness.

Vahidi reportedly overrode Pezeshkian's outreach to Gulf states and ordered resumed attacks.

Iran launched ballistic missiles at northern Israel, the first direct strike since the April ceasefire; IDF intercepted

Trump called Netanyahu demanding no retaliation, telling Channel 12 he is 'very close to a final deal'.

In a Meet the Press interview aired today, Trump said both sides are 'a couple of points' apart or he will 'blow the hel

Israel struck a Hezbollah command centre in Beirut's Dahieh district, killing two, in defiance of a US request to stand

Pakistan's interior minister delivered written proposals from PM Sharif and Army Chief Munir to Supreme Leader Mojtaba K

Treasury Secretary Bessent directed $24bn in frozen Iranian assets to Gulf partners for war-damage reconstruction.

Pakistan's interior minister arrived in Tehran carrying a letter from Army Chief Asim Munir to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Kh

Israeli airstrike killed a Lebanese brigadier general and two soldiers, the highest-ranking Lebanese officer killed in t

Iran war death toll rose to 3,558 with 10,870 injured, an increase of 137 from the previous count.

State Department sanctioned an Iranian energy smuggling network in UAE and China, first reported 5 June.

UANI tracked 71 laden Iranian tankers inside the blockade line with an estimated $7 billion in IRGC revenue, first repor

Rezaei warned Iran would extend the war to the Indian Ocean, Red Sea and Mediterranean if fighting resumes, first report

US Treasury directed the redirection of frozen Iranian assets to Gulf allies for war damage reconstruction, undermining

Pakistan's interior minister arrived in Tehran carrying letters from the army chief and prime minister, positioning Paki

Houthis claimed attacks on two Red Sea vessels with ballistic missiles and drones; US destroyed four drones and two anti

US denied visas to 15 Iranian World Cup delegation officials while screening for IRGC ties; Iran relocated its training

Brent crude fell to $93 per barrel on weak Chinese demand, though the physical market remains extremely tight with a $25

Nearly 40 ships exited the Persian Gulf via US Navy convoys over the past three weeks, first reported 4 June.

Iran and Russia signed a $25 billion nuclear cooperation agreement covering new power plants and joint radiopharmaceutic

Iran fired seven ballistic missiles at Ali al-Salem air base in Kuwait and the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain; six intercepte

A suspected drone attack hit Oman's Mina al Fahal oil terminal, suspending crude loading for several hours before operat

Gulf airports in Kuwait and Bahrain temporarily closed airspace and suspended flights after the missile salvo.

Brent crude fell to $93 per barrel on weak Chinese demand despite continued Hormuz disruption.

FDD analysis confirmed Iran exported zero crude oil in May, with 86% of its tanker fleet now sanctioned.

Araghchi stated there is 'no formal negotiation process underway', contradicting Trump's claim that talks are going 'ver

Trump said the war is 'largely finished' and threatened a 'more difficult' conclusion if Iran rejects terms.

Rezaei declared negotiations at 'deadlock' and demanded $24 billion in frozen assets before any deal.

Ghalibaf threatened to abandon talks and move to confrontation if Israeli strikes on Lebanon continue.

Hezbollah rejected the US-brokered Lebanon ceasefire; 20 killed in fresh strikes on 5 June.

Lebanese President Aoun accused Iran of using Lebanon as a 'bargaining chip' in negotiations.

Iran warned of 'complete closure' of the Strait of Hormuz if US attacks continue.

NCRI reported 6,500 arrested since the war began, with inflation at 53.9% annual and cooking oil up 266%.

Iran fired seven ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain; six were intercepted.

The US struck Iranian radar at Goruk and on Qeshm Island after shooting down four drones over the Strait.

An explosion at Oman's Mina al-Fahal terminal halted crude loading; sources suggest a drone attack.

The IAEA told member states it cannot verify Iran's enriched uranium stockpile.

Araghchi said 'no tangible progress' in negotiations and linked any deal to a Lebanon ceasefire.

Rezaei told CNN talks are 'at a deadlock' over $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets.

Brent crude settled at $93.09, down 2%, as Araghchi headed to Islamabad for indirect peace talks.

Iran claimed it fired warning missiles at USS Truxtun and USS McFaul; CENTCOM denied any incident occurred.

CNN revealed Israel deployed special forces and Mossad to southern Azerbaijan, 60 miles from Tabriz.

A Khamenei military adviser warned Iran would expand to the Indian Ocean, Bab al-Mandab and Mediterranean if the US resu

The WFP said the war has pushed millions into acute food insecurity across Somalia, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan.

The Iraqi militia disarmament deadline passed without resolution; hardliners now demand US withdrawal as a precondition.

The US designated 12 new entities under the 'Economic Fury' sanctions campaign.

Iranian economists warned the economic crisis has become a 'survival crisis' threatening basic livelihoods.

Iranian state media reported Tehran is 'actively considering' elements of the US peace proposal, including the 60-day Mo

Trump said he would be 'honoured' to meet Mojtaba Khamenei if a deal is reached, his first explicit summit offer.

Araghchi said 'no progress has been made' in negotiations; only message exchanges, not formal talks.

Hezbollah rejected the 4 June Israel-Lebanon ceasefire as 'absurd, humiliating and insulting'; fighting continued on Day

Trump contradicted Hezbollah's rejection, claiming 'they did not reject the offer' and insisting progress continues.

Brent crude traded near $95.25, volatile within the $90-97 range after a 3% drop on residual diplomatic optimism.

The Iraqi militia disarmament joint committee reached its deadline; Kataib Hezbollah and al-Nujaba continue to reject th

Houthis claimed attacks on three commercial vessels on 5 June across the Red Sea and Arabian Sea.

Oil prices dropped 3-4% on 4 June on ceasefire optimism; Brent fell to $97.95.

The UK and France finalised a 15-nation Hormuz mine-clearing mission with assets pre-deployed.

Trump requested MoU amendments seeking more specific nuclear material handover terms.

Trump revealed a rejected plan to collect 'nuclear dust' from Iran; called uranium 'entombed'.

IRGC commander Qaani demanded Israeli withdrawal to 'pre-war positions' in Lebanon as precondition.

Kuwait will expel two Iranian diplomats over the 3 June airport strike; Iran denied responsibility.

Hezbollah formally rejected the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire; rockets triggered alerts in northern Israel hours later.

Mojtaba Khamenei claimed Iran delivered a 'decisive blow' but has not appeared publicly since March.

Araghchi declared 'no formal negotiation process' and warned a Beirut strike would trigger full-scale resumption.

Trump called war powers supporters 'grandstanders' and 'unpatriotic' after the 215-208 vote.

Qatar assumed lead mediator role from Oman with draft terms including Hormuz reopening and sanctions waivers.

Iran convened a China strategy meeting on 3 June; rail oil exports to China have tripled since the April blockade.

The IAEA warned on 3 June that nuclear risk from Iran exceeds pre-June 2025 levels; 440 kg of 60% HEU uninspected.

Israel and Lebanon formally announced a ceasefire with pilot zones under exclusive Lebanese Armed Forces control on 4 Ju

A UNIFIL peacekeeper was killed by mortar fire near Marjayoun in southern Lebanon overnight on 4 June.

Kuwait released CCTV footage and recovered an MD550 engine confirming a Shahed-136 drone struck airport Terminal 1.

Araghchi explicitly warned that Israeli attacks on Beirut would end the US-Iran ceasefire.

Trump claimed Iran has 'already agreed' to a nuclear weapons ban and said he wants to meet Mojtaba Khamenei.

Rubio outlined a two-phase deal structure: Hormuz reopening for sanctions relief first, nuclear limits second.

Brent crude fell 3.9% to $97 on 4 June after spiking to $101 on the Kuwait strike.

US struck drone-control stations, missile sites, and a telecoms tower on Qeshm Island on 3 June.

IRGC fired 13 ballistic missiles and 17 drones at Kuwait and Bahrain; one struck Kuwait airport, killing one and woundin

House passed war powers resolution 215-208, with four Republicans crossing party lines.

Israel and Lebanon agreed to conditional ceasefire implementation contingent on Hezbollah withdrawal south of the Litani

Rubio testified Iran is willing to negotiate nuclear issues it previously refused to discuss.

Araghchi contradicted Trump, saying there has been no significant progress in negotiations.

Iraqi Iran-backed militias split: two agreed to disarm under state control, three rejected.

Iran agreed to discuss its 440.9 kg stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium, a position it had refused as recently as one mont

Kuwait expelled two Iranian embassy staff within 24 hours of the airport attack; the Arab League and UAE condemned the s

The US House rejected a war powers resolution 213-214, the narrowest possible margin, removing the nearest legislative c

Rubio told the Senate that Iran has mined 'large segments' of the Strait of Hormuz and described combat operations as 'o

Two major Iraqi Iran-backed militias announced weapons handover to state authorities; two others rejected disarmament.

Trump said he would like to meet Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei and claimed Iran agreed not to pursue nuclea

War-risk insurance premiums reached 4,000 times pre-crisis levels; six P&I clubs withdrew cover entirely.

Iranian drones struck Kuwait International Airport Terminal 1, killing one person and wounding several; all commercial f

CENTCOM declared all Iranian missile attacks on US forces in Kuwait and Bahrain 'failed'; two missiles aimed at Kuwait f

The US struck an IRGC ground control station and drone facilities on Qeshm Island at the Strait of Hormuz entrance.

Iran's Foreign Ministry said Kuwait and Bahrain bear 'direct and clear responsibility' for hosting US military operation

Brent crude rose toward $98 for a third consecutive session; spot premiums over futures reached $25, a historically rare

Iran's May inflation hit 77.2% year-on-year, the highest since the Second World War; daily necessities inflation reached

Republicans are weighing reconciliation to fund the $200bn+ war effort as Democrats remain nearly unanimous in oppositio

The IRGC launched missiles and drones at US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and an airbase in Kuwait; all were inter

The US struck an Iranian ground control station on Qeshm Island and disabled a sixth tanker approaching Kharg Island wit

Senior IRGC officer Asadi declared war with the US 'inevitable', stating Iran 'will never surrender'.

Netanyahu stated Iran's regime is 'fated to pass from the world' as new Mossad chief Gofman was sworn in.

The US Treasury sanctioned Nobitex and three other Iranian crypto exchanges handling over half of Iranian crypto inflows

Rubio outlined a phased deal: Hormuz reopening as prerequisite, then physical HEU removal, then sanctions relief.

Iraqi militias Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Imam Ali Brigades began handing weapons to state control following Sistani's directi

Iran formally suspended all negotiations and mediator exchanges with the US, citing Israeli operations in Lebanon and Ga

The IRGC fired two ballistic missiles at Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait; CENTCOM intercepted both but debris injured fi

Quds Force commander Qaani threatened to 'equate' Bab el-Mandeb traffic with Hormuz, signalling activation of additional

US struck Iranian radar and drone sites near Geruk and on Qeshm Island after Iran downed a US MQ-1 drone over internatio

Trump's ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah collapsed within hours; Israel killed eight in Lebanon on 2 June despite

Ghalibaf warned that Iran would 'stand against the Zionist regime' if Lebanese operations continue, going beyond the tal

Oil whipsawed: Brent surged 5.5% to approximately $96 on the suspension, then retreated to $94.58 as Trump claimed talks

Talks resumed within hours of Iran's formal suspension; Trump told ABC News a deal to reopen Hormuz is reachable 'over t

Trump confronted Netanyahu in an explosive call, using expletives and calling him 'crazy' over the Lebanon offensive; Is

Hezbollah agreed to a US ceasefire framework: Israel ceases Beirut strikes in exchange for Hezbollah refraining from att

The IRGC struck the Panama-flagged container ship MSC Sariska V with cruise missiles 40nm southeast of Umm Qasr, claimin

Satellite imagery confirmed Iran has reopened 50 of 69 underground missile tunnel entrances across 18 facilities in seve

Kazakhstan offered to store Iran's approximately 440kg of 60%-enriched uranium at its internationally controlled LEU ban

Iran attacked Kurdish positions in northern Iraq with drones and missiles; the Kurdistan Region has endured roughly 855

US gasoline reached $4.50 per gallon; GasBuddy forecasts a $4.80 summer average.

ISW/CTP assessed that IRGC hardliners around Vahidi are 'unwilling to make meaningful concessions' and are attempting to

Three sources told NBC that Iran may have used Chinese-made FN-6 MANPADs to shoot down a US F-15E on 3 April.

Iran suspended all negotiations with the US via mediators, conditioning resumption on full Israeli withdrawal from Leban

Iran threatened 'complete' Hormuz closure and activation of the Bab el-Mandeb front via Houthi allies.

CENTCOM labelled Iranian ballistic missile strikes on Kuwait an 'egregious ceasefire violation'.

Israel ordered strikes on Beirut's Dahieh suburb and seized Beaufort Castle in its deepest Lebanon incursion in 26 years

Reports emerged that President Pezeshkian submitted a resignation letter citing total IRGC control; the government denie

Brent crude spiked 7% to $96-97/bbl on the talk suspension and Hormuz closure threat.

CENTCOM struck a drone facility in Bandar Abbas and destroyed five Iranian drones threatening Hormuz shipping.

The IRGC fired a Fateh-110 at Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, injuring five US personnel and damaging two MQ-9 drones.

Kuwait intercepted additional missiles and drones; the Emir condemned the attack from 'a neighbouring Muslim country'.

CENTCOM struck Iranian radar and drone sites at Goruk and Qeshm Island after Iran downed a US MQ-1 Predator.

Israel crossed the Litani River in its deepest Lebanon incursion since 2000, seizing Beaufort Castle.

Iran called Trump's revised MOU demands 'excessive' and is preparing a counteroffer via Oman.

Iran restored gas production at three South Pars offshore platforms.

France requested an emergency UN Security Council meeting on the Israel-Lebanon escalation.

Trump edited the ceasefire MOU for a third time, tightening terms on Hormuz sequencing and uranium removal.

Iran signalled a counteroffer via the Omani channel; Araghchi said 'dialogue is ongoing'.

Hegseth warned the US military is 'postured even stronger than day one' and ready to resume combat.

The IRGC claimed it shot down a US MQ-1 Predator drone over the Persian Gulf on 31 May.

CENTCOM fired a Hellfire missile into the engine room of a Gambian-flagged ship violating the blockade.

Iran International reported Pezeshkian submitted a resignation letter citing IRGC 'total takeover'; his office denied it

Chinese MANPADS likely downed a US F-15E Strike Eagle in April, first reported 30 May.

Trump sent harder MOU terms to Iran and told Fox News he is in 'no hurry' to sign a deal.

CNN investigation shows Iran reopened 50 of 69 tunnel entrances at struck missile sites, exceeding IC timelines.

Iranian parliament speaker Ghalibaf declared Tehran 'does not trust the enemy's words and promises'.

Hegseth warned at Shangri-La the US military is 'ready to resume combat' if the deal fails.

Israel crossed the Litani River for the first time since 2006 and seized Beaufort Castle.

Hezbollah launched 105 attack waves on 30 May, the heaviest single day of the war.

IRGC adviser Rezaei threatened Iran would 'break the blockade through direct action'.

Hezbollah fired a fresh rocket barrage at Western Galilee on 31 May; most intercepted, remainder struck open areas with

Iran's Foreign Ministry reiterated for the second consecutive day that 'no nuclear negotiations' are under way.

Satellite imagery confirms Iranian military reconstitution at Yazd missile base, with tunnel reopening and launcher repl

The WSJ revealed the UAE secretly struck Iran dozens of times during the war, targeting Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, and

Iran activated a new oil export node at Kuh Mubarak east of Hormuz, lifting 6.9 million barrels of crude for China over

The US State Department announced a 12th round of sanctions targeting Iran's shadow oil fleet, designating eight entitie

Iranian economists warned the economy has reached a critical breaking point, with nearly 50% below the poverty line and

Trump asked for MOU amendments on uranium transfer, timing, and Hormuz wording, delaying finalisation by roughly three d

Iran's Foreign Ministry stated there are 'no negotiations on the nuclear issue' at this stage of talks.

Two US officials said Iran agreed to relinquish 60%-enriched uranium; a senior Iranian source denied this.

Iran fired a Fateh-110 at Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, wounding five Americans and destroying an MQ-9 Reaper.

The US fired a Hellfire into the engine room of blockade-runner M/V Lian Star, the fifth vessel disabled.

Hezbollah rockets hit northern Israel throughout Shabbat; Israeli strikes killed 11 in Tyre, southern Lebanon.

Hegseth warned at the Shangri-La Dialogue that the US is 'more than capable' of resuming strikes.

Trump held a two-hour Situation Room meeting on 29 May but departed without approving the Iran deal.

Hegseth warned the US military is ready to resume strikes, saying forces are 'postured even stronger today'.

Omani authorities reported a suspected floating mine in the Strait of Hormuz; US has not confirmed origin.

Iran's Fars news agency called Trump's deal claims a 'mixture of truth and falsehood', disputing nuclear and financial t

The IRGC's Khatam al-Anbiya demanded all vessels obtain IRGC Navy authorisation for Hormuz transit.

Iran's parliament began drafting legislation to formalise Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.

Martial arts champion Benyamin Naqdi was sentenced to death over January protest involvement.

Trump posted that the blockade will be lifted and ships can start heading home on Friday 30 May.

Ghalibaf declared Iran gained concessions 'through missiles, not talks', undermining the cooperative framing of the MOU.

Rezaei accused Trump of 'betraying diplomacy for the third time' by maintaining the blockade during negotiations.

The US seized $1 billion in Iranian cryptocurrency and dismantled a military procurement network.

A reported $300 billion reconstruction fund appeared in the draft MoU, attributed to Witkoff and Kushner.

Iran's Azizi stated enriched uranium will not leave the country, contradicting a core MOU provision.

Satellite imagery showed Iran clearing 50 blocked access points at 18 missile sites since the ceasefire.

Trump left the Situation Room without signing the MOU, saying he wants 'a couple of days to think about it'.

Iran's Fars News claimed the MOU includes $12 billion in frozen assets, contradicting Trump's 'no money until further no

Iran's foreign ministry stated no deal has been finalised; IRGC-affiliated media called Trump's claims 'a mix of truth a

US and Iranian forces exchanged fire on 29 May, with strikes on Bandar Abbas and warning shots at four vessels.

Brent crude fell to roughly $92, down 20% from its 2026 peak, the steepest monthly decline since March 2020.

CENTCOM found no mines in the Strait of Hormuz despite extensive search, complicating the MOU's mine-clearance clause.

US and UK struck 13 Houthi targets in Yemen on 30 May, the highest single-day toll in the campaign.

Trump posted he would meet aides in the Situation Room for a 'final determination' on the Iran MOU.

Iran denied the MOU is finalised, with Tasnim calling Trump's claims a mix of 'truth and lies'.

Ghalibaf said Iran gains concessions 'with missiles, not talks', demanding the US act first.

Mojtaba Khamenei is communicating via a courier network from an undisclosed location, causing delays.

Pakistan claimed it was selected as the MOU signing venue; FM Dar met Rubio in Washington.

Israel's 36th Division crossed the Litani River; at least 19 killed in the heaviest Lebanon strikes in weeks.

Brent crude fell to $91.17, down roughly 19% for May, its steepest monthly decline since 2020.

VP Vance said Trump's approval of the 60-day MOU is 'still TBD', citing unresolved nuclear language.

Secretary Rubio narrowed the remaining gap to 'a word, a sentence' on enrichment wording.

Iran's IRGC Navy fired warning shots at four vessels transiting Hormuz without authorisation.

Treasury sanctioned Iran's Strait Authority and warned Oman against facilitating Hormuz tolls, first reported 28 May.

The US sanctioned eight additional vessels in Iran's shadow oil fleet alongside MOU negotiations.

Brent crude fell to $91-93, down from $96-97, on renewed deal optimism.

Israel struck southern Beirut for the first time since the ceasefire extension, killing three civilians, first reported

US and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative 60-day MOU in Qatar; neither leader has approved it.

Trump said he is 'not satisfied' and 'not in a rush'; VP Vance confirmed signing is 'still TBD'.

Iran's FM declared a 'strategic deadlock' on enrichment; the nuclear file has been postponed.

US forces destroyed a drone control station near Bandar Abbas and intercepted five attack drones near Hormuz.

Kuwait condemned the Iranian ballistic missile attack as a 'dangerous escalation' and reserved the right to self-defence

Israel ordered mass forced displacement of all southern Lebanon below the Zahrani River, covering 14% of territory.

US energy stockpiles fell 17.4 million barrels in the latest week.

Iran fired a ballistic missile at a US air base in Kuwait; Kuwaiti air defences intercepted it with no damage or casualt

CENTCOM called the launch an 'egregious ceasefire violation', the strongest US condemnation language since April.

The US struck an Iranian drone launch site near Bandar Abbas and intercepted four attack drones targeting a commercial v

Axios reported a completed MOU covering Hormuz reopening, sanctions waivers, and a nuclear commitment, awaiting Trump's

A diplomat involved in mediation downplayed the report, saying final answers have not been given by either side.

US Treasury sanctioned Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority under the 'Economic Fury' campaign.

Israeli strikes killed 34 across Lebanon on 28 May, one of the deadliest days since the April ceasefire.

The IRGC claimed it struck the US air base responsible for the Bandar Abbas attacks, warning of a 'more decisive' respon

Kuwait activated air defences against hostile missile and drone threats on 28 May morning.

CENTCOM destroyed four Iranian attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz and struck a ground control station in Bandar Abb

Israel struck Sanaa International Airport, destroying Yemen's last operational Yemenia aircraft.

Israel struck Tyre after declaring all territory south of the Zahrani River a combat zone, with 608 killed since the Apr

Iran state media reported a 14-point draft framework including Hormuz reopening within one month; the US has not confirm

The Wall Street Journal editorial board warned Trump against a 'betrayal' deal with Iran, first published 26 May, now ga

Iran launched missiles and drones at Kuwait's Shuwaikh Port, Mubarak Al Kabeer Port, and Kuwait International Airport.

CENTCOM struck a drone ground-control station in Bandar Abbas and shot down four Iranian attack drones over the Strait.

The IRGC claimed it attacked the US air base that launched the Bandar Abbas strikes and downed a US MQ-9 Reaper.

Trump told his Cabinet Iran is 'negotiating on fumes' and threatened to 'finish the job'.

Israel declared southern Lebanon a combat zone, ordering evacuation of Tyre and Nabatieh; 31 killed on 27 May.

Iran partially restored internet after an 88-day blackout; the Judiciary tried to block the order.

Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first extensive public statement, declaring Gulf states will no longer host US bases.

The White House called an Iranian-circulated draft ceasefire MOU a 'fabrication', though diplomats say the language was

CENTCOM struck two IRGC mine-laying boats and a Bandar Abbas SAM site on 25 May, first reported 25-26 May.

South Korea confirmed Iranian Noor-series missiles struck the HMM Namu, the first state attribution of an Iranian attack

Israel expanded ground operations past the Lebanese security zone, killing 31 on 27 May.

Israeli intelligence assessed Iran has restarted ballistic missile production, first reported 26 May.

Rubio said a deal could take 'a few days'; Camp David meeting set for 28 May.

Trump convened a full Cabinet meeting at the White House, relocated from Camp David, to discuss Iran and Hormuz strategy

Vance warned Trump is 'locked and loaded' to resume military operations if nuclear talks fail.

Shamkhani, adviser to the Supreme Leader, dismissed Trump's uranium enrichment demand as 'fantasy', contradicting the MO

Trump offered to destroy Iran's enriched uranium 'in place' rather than requiring physical removal, first reported 26 Ma

The Pentagon will host a separate military coordination track for Israel-Lebanon security talks on 29 May.

Hezbollah deployed fibre-optic FPV drones immune to electronic countermeasures, launching over 1,000 drones in eight day

The IDF killed Mohammed Ouda, Hamas's new military wing chief, one week after his appointment.

Israel expanded ground operations beyond the Yellow Line in southern Lebanon, with 120 air strikes in one day.

Trump demanded six Muslim-majority nations join the Abraham Accords; Pakistan rejected and Saudi Arabia conditioned on P

Rubio said Hormuz will open 'one way or the other', an implicit military ultimatum rejected by Iran.

The IRGC claimed 25 vessels transited Hormuz in 24 hours under its coordination, institutionalising the toll regime.

Iran partially restored internet after an 87-day blackout, though connectivity remained below 10%.

Brent crude eased to $99 after spiking 3% on retaliation threats.

The House postponed a war powers vote to 2 June

(First reported 22 May.)

Iran upgraded its ceasefire violation language to 'grave violation' and threatened 'legitimate and certain' retaliation.

The IRGC claimed it struck US military vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, asserting 'massive damage' with no independent c

Iran's Parliament Speaker demanded $12bn in immediate frozen asset release and $12bn within 60 days as part of any deal.

Rubio said a deal could take 'a few more days'; Trump convened a Camp David cabinet meeting for Wednesday 28 May.

Iran's Foreign Ministry said a deal is 'not imminent' and confirmed nuclear talks are sequenced after a ceasefire framew

IDF troops advanced north of the Litani River, striking 100+ Hezbollah sites across the Bekaa Valley overnight.

The IRGC claimed it shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over Iranian airspace and fired at an RQ-4 and an F-35.

The IRGC vowed a 'decisive response' to ceasefire violations, escalating rhetoric during active talks.

Iran's top negotiators met Qatar's prime minister to discuss a 14-point memorandum of understanding.

Iran agreed 'in principle' to dispose of highly enriched uranium, then denied committing to a handover.

Trump demanded Iran's enriched uranium be transferred to the US or destroyed under IAEA supervision.

Brent crude rose 3.3% to $99.33, reversing the previous week's deal-driven decline.

CENTCOM struck Iranian missile sites and IRGC boats laying mines near Bandar Abbas, calling it 'self-defence' while main

Netanyahu ordered the IDF to 'crush' Hezbollah, launching 85 munitions across 70 sites in Lebanon.

Pakistan formally rejected Trump's Abraham Accords demand as incompatible with its 'fundamental ideologies'.

Trump outlined three options for Iran's enriched uranium: ship it to the US, destroy it on site, or move it to a third c

Rubio said a deal could be finalised 'today'; Iran said it is 'not imminent' and nuclear terms are not under discussion.

Brent crude partially recovered to $97.74 after falling below $98, with steep backwardation signalling near-term risk.

Austrian intelligence reported Iran's nuclear weapons programme is 'well advanced', contradicting IAEA and US assessment

Trump demanded Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, and Jordan join the Abraham Accords alongside any Iran deal

Saudi Arabia rejected the linkage, insisting on an 'irreversible pathway' to a Palestinian state first.

Both sides tempered expectations: Iran called a deal 'not imminent'; Trump said the US is 'not in a rush'.

Rubio said a deal could be finalised 'today' but warned the US would find 'another way' if talks fail.

Iran reframed its Hormuz toll proposal as 'service fees' for navigation and environmental protection.

Iran's senior delegation arrived in Qatar with Central Bank Governor Hemmati, signalling financial terms are central.

Brent crude fell below $100 for the first time since early April; WTI dropped to $91.

Trump posted that he has 'informed my representatives not to rush into a deal' and that 'time is on our side'.

Rubio said from New Delhi the US would have 'a good agreement, or deal with it another way'.

Iran's Baqaei confirmed progress on 'a large portion' of issues but denied an imminent signing.

Netanyahu backed the MOU 'in principle' but insisted on full nuclear dismantlement in any final deal.

Republican senators Cruz, Graham, and Wicker called the emerging deal a 'disastrous mistake'.

Brent crude dropped to $97.72, below $100 for the first time in weeks, on deal optimism.

An Israeli airstrike destroyed two houses in Arzoun, southern Lebanon; one IDF soldier was killed.

US officials said the framework is '95 per cent there' and expect signing within five to seven days.

Khamenei issued a directive that enriched uranium 'should not be sent abroad', contradicting negotiators' disposal offer

US intelligence reported Khamenei communicates only via handwritten messengers from an undisclosed location.

Netanyahu convened an emergency security cabinet, with Israeli officials saying they are 'almost completely cut off' fro

Araghchi declared enrichment discussions at 'almost a deadlock' and said the topic was postponed to later stages.

The Royal Navy positioned mine-clearing forces at Gibraltar; the Pentagon estimates six months to clear Hormuz mines.

Iran claimed it downed an Israeli surveillance drone in Hormozgan province; the IDF said it was 'not familiar with the i

Trump posted that 'time is on our side' and instructed negotiators not to rush, retreating from the 23 May expectation o

A senior US official said Mojtaba Khamenei gave 'general agreement' to MOU terms and that Iran provided written assuranc

IRGC-linked Tasnim stated Iran 'has not agreed to any new measures related to its nuclear programme', directly contradic

Pezeshkian told IRIB that Iran is 'ready to assure the world' it does not seek nuclear weapons, framing the commitment a

Republican senators Graham, Wicker, Cruz, and Cotton attacked the emerging deal as a 'disaster' and 'nightmare for Israe

Israel Hayom reported that Israeli security officials are 'almost completely cut off' from the US-Iran negotiation proce

Fars news agency said Iran will continue managing Hormuz, calling Trump's assertion of toll-free passage 'inconsistent w

Axios published the full 14-point MOU including a 60-day ceasefire, toll-free Hormuz reopening, sanctions waivers, and e

Rubio said 'significant progress but not final progress' and hinted at an announcement within hours.

IRGC-linked Fars News rejected Trump's Hormuz characterisation, insisting Iran retains full control of the Strait.

Iranian officials told the New York Times that Tehran has agreed to a deal for all fighting to stop.

GOP Senators Wicker, Graham, and Cruz called the reported deal terms 'a disaster' for US interests.

Netanyahu raised concerns about the Lebanon clause during a Saturday call with Trump.

Iran closed western airspace through 25 May and Ghalibaf warned of a 'crushing' response if war resumes.

Trump declared a deal with Iran 'largely negotiated', including reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Axios published a 14-point draft MOU covering a 60-day ceasefire, mine clearance, sanctions waivers, and nuclear commitm

Two US officials said Iran agreed to give up its highly enriched uranium stockpile, contradicting Khamenei's retention d

The IRGC rejected Trump's Hormuz claims via Fars News, saying passage 'will not be opened to the enemies'.

Trump cancelled Memorial Day plans and returned to Washington; Pentagon updated recall rosters for possible strikes.

Netanyahu urged Trump to launch strikes rather than sign the deal, expressing concern over the Hezbollah ceasefire claus

Iran's FM spokesperson confirmed sanctions lifting is 'explicitly included' in the draft framework text.

Trump told Axios the odds of a deal are '50/50' and set Sunday as the decision deadline.

Pakistan's Field Marshal Munir concluded Tehran talks, reporting 'encouraging progress toward a final understanding'.

Iran's Foreign Ministry warned that disagreements remain 'deep and significant' despite mediation progress.

The fifth round of Rome nuclear talks ended without breakthrough; Iran rejected civilian investment for enrichment disma

Mediators outlined a 60-day ceasefire extension framework including gradual Hormuz reopening and uranium discussions.

Iran claimed 35 vessels transited Hormuz with IRGC coordination, up from 2-10 per day earlier this month.

Brent crude traded between $101 and $106 intraday before settling near $103-104.

US military and intelligence officials cancelled Memorial Day plans as the administration prepares fresh strikes against

Trump skipped his son's wedding and convened Hegseth and Ratcliffe for a national security meeting.

Trump told Coast Guard graduates it would 'soon be clear' whether a deal was signed or the military would 'finish the jo

Rubio escalated the Hormuz toll dispute to NATO and UN level, discussing a 'Plan B' coalition.

Iran's PGSA published a controlled maritime zone encroaching into UAE and Omani waters.

Iran's Foreign Ministry said gaps remain 'deep and significant' with no timeline for response.

Brent crude fell to $103-104 on diplomatic hopes; futures backwardation signals expected resolution.

Al-Arabiya published a leaked eight-element US-Iran deal framework deferring nuclear, missile, and proxy demands to late

Trump told a Suffern rally the war 'will be over with soon' and Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.

House Republicans cancelled the war powers vote after it became clear the resolution would pass.

Rubio reported 'slight progress' in talks at a NATO meeting but cautioned against exaggerating.

Qatar dispatched mediators to Tehran despite its Ras Laffan facility losing 17% capacity from Iranian attack.

US gasoline hit $4.55 per gallon ahead of Memorial Day, up 50% since the war began.

The CFTC is investigating suspicious oil trades timed to key Iran war decisions.

Iran's PGSA published an expanded maritime zone claiming UAE and Omani waters, with crossing fees up to $2 million in yu

Five GCC states sent a joint letter to the IMO warning vessels not to engage with the PGSA.

Rubio acknowledged 'slight progress' at NATO in Sweden but explicitly rejected Iran's Hormuz toll system.

US intelligence assessed Iran is rebuilding its military faster than expected, with drone production restarted.

Eleven of twelve Hormuz transits on 21 May ran without AIS; five IRGC landing craft left Seerik in convoy formation.

Iran operationalised the Kuh Mubarak terminal east of Hormuz, exporting 6.9 million barrels to China over five months.

Iraq-based drones struck near the UAE's Barakah nuclear plant and Saudi Arabia on 17 May.

House Republicans cancelled a war powers vote after realising they lacked votes to defeat a Democratic resolution compel

CENTCOM released images of fighter jets launching from USS Abraham Lincoln, declaring the carrier strike group at 'peak

Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir called off his planned Tehran trip because a final ceasefire formula had not been reached

Iran stated that no agreement had been reached despite 'narrowing gaps', with enriched uranium disposition and Hormuz to

Brent crude rose to $104.52 per barrel, up 1.89%, as markets weighed mixed diplomatic signals.

Trump set a days-long deadline for Iran to accept terms or face renewed strikes, saying 'we're all ready to go'.

Iran's foreign ministry said the latest US proposal 'reduced the gaps to some extent' but continued reviewing.

Pakistan Army Chief Munir cancelled his Tehran trip after the US and Iran failed to agree on nuclear sequencing.

Al Arabiya reported a draft US-Iran framework had been finalised; neither government confirmed it.

House Republican leadership cancelled a war powers vote after a fifth member signalled support.

An Israeli Channel 14 anchor discussed a commando raid plan to seize enriched uranium near Isfahan without military cens

Pezeshkian warned Iran's economy could collapse within three to four weeks without a ceasefire.

Supreme Leader Khamenei directed that near-weapons-grade uranium must not leave Iran, foreclosing Washington's core dema

Iran restarted drone production during the ceasefire; roughly 50% of drone capability survived, exceeding US intelligenc

Rubio declared Iran's Hormuz toll system renders a diplomatic deal 'unfeasible' and called it 'completely illegal'.

Iran and Oman are negotiating a permanent Hormuz toll system with fees exceeding $1 million per vessel.

Iran's negotiating team said the latest US proposal 'narrowed the gaps to some extent'.

Pakistan Army Chief Munir arrived in Tehran for the highest-level mediation visit since the April ceasefire.

The House votes Thursday on an Iran war powers resolution; Democrats expect to pass it after Rep

Golden flipped.

Iran's Foreign Ministry said Tehran is reviewing Washington's latest response to the Pakistan-mediated ceasefire framewo

US Navy destroyers entered the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the war began, escalating Project Freedom.

Trump told the Coast Guard Academy that Iran faces 'nasty' consequences if it does not accept a deal by the weekend.

US Marines boarded and released the Iran-flagged tanker M/T Celestial Sea in the Gulf of Oman for suspected blockade vio

Iran's IRGC Navy claimed it coordinated 26 vessel transits through Hormuz in 24 hours and published a 'controlled mariti

Israel's defence minister said Israel is ready to bomb Iran once the US gives permission, but analysis suggests Israeli

CENTCOM chief Cooper told Congress the US struck 8,000+ Iranian military targets, setting Iran's defence industry back 9

The IRGC warned it would extend the war 'beyond the region' and Iran's army threatened 'new fronts' with 'new equipment'

Trump gave Iran a 2-3 day deadline, telling reporters he was 'an hour away' from ordering strikes.

Netanyahu objected to the Qatar-Pakistan peace proposal in a tense call with Trump.

Iran's FM Araghchi accused the US of planning to 'restart the war'.

Two Chinese supertankers exited Hormuz with roughly 4 million barrels of crude.

Brent crude fell 5% to roughly $105 per barrel, the largest single-day drop since the ceasefire.

The US Senate advanced the War Powers Resolution 50-47 for the first time, first reported 19 May.

Trump said he is in 'no hurry' to reach a deal, contradicting his 2-3 day ultimatum from 19 May.

Vance said talks have made 'a lot of progress' and framed the outcome as binary: deal or resumed strikes.

Iran's army warned of 'new fronts' and 'new equipment' if the US launches further attacks.

Mojtaba Khamenei framed the war as 'jihad' and called it the 'Third Sacred Defence' on social media.

Chinese and South Korean supertankers exited the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in weeks.

Brent crude fell roughly $4 to $107 on optimism that a deal is approaching.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE jointly condemned fresh Iranian attacks on civilian and economic facilities.

Araghchi posted on X claiming Iran was first to down an F-35, warning of 'many more surprises' if war resumes.

The IRGC stated it 'did not deploy all capacities' and threatened to extend war beyond the region to US and allied facil

Xi and Putin opened a summit in Beijing with Iran as the top agenda item; Xi called resuming hostilities 'inadvisable'.

Chinese companies are delivering weapons to Iran via Pakistan's CPEC corridor and the Caspian Sea, confirmed by US offic

The US rejected Iran's counterproposal as 'insufficient', citing no commitments on enrichment suspension or stockpile ha

The US Navy seized the Skywave, a third shadow fleet tanker carrying an estimated one million barrels from Kharg Island.

Pezeshkian branded IRGC escalation 'madness' and requested an urgent meeting with Mojtaba Khamenei to halt Gulf attacks.

Trump cancelled a planned Tuesday strike on Iran at the request of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Trump issued a two-to-three-day ultimatum demanding complete nuclear dismantlement and transfer of 440 kg of enriched ur

US intelligence suggests Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities based on intercepted communications.

The Senate advanced a war powers resolution 50-47 after Senator Cassidy flipped, citing Congress being 'left in the dark

The UAE confirmed all three drones that struck Barakah nuclear plant on 17 May were launched from Iraqi territory.

Brent crude fell to $111.22 on deal optimism after Trump's cancellation announcement.

Iran launched 'Hormuz Safe', a bitcoin-settled maritime insurance platform, first reported 16-18 May.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council launched the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, claiming sole legal authority over

Trump told reporters there is a 'very good chance' of a deal while instructing the military to remain ready for a 'full,

Iran published revised peace proposal terms demanding reparations, US troop withdrawal, and sanctions relief, explicitly

Pezeshkian publicly aligned with the IRGC's harder line, stating 'dialogue does not mean surrender.'

Brent crude reversed its morning drop, surging to $112.93 as markets repriced the postponement as a compressed escalatio

CENTCOM chief Cooper declared the US had 'derailed Iran's strategy that was 47 years in the making,' intensifying declar

The Houthi Haifa blockade was clarified as a secondary-sanctions-style threat against shipowners, not a physical naval b

Trump cancelled a planned Tuesday strike after Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE asked for two to three days to finalise

Iran submitted a revised 14-point proposal to Pakistani mediators, though it is unclear whether key differences on enric

Gulf states shifted from passive bystanders to active deal-brokers, telling Trump 'if you hit Iran, we will all pay the

Brent crude fell 1.8% to $110.26 as markets priced in reduced short-term escalation risk.

Iran's judiciary reported 29 executions and 6,500 arrests since 28 February; civilian weapons-training rallies continue

China is reportedly transporting weapons to Iran via Pakistan's CPEC corridor, adding a third active resupply route alon

Trump called off a planned Tuesday strike after Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE said they are close to a deal with Tehr

Iran submitted a 14-point counterproposal via Pakistan; the US dismissed it as containing 'only token improvements'.

Trump scheduled a Tuesday Situation Room meeting on military options including Hormuz posture changes.

Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority launched an official X account, formalising Hormuz tolls up to $2m per vessel.

Houthis declared a maritime blockade of Haifa Port after Israeli strikes on Hudaydah and Salif.

Three drones struck the UAE's Barakah nuclear plant on 17 May, first reported before the previous cycle.

Pezeshkian declared 'dialogue does not mean surrender' as state-sponsored weapons rallies spread across Iran.

Iran submitted a revised peace proposal via Pakistan, dropping compensation demands and offering to transfer HEU to a th

Twenty-three tankers were photographed at Kharg Island on 16 May, the highest count since the blockade began, signalling

Iran formalised its Hormuz toll regime through the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, which launched an official social medi

Brent crude swung between $107 and $111 after Iranian media reported, without US confirmation, a temporary oil sanctions

A NYT/Siena poll found Trump's approval at 37% and 64% of voters calling the war a mistake, the lowest readings since th

State-organised rallies in Tehran now include public gun kiosks offering civilian weapons training with assault rifles.

CENTCOM confirmed 84 commercial vessels redirected and 4 disabled under the blockade of Iranian ports.

Iran fired four separate missile salvos at Israel on 18 May; most intercepted, no casualties reported.

Kuwait confirmed drone and missile attacks on Shuwaikh and Mubarak Al Kabeer ports, with material damage but no casualti

Trump posted 'the clock is ticking' and warned Iran 'there won't be anything left of them' on Truth Social.

Iran's armed forces spokesman Shekarchi warned of 'crushing and severe blows' if the US resumes attacks.

Trump spoke with Netanyahu on Sunday; the call focused on the war with Iran.

Iran launched 'Hormuz Safe', a Bitcoin-settled maritime insurance platform targeting $10 billion in revenue.

Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extended 45 days, but Israeli strikes killed at least five in southern Lebanon on 17 May.

The IRGC declared it blocked all Hormuz transit for 24 hours and threatened to 'deactivate' US Gulf bases in the near fu

Pakistan's Interior Minister Naqvi held 90-minute talks with Pezeshkian and met Ghalibaf on 18 May to revive peace talks

Hormuz transits dropped to zero on Sunday morning after a brief spike to ten ships on Saturday.

State Department confirmed new negotiation tracks: a Pentagon security channel on 29 May and political talks on 2-3 June

Saudi Arabia explicitly reserved its 'right to respond at the appropriate time' after intercepting three Iraqi-origin dr

The NYT revealed a second covert Israeli military base in Iraq used to support strikes on Iran.

Trump's 19 May Situation Room meeting to decide on resumed military action was confirmed across multiple outlets.

A drone struck the perimeter of the UAE's Barakah nuclear power plant, causing a fire at an electrical generator; no rad

Trump extended the ceasefire open-ended but warned Iran of a 'very bad time' over Hormuz toll plans.

Netanyahu and Trump discussed renewed military operations in their most intense preparations since the April 8 ceasefire

Iran announced its Hormuz toll mechanism will formally launch on 1 June, with ships already paying up to $2 million per

The IDF struck 100 sites in southern Lebanon despite the 45-day ceasefire extension agreed two days earlier.

US Trade Representative Greer confirmed China committed not to provide material support to Iran.

The USS Gerald Ford returned from a record 233-day deployment, temporarily reducing US carrier presence.

The Iran-US ceasefire expired on 17 May with no extension confirmed and Trump stating he is 'not in favour' of it.

Trump warned Iran of a 'very bad time' as Tehran prepared to formalise its Hormuz toll mechanism.

Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf declared the military 'ready to deliver a well-deserved response to any aggression'.

Khamenei called Trump's demands 'outrageous nonsense' and dismissed him as 'unworthy of a response'.

Iran threatened weapons-grade 90% enrichment if strikes resume, first reported 12 May, now operationally relevant as the

Trump posted 'calm before the storm' imagery on Truth Social showing himself ordering fire on an Iranian-flagged aircraf

Israeli media report Trump will decide within 24 hours whether to resume military operations against Iran.

The Trump administration reportedly asked the UAE to lead a seizure of Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal.

Iran announced a formal Hormuz toll mechanism through its Persian Gulf Strait Authority, collecting fees in yuan.

European countries are reportedly negotiating directly with the IRGC Navy for Strait transit permission.

Brent crude rose to $113 per barrel, up 8% for the week, as the IEA warned of undersupply until October.

Pakistan's Interior Minister Naqvi met his Iranian counterpart in Tehran to restart stalled peace talks.

Khamenei rejected Trump's nuclear proposal as 'excessive and outrageous', vowing to continue enrichment as a sovereignty

Araghchi declared Iran 'the victor in this war' and warned of further economic pain for the United States.

The USS Gerald R

Ford returned to Norfolk after a record 326-day deployment, reducing active carrier presence in theatre.

Reporting emerged that US-Israel strikes on Iran could resume next week.

Trump said he is 'losing patience' with Iran and claimed the US and China are 'aligned' on Tehran.

Bloomberg reported Trump returned from China with little progress on reopening Hormuz; Iran insists on maintaining its s

Israel struck five villages in southern Lebanon and issued displacement orders for nine more, hours after the ceasefire

Araghchi declared enrichment negotiations in 'almost a deadlock' and confirmed the issue was deferred.

The Iranian Army Commander vowed to fight 'until the last drop of blood' despite diplomacy.

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was extended 45 days, with next talks on 2-3 June and a Pentagon security track on 29 May.

The Trump-Xi summit concluded without concrete Iran deliverables; China's readout omitted Iran and Hormuz.

Iran permitted roughly 30 Chinese and Indian vessels through Hormuz under selective corridor protocols since 14 May.

Brent crude surged 3.3% to $109.24 per barrel on 15 May, on track for an 8% weekly gain.

Trump transmitted a formal nuclear proposal to Iran and warned of serious consequences if progress stalled.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei rejected the proposal as 'excessive and outrageous' and called the nuclear programme 'no

Shamkhani offered full denuclearisation, including HEU disposal and inspectors, if all financial sanctions were lifted i

Iran held nuclear talks with France, the UK, and Germany in Istanbul, with France threatening JCPOA snapback before Octo

Trump privately told Fox News he was 'not in favour' of the ceasefire and called it 'a favour to Pakistan'.

Iran fired four missile salvos at Israel on 16 May; most intercepted, no casualties reported.

Israel struck Houthi-held ports at Hodeidah and Salif in Yemen with 15 jets and roughly 35 munitions.

Trump said a 20-year nuclear suspension would be 'enough', retreating from the permanent enrichment halt demand.

Trump described acquiring Iran's 440 kg of enriched uranium as 'more for public relations than anything else'.

Trump said he may ease sanctions on Chinese companies buying Iranian oil, though no decision was announced.

The US and China issued contradictory accounts of what was agreed at their summit on Iran's nuclear programme and Hormuz

Iran fired four missile salvos at Israel on 15 May, most intercepted, with no casualties reported.

Iran-linked drones struck two Kuwait ports, causing material damage but no casualties.

At the BRICS ministers meeting, Araghchi doubted US negotiating seriousness, confirmed uranium storage talks with Russia

Trump and Xi concluded a two-day summit in Beijing, agreeing Iran must never have nuclear weapons and Hormuz must remain

China pledged not to supply military equipment to Iran and offered to help broker a peace deal.

Iran seized a vessel off Fujairah and towed it toward Iranian waters; a cargo ship sank near Oman after an attack.

China's Foreign Ministry called the war a 'disaster' and urged that the window for talks not be lost.

Iran's senior vice president stated the Strait of Hormuz 'belongs to Iran' and Tehran would not give it up 'at any price

The Bahrain-led UN resolution on Hormuz gained 112 co-sponsors, though China and Russia have not confirmed whether they

CENTCOM chief Cooper testified that 90% of Iran's defence industrial base, 90% of naval mines, and 161 vessels were dest

Cooper disputed reports that Iran retains 70% of pre-war missiles, calling the assessment 'not accurate'.

Trump signalled from Beijing that military operations are 'to be continued', with aides confirming he is weighing resump

The House war powers resolution failed 212-212 for the third time, with three Republicans crossing party lines.

A bipartisan letter from 52 senators and 177 House members demanded zero uranium enrichment in any Iran deal.

Hezbollah struck Rosh Hanikra with an FPV drone during Israel-Lebanon peace talks, wounding two Israeli civilians.

The IEA reported global oil inventories are falling at a record 4 million barrels per day, first reported 13 May.

Trump and Xi agreed in Beijing that Iran must never have nuclear weapons and the Strait of Hormuz must remain open.

Xi linked Taiwan cooperation to any Iran assistance, delivering his sharpest warning on the issue.

Chinese vessels transited Hormuz under IRGC 'management protocols', including a supertanker stranded for two months.

A second Japanese-linked tanker passed through Hormuz after direct contact between Takaichi and Pezeshkian.

An Indian-flagged cargo vessel was sunk off the Oman coast, the third Indian ship attacked since the war began.

BRICS foreign ministers met in New Delhi but failed to reach consensus, with UAE blocking pro-Iran language.

Vance confirmed 'progress' in Iran negotiations but described the talks as 'very sensitive'.

UKMTO confirmed a vessel was seized off Fujairah and is heading toward Iranian territorial waters during the ceasefire.

Iran accused Kuwait of attacking an Iranian boat and detaining four citizens; Araghchi asserted Iran's 'right to respond

Israeli strikes killed at least 12 civilians in southern Lebanon on 14 May despite the active ceasefire.

A Hezbollah explosive drone struck Israeli territory, wounding several civilians requiring hospitalisation.

Araghchi warned states 'colluding' with Israel would be 'held to account', escalating threats against Gulf partners.

Brent crude eased to $105.87/bbl from $107.05 as summit diplomacy briefly tempered risk premiums.

Iran's economic data entered the analysis: 53.7% inflation, food prices up 115%, rial at a record 1.9 million per dollar

Trump arrived in Beijing for a two-day summit with Xi; Iran and Hormuz reopening are formally on the agenda.

VP Vance told reporters the US is 'making progress' in Iran negotiations, contradicting Trump's 'life support' character

Hezbollah launched 105 attack waves using fibre-optic-guided drones immune to electronic jamming, the largest coordinate

Energy Secretary Wright told Congress Iran is 'weeks away' from weapons-grade enrichment; nuclear experts disputed the f

The Senate rejected a war powers resolution 50-49, with Murkowski becoming the third Republican to break with the presid

A Chinese supertanker exited Hormuz toll-free, described by Cosco as a 'gesture from Tehran' timed to the summit.

Iran declared combat readiness and set five preconditions for resuming talks, including sanctions lifting and war repara

ISW assessed Iran retains roughly 70% of pre-war missile stockpiles and has restored 30 of 33 Hormuz missile sites.

Iran's BG Akrami Nia declared the military at 'highest level of readiness' with 'no room for retreat'.

Bloomberg satellite imagery confirmed Kharg Island oil jetties were empty on 8, 9, 11, and 12 May, the first prolonged e

The IRGC Navy claimed its Hormuz operational area expanded from a 20-30 mile corridor to a 200-300 mile crescent, first

Mojtaba Khamenei replaced his chief of staff Hejazi with loyalist Khamoushi, removing an opponent of IRGC institutional

Iran's parliamentary spokesperson threatened 90% weapons-grade enrichment if the US resumes strikes, first reported 12 M

The 40-nation Hormuz defence ministers' meeting convened with UK committing HMS Dragon and Australia pledging E-7A Wedge

Trump arrived in Beijing for 14-15 May talks with Xi, accompanied by CEOs from Apple, Tesla, Boeing, BlackRock, and Gold

Trump stated he does not think about Americans' financial situation when negotiating with Iran, calling nuclear preventi

Iran rejected Kuwait's Bubiyan Island infiltration claims as 'baseless'; Kuwait summoned the Iranian ambassador and rese

The IEA's monthly report confirmed global inventories are being drawn at record pace, with cumulative losses exceeding 7

Israeli strikes killed eight in Lebanon including two children, hitting 40+ Hezbollah sites; the truce expires midnight

Pentagon war costs were revised upward to $29 billion, with Harvard estimating potential costs of $1 trillion.

Reuters revealed Saudi Arabia conducted covert airstrikes on Iranian territory in late March, first reported 12 May.

The Wall Street Journal reported the UAE secretly struck Iran's Lavan Island oil refinery in early April.

Kuwait announced it arrested four IRGC officers who attempted to infiltrate Bubiyan Island on 1 May.

Pakistan was confirmed to have sheltered Iranian military aircraft at an airbase near Rawalpindi during the conflict.

The Pentagon told Congress it has plans to escalate if necessary, with war costs at $29 billion and 45-50% of key muniti

Trump departed for Beijing for a summit with Xi on 14-15 May, with Iran central to the agenda.

Israeli Iron Dome batteries and personnel were confirmed deployed to the UAE, the first acknowledged Israeli military de

Iran's parliamentary security committee threatened enrichment to 90% weapons-grade if the US resumes strikes.

Trump aides told CNN he is 'more seriously' considering resuming combat, including striking remaining targets.

The UK and France convened 40 defence ministers to plan a multinational Hormuz reopening mission.

April US consumer inflation surged to 3.8%, a three-year high, with gasoline at $4.55 per gallon.

Qatar accused Iran of 'weaponising' Hormuz to 'blackmail' Gulf states, a shift from a historically neutral actor.

The IRGC expanded its claimed Hormuz zone from 20-30 miles to 200-300 miles, challenging any reopening plan.

The Pentagon revised the war's cost to $29 billion, a $4 billion increase in two weeks.

US naval forces fired on Iranian-flagged oil tankers attempting to circumvent the blockade on 12 May.

Washington imposed fresh sanctions on Iranian nuclear research with potential military applications, separate from the 1

Brent crude rose to $106.74, up roughly 2.5% on ceasefire collapse fears, with WTI above $101.

The UN warned that 45 million additional people face hunger from sustained Hormuz disruption.

An Iraqi oil tanker transited Hormuz on 11 May under an Iranian-designated route; three supertankers exited with transpo

The UAE intercepted two Iranian drones on 11 May, the first drone incidents targeting the Emirates since the 4-5 May att

Trump rejected Iran's counter-proposal as 'totally unacceptable', declaring the ceasefire on 'massive life support' with

Defence Secretary Hegseth said US forces are 'locked, loaded and ready to go'; two military options are under active con

Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf warned the military is ready for a 'lesson-giving response' to any aggression.

Hormuz transits collapsed from 17 vessels on 10 May to 6 on 12 May, roughly 10% of pre-war baseline.

Trump announced a plan to suspend the federal gas tax; national average gasoline is $4.52 per gallon.

The US Treasury sanctioned 12 entities facilitating IRGC oil sales to China, days before the Trump-Xi summit.

Mojtaba Khamenei issued directives for 'powerful confrontation' despite US confirmation he is 'severely injured'.

Iran and Saudi Arabia's foreign ministers spoke twice in 24 hours, coordinating on US-Iran talks before the Trump-Xi sum

Brent crude surged to $107.67 per barrel, up 3%; Aramco warned disruption could last into 2027.

Iran warned of 'decisive and immediate response' to planned French and British naval deployments at Hormuz.

Khamenei sided with Pezeshkian against IRGC Gulf strikes, though the Guards retain de facto state control.

An IDF soldier was killed by a Hezbollah drone inside Israeli territory; the army conceded it has no viable counter.

A second oil slick was detected near Kharg Island; 80,000 barrels leaked and the larger slick is drifting toward Saudi w

Pimco's CIO warned the Fed may need to raise rates due to war-driven oil prices.

Iran's Foreign Ministry called US demands 'unreasonable' and parliament mocked claims of proximity to a deal.

Iran's counter-proposal structures negotiations in three phases, deferring nuclear discussions to an indefinite final st

China confirmed the Trump-Xi summit for 14-15 May, with Iran and Hormuz dominating the agenda.

Iran announced a licensing regime requiring foreign operators to pay fees for undersea cables beneath Hormuz.

Iran's medicine crisis deepened sharply, with state media reporting drug prices up 30-300% since the war began.

Russia's Caspian drone corridor was confirmed active, with a GRU plan for 5,000 fibre-optic unjammable drones.

ACLED data showed Iranian strike events fell 36% from the previous week, with only two events recorded on 9 May.

Trump rejected Iran's counter-proposal as 'totally unacceptable' after Tehran demanded Hormuz sovereignty, war reparatio

A fourth round of US-Iran talks in Oman lasted three hours and was described as 'difficult but constructive'.

Iran launched drone strikes on Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait simultaneously on 10 May, with no fatalities reported.

The IRGC declared missiles and drones 'locked onto American targets' and 'awaiting the order to fire'.

Israel killed 51 people in Lebanon in 24 hours, including two medics, bringing post-ceasefire deaths to 552.

Netanyahu announced plans to phase out US military aid to zero within a decade.

Brent crude rose 3.16% to $104.49 on the diplomatic breakdown.

Iran transmitted its formal response to the US proposal via Pakistan, describing it as a 'clarification of views', not a

Pezeshkian declared Iran will 'never bow our heads before the enemy', framing diplomacy as strength.

Hezbollah launched 105 attack waves on Israel on 10 May, the most intense day since the war began.

A Qatari LNG tanker completed the first Hormuz transit since the war began, using a route approved by Tehran.

Aramco confirmed the East-West Pipeline is at full 7 million barrel-per-day capacity with no remaining buffer.

Mojtaba Khamenei issued updated military guidelines emphasising 'maintaining pressure on adversaries'.

A bulk carrier was struck by an unknown projectile 23 nautical miles northeast of Doha, Qatar, sparking a fire with no c

Kuwait intercepted hostile drones in national airspace at dawn on 10 May, with no attribution claimed.

The IRGC Aerospace Force commander declared missiles and drones 'locked onto American targets', awaiting a firing order.

Iran warned that countries enforcing US sanctions will 'face problems' when their vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz.

Israeli strikes killed 39 in Lebanon on 10 May, with Hezbollah retaliating via drone strikes into northern Israel.

Iran's deputy parliament speaker declared: 'Our policy is neither compromise nor surrender; it is battle with America.'

Russia confirmed shipping drone components via the Caspian Sea to rebuild Iran's arsenal, with four Iranian ports workin

The IRGC Navy warned of a 'heavy assault' on US bases and enemy ships if Iranian vessels are attacked again during the c

Rubio and Witkoff met Qatar's prime minister in Miami, with Qatar emerging as a second mediator alongside Pakistan.

Iran declined to commit a timeline for responding to the 14-point memorandum of understanding.

Hezbollah claimed 26 attacks on 9 May including two cross-border strikes inside Israel, the first since the April ceasef

The UK deployed HMS Dragon for a potential Hormuz shipping protection mission, explicitly distancing from NATO.

A Qatari LNG tanker began the first Hormuz crossing since the war started, with Iranian approval.

The US sanctioned three Chinese satellite imagery firms for enabling Iranian strikes on US forces.

Hezbollah launched 105 attack waves on Israel on 9 May, including two strikes inside Israel for the first time since the

Israel killed at least 18 people in southern Lebanon on 9 May, the deadliest day since the invasion.

Iran had not formally responded to the US 14-point MoU as of 9 May evening despite Rubio's deadline.

Satellite imagery showed the Kharg Island oil spill expanding to 71 sq km, roughly 80,000 barrels, advancing toward Gulf

A Qatar LNG tanker began the first Hormuz crossing since the war started, testing whether commercial transit can resume.

Mojtaba Khamenei sustained kneecap, back and cranial injuries from the 28 February strikes, with powers delegated to IRG

CENTCOM confirmed the naval blockade remains fully enforced, with 58 commercial vessels redirected and four disabled sin

Trump warned of 'Project Freedom Plus', an expanded escort operation, if Iran deal talks fail.

Iran's formal response to the 14-point MoU remains pending with no timeline given.

The IRGC holds effective veto over any agreement, complicating Iran's negotiating position.

Iran rejected characterisations of IRGC dominance as a 'coup', defending its leadership succession.

Rubio called Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority 'unacceptable' and incompatible with any peace framework.

Sporadic clashes between US and Iranian naval forces continued in the Strait of Hormuz on 9 May.

Russia's GRU drafted a plan to supply Iran with 5,000 unjammable fibre-optic drones, first reported 8 May.

NCRI published satellite imagery of an alleged tritium extraction facility in Semnan province on 9 May.

Mokhber, adviser to Khamenei, compared Hormuz control to 'an atomic bomb', first reported 8 May.

Iran's parliament mocked the MoU as 'Operation Trust Me Bro'; the foreign policy committee called it 'an American wish-l

Israeli strikes killed at least 31 in southern Lebanon on 9 May, one of the deadliest days since the March invasion.

A satellite-detected oil slick of 45-80 sq km was first spotted near Kharg Island around 6 May, with an estimated 80,000

US F/A-18s disabled two Iranian tankers near Jask by firing precision munitions into their smokestacks.

Trump threatened 'one big glow coming out of Iran' and called the Hormuz strikes a 'love tap'.

Iran's Foreign Ministry 'strongly rejected' several MoU terms; Araghchi said Iran will 'never bow to pressure'.

Rubio said the US expects Iran's formal MoU response 'today' and flagged the PGSA as 'unacceptable'.

UAE air defences engaged two ballistic missiles and three drones from Iran; three people wounded.

Brent spiked to $108.80, crashed to $96.80, then settled around $101-104 after volatile trading.

The Trump-Xi summit (14-15 May) is expected to prioritise Iran, potentially delaying tariff progress.

UAE air defences engaged a new Iranian missile and drone salvo on 8 May, hours after the Hormuz clashes.

Iran's formal MoU response remains pending at midday, past the expected 48-hour deadline.

Brent crude swung between $96.8 and $108.8 intraday before closing at $101.65, up 1.59%.

The Trump-Xi summit (14-15 May) is expected to be dominated by Iran, crowding out tariff talks.

Israeli strikes killed at least 12 in Lebanon on 8 May, including a paramedic and a child.

Bloomberg assessed Iraq-based militias as a direct ceasefire threat, citing 600+ attacks on US facilities.

Rubio met the Pope on 8 May to discuss the Iran war amid White House-Vatican tensions.

IRGC forces attacked three US destroyers transiting the Strait of Hormuz with missiles, drones and fast boats on 7 May.

CENTCOM struck Iranian military facilities in Bandar Abbas, Qeshm Island and Minab in response, targeting C2 and launch

Trump called the exchange 'just a love tap' and said the ceasefire remains in effect.

Iran 'strongly rejected' several terms of the 14-point MoU; Rezaei demanded war reparations as a precondition.

Pezeshkian and Qalibaf united to demand the dismissal of Foreign Minister Araghchi, alleging he acts as an IRGC proxy.

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait restored US access to military bases and airspace, reversing restrictions imposed on 4 May.

Iran established a 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority' demanding tolls exceeding $1 million per ship.

Pezeshkian confirmed a 2.5-hour meeting with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the first proof of life since his March ap

Pezeshkian then demanded the US lift its naval blockade before any Hormuz negotiations.

Brent crude fell 4% to $97.47, below $100 for the first time since the conflict began.

Iran is expected to deliver its formal MoU response via Pakistani mediators on Friday 8 May.

Trump told PBS that any deal requires Iran to ship its enriched uranium to the US and close underground facilities.

France moved the Charles de Gaulle carrier into the Red Sea for a 40-country coalition Hormuz mission.

China's Wang Yi demanded an 'immediate and full ceasefire' and Hormuz reopening in talks with Iran's FM Araghchi in Beij

Brent crude briefly dropped to $96-99 intraday on 6 May before stabilising at $101.95, the sharpest decline of the confl

Washington Post satellite analysis revealed 228+ structures damaged at US military bases, far exceeding official disclos

The US conceded Iran's sequencing demand: Hormuz first, nuclear later, in the MOU framework.

Iran struck Kurdish opposition camps in northern Iraq with drones on 5-6 May, the 114th such attack since the war began.

GPS jamming near Fujairah spiked to 671 incidents; 146 of 167 vessels transiting dark on 5 May.

A US-GCC draft UNSC resolution was tabled requiring Iran to cease attacks, mining, and tolling in Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia denied US access to Prince Sultan Airbase and Saudi airspace for Project Freedom, forcing Trump's escort pa

A CMA CGM container ship was struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, injuring crew members.

The IRGC announced safe passage corridors near Larak island and warned other areas of the strait may be mined.

Israel struck Beirut's Dahieh targeting a Radwan Force commander, the first Beirut strike since the 16 April ceasefire.

Pakistan's FM Dar said Iran's formal MOU response is expected Thursday 8 May via Pakistani mediators.

Netanyahu convened his security cabinet and demanded all enriched uranium be removed from Iran.

Brent crude fell 7.8% to $101.27, the sharpest single-day decline of the conflict, on deal expectations.

The White House reportedly nears a one-page MOU with Iran covering enrichment moratorium, sanctions relief, and Hormuz r

Trump threatened to resume bombing 'at a much higher level and intensity' while pausing Project Freedom for negotiations

Trump announced a ceasefire with the Houthis brokered by Oman, removing one axis of the multi-front conflict.

Iran's Foreign Ministry said no formal response had been issued to the US proposal; exchanges continue via Pakistan.

Israeli strikes killed at least 11 people across southern and eastern Lebanon, with displacement orders expanding north

China pressed Iran on ceasefire and Hormuz during the Araghchi-Wang Yi meeting in Beijing, eight days before the Trump-X

Araghchi met Wang Yi in Beijing; China called for a 'comprehensive ceasefire' and Hormuz reopening.

Brent crude fell 6.4% to $102.75/bbl, the sharpest single-day decline of the conflict.

Iran formalised a Strait Authority with an email-based permit system and Majlis legislative backing.

The IRGC denied responsibility for UAE attacks on 5 May despite UAE confirmation of incoming fire.

US facilities in Iraq have been hit more than 600 times since the war began.

The UN Security Council held closed consultations on Hormuz under 'threats to international peace'.

Carnegie assessed that Iran retains clandestine nuclear reconstitution capability despite infrastructure destruction.

Trump paused Project Freedom after one day, citing 'great progress' on a deal with Iran.

Rubio declared Operation Epic Fury concluded; US posture now 'defensive in nature'.

Iran launched a 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority' requiring vessel registration and tolls.

The US tabled a UNSC draft resolution on Hormuz, co-authored by all five GCC states.

Araghchi arrived in Beijing for the first wartime meeting with Wang Yi.

Brent crude fell 4-5% to roughly $109/bbl on Trump's pause and deal rhetoric.

A cargo vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz; UKMTO incidents now total 42.

Defence Secretary Hegseth declared the ceasefire 'not over' despite Iran attacking US forces more than ten times since 8

UAE air defences intercepted 15 missiles and 4 drones in a second consecutive day of Iranian attacks.

Saudi Arabia condemned Iran's UAE strikes 'in the strongest terms'; Crown Prince MBS spoke directly with Sheikh Mohamed

Iran's FM Araghchi arrived in Beijing for the first wartime meeting with Wang Yi, days before Trump's 14-15 May summit w

US intelligence assessed Iran's nuclear breakout timeline is unchanged at up to one year despite the war.

Project Freedom proved a military success but commercial failure, with only two US-flagged merchants transiting Hormuz.

A Houthi missile struck near Ben Gurion Airport; Israel retaliated by striking Hodeidah Port, risking the Houthi-US ceas

Iran accused the US of killing five civilians on 'passenger boats' during the Hormuz transit, constructing a counter-nar

US and Israeli officials are weighing retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile launchers and energy facilities after Fujai

Israel restored IAF readiness to its highest level for both defence and attack.

Iran's FM Araghchi travelled to Beijing for consultations on the war and nuclear file coordination.

Brent crude pulled back to $112.85, down 1.3%, as markets assess the ceasefire as tested but not definitively broken.

IRGC joint command issued a formal red line: US forces 'will be attacked if they intend to approach and enter' the Strai

Somali pirates and Houthis are cooperating to target Red Sea shipping using Houthi-provided surveillance technology, fir

Iran fired cruise missiles, drones, and sent small boats against the Project Freedom escort force; CENTCOM reported sink

Iran struck the UAE with 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones; one drone ignited a fire at the Fujaira

Two US-flagged merchant vessels completed the first escorted transit of Hormuz under the new operation.

Trump declined to confirm the ceasefire remains in effect and warned Iran would be 'blown off the face of the Earth' if

A Houthi ballistic missile struck near Ben Gurion Airport after Arrow and THAAD failed to intercept; Israel retaliated w

China formally invoked its blocking statute against US sanctions on five teapot refineries, the first such order.

Brent crude surged 5% to $115; US gasoline hit $4.46 per gallon, the highest since the war began.

Iran fired two drones at the ADNOC tanker M.V

Barakah in the Strait of Hormuz; the UAE called it a terrorist attack.

The UAE intercepted three of four Iranian cruise missiles and reported a drone strike that ignited a fire at Fujairah Oi

Dubai, Sharjah and Abu Dhabi issued missile alerts, the first multi-city warning since the 8 April ceasefire.

The IRGC claimed two missiles struck a US Navy frigate near Bandar-e-Jask; CENTCOM denied any ship was hit.

Iran's top security official declared Project Freedom a ceasefire violation and warned approaching forces would be attac

The IRGC denied that any US merchant vessels transited the Strait, calling CENTCOM's claim 'outright lies'.

Brent crude surged to $115.01 per barrel, up 5% on the day, while Hezbollah claimed 11 strikes on Israel.

Five supertankers carrying Saudi, UAE and Kuwaiti crude transited Hormuz under US Navy escort without Iranian interferen

Iran's unified military command threatened to attack any US forces entering Hormuz, escalating from the earlier parliame

A tanker was hit by unknown projectiles 78nm north of Fujairah, the 25th maritime incident since the war began.

UKMTO reported attacks on two additional ships in the Strait of Hormuz on 4 May.

A UK-flagged cargo ship reported a swarm attack by small Iranian vessels near Sirik, the first since the ceasefire.

A Houthi missile struck near Ben Gurion Airport; Arrow and THAAD systems failed to intercept.

China formally blocked US sanctions on five teapot refineries (first reported 2 May), a first for extraterritorial sanct

Trump announced 'Project Freedom' to escort neutral ships through Hormuz with 15,000 troops, destroyers and 100+ aircraf

Iran's parliamentary security chief warned Project Freedom 'will be considered a violation of the ceasefire'.

The IRGC declared 'full standby' for hostilities resumption, claiming full missile and drone replenishment.

A cargo ship was attacked by multiple small craft near Sirik, the 24th maritime incident since the war began.

Iran confirmed it received the US counter-response to its 14-point proposal via Pakistan and is reviewing it.

Trump rejected the 14-point proposal as 'not acceptable', saying Iran has 'not yet paid a big enough price'.

Brent crude fell to $101.70 on peace hopes, while US gasoline hit $4.45 per gallon.

China's Commerce Ministry issued a formal order blocking US sanctions on five Chinese refineries buying Iranian oil.

The IRGC intelligence department set a 30-day deadline for the US to end its blockade of Iranian ports.

Rubio dismissed Iran's 14-point proposal, demanding full enrichment halt and missile programme dismantlement.

Nuclear talks scheduled for Rome on 3 May were postponed; the 4 May round was already cancelled.

The Iranian rial hit a record low at 1,830,000 per dollar, with IMF projecting 68.9% inflation.

Hezbollah confirmed domestic production of fibre-optic-guided FPV drones undetectable by radar.

Iran's foreign minister Araghchi cancelled the 4 May negotiation round, citing a 'technical reason'.

Nick Stewart, an ex-FDD lobbyist, joined the US negotiating team at Kushner's behest.

Trump shifted from 'can't imagine it's acceptable' to 'I'm looking at it', warning strikes could resume.

Israel issued evacuation orders for 11 Lebanese towns and struck 120 targets, killing 73 since 30 April.

Iran's parliament advanced a 12-article Hormuz sovereignty law mandating tolls and cargo seizure powers.

An Iranian supertanker carrying 1.9 million barrels evaded the US blockade and reached the Asia-Pacific.

Iran's oil storage crisis is accelerating, with shut-ins projected at 1.5 million bpd by mid-May.

Trump rejected Iran's 14-point proposal, posting that Iran has 'not yet paid a big enough price'.

Iran's counterproposal demands a 30-day timeline, reparations, sanctions lifting, and defers nuclear talks.

The IRGC declared 'full standby' for resumed hostilities, warning of 'surprise measures'.

The US fast-tracked $8.6 billion in emergency arms sales to Qatar, Kuwait, Israel, and the UAE.

Spirit Airlines ceased all operations, citing wartime jet fuel prices doubling to $4.51 per gallon.

Xinhua published details of Iran's proposal; China's UN ambassador said Hormuz is 'sure to be high on the agenda' at the

The US sanctioned a China-based oil terminal and two vessel managers in its 12th round of Iran oil enforcement.

Trump declared Iran 'decimated' with no navy, air force, radar, or leadership in a 90-minute speech at The Villages, Flo

USS Gerald R

Ford departed the Middle East, reducing US carrier strike groups from three to two.

Mojtaba Khamenei called for 'economic and cultural jihad', framing the conflict as shifting to economic warfare.

China officially responded to Iran's war-resumption warning, pressing for diplomatic resolution.

US naval blockade redirected three additional Iranian ships in 20 hours, bringing the total to 48 in 20 days.

A Chatham House assessment found the war is reshaping Saudi strategy on Hormuz, Houthis, and OPEC

[First reported 1 May]

Israel struck southern Lebanon on 2 May; 73 killed and 163 injured since 30 April despite ceasefire extension.

Iran's military declared a restart of hostilities 'likely' and forces 'fully prepared for any new adventures from the Am

Trump said there would be 'no early end' and the US could be 'better off' without a deal.

Spirit Airlines cancelled all flights after jet fuel doubled to $4.51 per gallon, the first major US airline failure in

The Pentagon disclosed its blockade has denied Iran $4.8 billion in oil revenue, with 31 tankers stuck in the Gulf.

The State Department's 12th sanctions round targeted Qingdao Haiye terminal; 86% of Iran-oil tankers now sanctioned.

Hegseth threatened Iran would 'pay the CONSEQUENCE' for Houthi support

[First reported 1 May]

The Pentagon ordered roughly 5,000 troops withdrawn from Germany

[First reported 1-2 May]

Iran's revised proposal expanded to 14 points and dropped Hormuz-first sequencing, softening its previous demand that th

Trump publicly rejected the proposal as 'not satisfactory' and called Iranian leadership 'very disjointed' but did not w

Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf moved to oust Foreign Minister Araghchi over an alleged IRGC backchannel to commander Va

Trump's 1 May letter to Congress claimed hostilities 'terminated' under the War Powers Resolution; the Senate failed 47-

Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon killed 32 on 1 May, the heaviest day since the 17 April ceasefire.

The Treasury issued OFAC General License W warning that paying Iran's transit tolls triggers sanctions.

Pezeshkian reportedly warned the SNSC the economy would collapse in three to four weeks without a ceasefire.

The Trump administration declared hostilities 'terminated' under the War Powers Resolution, claiming the ceasefire stops

Iran delivered a revised peace proposal to Pakistani mediators on 1 May, maintaining Hormuz-first, nuclear-later sequenc

Brent crude whipsawed from a wartime high of $126 to $107 after the proposal raised settlement hopes.

A Washington Post poll found war disapproval at levels comparable to peak Iraq and Vietnam opposition, with only 32% app

CNN revealed at least 16 US military installations were damaged across five countries, with real costs estimated at $40-

Israel-Hezbollah exchanges intensified in southern Lebanon despite the ceasefire, killing at least 16 people including c

Trump administration declared hostilities 'terminated' to bypass the 60-day War Powers deadline.

Republicans left for recess without challenging the administration's authority to continue operations.

Mojtaba Khamenei declared nuclear and missile capabilities 'national assets' to be protected.

Reuters reported the IRGC military council exercises de facto government control, sidelining Pezeshkian.

USS Gerald R

Ford departed the Middle East after a record 295-day deployment, reducing carrier presence to two.

UAE exited OPEC and OPEC+ effective today, freeing capacity from 3.2M to 5M bpd by 2027.

At least 26-34 shadow fleet tankers breached the US blockade, moving an estimated $910M in oil.

Senate rejected the sixth war powers resolution 47-50, with Collins becoming the first Republican to break ranks.

Hegseth testified that the ceasefire pauses the 60-day War Powers clock, a legal theory most scholars reject.

CENTCOM will brief Trump on three options: a strike wave, special forces HEU seizure, and greater Hormuz control.

Trump signalled a possible restart of military operations, saying 'we might need' to resume the war.

Republican senators are drafting a separate AUMF; Murkowski set an 11 May deadline for a 'credible plan'.

Pezeshkian denounced the blockade as 'intolerable'; an unnamed official warned of 'unprecedented action'.

Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first substantial public statement in weeks, declaring a 'new chapter' for the Gulf.

Air defence activity was reported over Tehran, attributed to reconnaissance drones.

Reuters confirmed the IRGC has seized de facto control of Iranian state functions, first reported 29 April.

USS Gerald Ford departing the Middle East after a record 309-day deployment, reducing carriers to two.

Ghalibaf resigned from Iran's negotiating team after IRGC intervention, first reported 24 April.

UAE formally exited OPEC effective 1 May, removing roughly 12% of cartel output from coordination.

IAEA chief Grossi confirmed roughly 200 kg of 60% HEU likely remains at Isfahan tunnels, first reported 29 April.

Q1 US GDP came in at 2.0%, below the 2.3% forecast; gasoline hit $4.30 per gallon.

CENTCOM briefed Trump on three options: infrastructure strikes, seizing Hormuz, and a special forces operation to secure

Brent crude surged 7.1% to a wartime high of $126.41 per barrel before paring to $121-125.

Trump declared the blockade 'a success' and urged Iran to 'just give up'.

Trump threatened to cut US troops in Germany after Chancellor Merz criticised the blockade strategy.

Hegseth's second day of Senate testimony; House hearing confirmed $25 billion in war costs and 14 US deaths.

Ghalibaf mocked the blockade; Iran's military said restraint was 'to give diplomacy a chance'.

Windward reported dark maritime activity surging to 148 events, with five dark tankers staging at Chabahar.

Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz-for-blockade proposal and demanded nuclear guarantees as a precondition for any deal.

Trump met Chevron and commodity trading executives to discuss extending the naval blockade for months.

Brent crude surged to $118-120 per barrel; US gasoline hit $4.18-4.23 per gallon, a new 2026 high.

The USS Gerald Ford will depart the Middle East after 10 months, reducing US carrier presence from three to two.

The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective 1 May, the largest defection in OPEC history.

Iran's rial hit a record low of 1.8 million per dollar, down 12% in one week.

The War Powers 60-day deadline arrives today with no congressional authorisation for the conflict.

Trump declared Iran 'militarily defeated' during a state dinner with King Charles in Washington.

Hegseth testified before Congress; the Pentagon disclosed $25 billion spent and roughly 50% of JASSM missiles used.

The IAEA confirmed roughly 200 kg of 60%-enriched uranium likely remains in tunnels at Isfahan.

Iran's SNSC held an emergency meeting warning the economy cannot survive more than six to eight weeks of blockade.

Reuters reported the IRGC has 'seized power', with Ahmad Vahidi as the pivotal decision-maker.

Brent crude surged to $116-117 per barrel, up 5%, an eighth consecutive session of gains.

Iran's rial hit a record low of 1,810,000 per dollar, falling 15% in two days.

Trump posted 'No more Mr Nice Guy' with a gun image, warning Iran to 'get smart soon' on a nuclear deal.

Brent crude surged to $114.64, the eighth consecutive session of gains, breaching $115 intraday.

Treasury issued a formal advisory warning banks on sanctions risk from Chinese teapot refineries processing Iranian oil.

Israeli strikes killed eight in southern Lebanon including three rescue workers; the Lebanese president called it a war

The IDF destroyed two Hezbollah tunnels near Qantara with 450 tonnes of explosives.

A Japanese supertanker completed the first crude carrier transit of Hormuz since the war began.

Houthi drones struck MSC Orion roughly 600 km from the Yemen coast, the longest-range attack recorded.

Trump claimed Iran informed the White House it is in a 'state of collapse' and wants the blockade lifted.

Iran's army spokesperson declared the country remains in a war situation with updated target lists.

The War Powers Act 60-day deadline arrives today; Democrats are exploring a lawsuit if war continues.

Trump's approval hit a second-term low of 34%; war support fell to 34%.

Foreign Policy and Reuters reported Iran's wartime government has unified around IRGC-led consensus.

The first loaded supertanker since the war began cleared the Strait of Hormuz via a Tehran-approved route.

Treasury sanctioned 35 entities and froze $344 million in cryptocurrency under 'Operation Economic Fury'.

Iran transmitted a Hormuz-for-blockade proposal via Pakistan; Rubio rejected it on nuclear grounds.

The UAE announced withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+, effective 1 May, citing the Hormuz closure.

GCC leaders held an extraordinary summit in Jeddah, the first in-person meeting since the war began.

Brent crude surged to $111.16 per barrel, up 3% on the day.

The War Powers Resolution 60-day deadline arrives 1 May with no congressional authorisation passed.

US gasoline hit $4.18 per gallon, up over $1 since the war began.

Iran's oil storage capacity shrank to 12-22 days, with forced production cuts likely by mid-May.

UN Secretary-General Guterres warned Hormuz disruption risks a global food emergency.

Bahrain led a joint statement from dozens of countries demanding immediate Hormuz reopening.

Brent crude rose to $111.16 per barrel, up 2.71%, approaching March highs.

Iran formally rejected Pakistan as mediator, calling Islamabad 'not a suitable intermediary'.

Tehran condemned US seizure of tankers Majestic X and Tifani as 'piracy'.

Kharg Island nearing storage saturation with only 13 million barrels of spare capacity.

Israel deployed an Iron Dome battery to the UAE, first reported 26 April.

Rubio rejected Iran's Hormuz proposal, insisting any deal must include nuclear concessions.

Trump convened a Monday Situation Room meeting; officials called the blockade 'working'.

Araghchi met Putin and GRU chief Kostyukov in St Petersburg; Putin pledged full support.

Araghchi admitted no consensus exists in Iran's leadership on how to address US demands.

Hormuz transits dropped to 8 on 27 April, down from 19 two days earlier.

Israel expanded Lebanon strikes to the Beqaa Valley; 14 killed in deadliest day since ceasefire.

German Chancellor Merz said the US is 'being humiliated' by Iran's negotiating skill.

Rubio publicly rejected Iran's Hormuz proposal, insisting on nuclear concessions as part of any deal.

Araghchi met Putin, Lavrov, and GRU chief Kostyukov in St Petersburg; declared US war goals unachieved.

Trump scheduled a Monday Situation Room meeting to review Iran options and diplomatic pathways.

Israel struck the Beqaa Valley for the first time since the ceasefire, killing 14 in southern Lebanon.

German Chancellor Merz said the US is being 'humiliated' and Iran is 'negotiating very skilfully'.

Iran fired warning shots at an Indian-crewed chemical tanker near Oman, raising questions about 'friendly' shipping prot

Goldman Sachs raised oil forecasts and extended Hormuz normalisation to end of June.

Iran proposed a two-stage deal via Pakistan: reopen Hormuz first, defer nuclear negotiations to a later phase.

Trump rejected the proposal, insisting the blockade remains until a 'complete deal' including nuclear issues.

The IRGC declared Hormuz blockade maintenance as Iran's 'definitive strategy', contradicting the civilian offer.

Araghchi arrived in St Petersburg for Monday talks with Putin and Lavrov on the war.

Iran accessed its sovereign wealth fund and reinstated currency subsidies for essential goods.

Brent crude rose to $108.11, up 2.64%, as Hormuz remained closed and talks stalled.

The NPT Review Conference opened in New York with Iran listed to attend despite IAEA access terminated since February.

Iran's Deputy Speaker Nikzad declared Hormuz will never return to pre-war conditions, citing Mojtaba Khamenei's direct o

Araghchi arrived in Moscow after visiting Oman's Sultan Haitham, his first Gulf stop since the war began.

Iran transmitted written red lines to the US via Pakistan covering nuclear issues and Hormuz sovereignty.

Trump said Iran can 'call on the phone' to negotiate, defending his cancellation of the Pakistan envoy trip.

A Mashhad mural depicted Mojtaba Khamenei among confirmed dead figures, sparking renewed death speculation.

Brent crude rose 2.14% to $107.58 on the Nikzad statement; cumulative supply losses approaching one billion barrels.

Israeli strikes killed 14 in southern Lebanon; forced evacuations issued beyond the buffer zone.

Araghchi departed Pakistan for Moscow to consult Putin on ceasefire and negotiations, extending mediation beyond Oman.

Pakistan insisted US-Iran mediation is 'moving ahead' despite Trump cancelling his envoy delegation.

Pezeshkian told Pakistan's PM that Iran will not negotiate under blockade pressure or threats.

Trump said the WHCD shooting will not deter him from 'winning the war in Iran'.

Bloomberg assessed Hormuz transit as 'virtually impossible'; shipowners say normalisation is months away.

USS Pinckney intercepted shadow fleet tanker M/V Sevan, bringing total blockade redirections to 37.

The NPT Review Conference opens tomorrow with Iran's working paper demanding prohibition on nuclear facility strikes.

Iran formally rejected negotiations while the US blockade persists, calling the ceasefire extension 'meaningless'.

Araghchi met Oman's Sultan Haitham in Muscat, Iran's first Gulf ministerial visit since the war began.

Hormuz traffic fell to single digits; 800+ freighters are stranded and the strait is 'virtually impassable'.

Iran's joint military command warned of a 'strong response' to continued blockade operations.

Israeli strikes hit four locations in southern Lebanon; Hezbollah claimed two attacks on IDF at Taybeh.

The NPT Review Conference opens tomorrow with 440.9 kg of 60% enriched uranium under IAEA blackout.

Trump cancelled the Witkoff-Kushner delegation (first reported 25 April), saying Iran's offer was 'not enough'.

Trump cancelled the Witkoff-Kushner delegation; Iran submitted a counter-proposal within minutes.

Araghchi departed Islamabad for Oman and Russia, routing through the traditional back-channel venue.

Ghalibaf resigned as chief negotiator after the IRGC blocked his flexible positions (first reported 24 April).

USS Pinckney intercepted the sanctioned M/V Sevan, the first physical shadow fleet enforcement.

Iran's oil storage is approaching capacity; well shut-ins risk permanent damage to 300,000-500,000 bpd.

The NPT Review Conference opens 27 April with IAEA verification at Day 58 of blackout.

Houthis fired three anti-ship ballistic missiles in the Red Sea; no hits reported.

Trump cancelled the Witkoff-Kushner delegation to Pakistan, saying 'we have all the cards'.

Araghchi departed Islamabad for Muscat and Moscow after delivering five demands including Hormuz sovereignty.

Hegseth called the Iran war 'a gift to the world' and said the blockade is 'growing and going global'.

Iran resumed commercial flights from Tehran for the first time in 56 days.

Lloyd's List documented 11 Iranian tankers departing the Gulf of Oman since 13 April, contradicting blockade claims.

Brent crude reached $105-106 with a $25-plus spot premium over futures, a 16% weekly gain.

IDF killed 15 or more Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon despite the ceasefire extension.

USS Rafael Peralta intercepted an Iranian-flagged ship, the 32nd confirmed interception since the blockade began.

Iran's Foreign Ministry formally denied any planned direct meeting with the US in Islamabad.

Vance cancelled his Islamabad trip after Ghalibaf withdrew, leaving Witkoff and Kushner as US representatives.

Polymarket odds for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by 30 April collapsed to 6%.

CNN analysis identified the War Powers Act 60-day deadline arriving 1 May with no compliance signal from the White House

Brent crude held stable at $105-106 per barrel, roughly flat from the previous session.

Araghchi arrived in Islamabad with Iran's official negotiation roadmap and met Deputy PM Dar.

US Treasury sanctioned Hengli Petrochemical and approximately 40 shadow fleet vessels.

Treasury Secretary Bessent ruled out renewal of Iran and Russia oil sanctions waivers.

Baker Hughes guided that Hormuz may not fully reopen until the second half of 2026.

Brent crude crossed $106 per barrel, on track for an 18% weekly gain.

Three senior Iranian officials issued coordinated unity statements countering the 'fractured' narrative.

The NPT Review Conference opens 27 April with Iran's nuclear working paper submitted.

Iran's FM Araghchi departed Tehran for consultations in Islamabad, Muscat, and Moscow.

Trump dispatched Witkoff and Kushner for weekend talks in Pakistan; Vance on standby.

The Senate defeated a fifth war powers resolution 46-51, with three Republicans drawing a line at 1 May.

The White House began preparing a legal argument that the ceasefire pauses the 60-day clock.

Trump explicitly ruled out nuclear weapon use for the first time since his 7 April threat.

Hegseth said the blockade lasts 'as long as it takes' and announced a second carrier joining.

Hormuz transit collapsed to five ships in 24 hours, down from a pre-war average of 140.

USS George H.W

Bush arrived in the Middle East, creating the highest carrier concentration in over 20 years.

Brent crude surged above $106 per barrel, up roughly 5% from the previous session.

Trump declined to set a timeline for ending the conflict, saying 'don't rush me'.

China, Russia, and Iran held a joint IAEA meeting; Iran declared enrichment non-negotiable.

Iran's parliament speaker dismissed the ceasefire as meaningless while the US blockade persists.

The War Powers 60-day deadline on 1 May drew analyses noting possible Republican defections.

Bloomberg reported administration officials fear a rush to end the war risks a deal weaker than the 2015 JCPOA

[DELAYED DETECTION: published 23 April]

Ghalibaf reportedly resigned from the negotiating team after clashing with the IRGC over a Qatari proposal; Iran denied

Brent crude rose to $105.38, spiking above $107 on the Ghalibaf report before settling.

Kharg Island recorded zero active loading on 18 April, the first pause since the conflict began.

Trump declared 'the clock is ticking' for Iran and ruled out using nuclear weapons.

The Pentagon is developing contingency targeting plans for Iran's Hormuz defences, including energy facilities.

Iraq's oil revenue dropped more than 70%; it has begun trucking crude through Syria.

Indonesia publicly discussed levying tolls on Malacca Strait transit, following the IRGC precedent.

Trump ordered the US Navy to 'shoot and kill' any boat laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

US forces seized a third tanker this week, the Majestic X, in the Indian Ocean carrying Iranian crude.

Iran confirmed first Hormuz transit toll revenues deposited into the Central Bank, collected in cryptocurrency and yuan.

A leaked Pentagon briefing assessed mine-clearing could take six months; Iran reportedly cannot locate all its own mines

Treasury Secretary Bessent reversed course again, extending Iran and Russia oil sanctions waivers for 30 days.

The UK and France convened a 30-nation military planning conference at Northwood, rejecting US escort arrangements.

Sentinel-2 imagery captured 33 IRGC fast-attack craft deployed in formation near the Kargan coast in Hormuz.

The White House confirmed IRGC ship seizures do not violate ceasefire because the vessels were not American or Israeli.

Ghalibaf formally linked any ceasefire to both US blockade removal and a halt to Israeli operations on all fronts.

Pezeshkian called for 'dialogue and agreement' while the IRGC simultaneously seized ships and enforced the strait closur

New IRGC operational commanders who replaced those killed in strikes are structurally refusing Pakistan mediation.

Brent crude rose to $103.38 per barrel, the fourth consecutive session of gains driven by seizure fears.

IRGC-linked Tasnim framed undersea internet cables through Hormuz as a 'fatal weakness' for Gulf states.

Trump stated there is 'no time frame' for ending the Iran war, denying midterm elections drive decisions.

US officials gave Iran a 3-5 day deadline to negotiate before resuming strikes, around 25-27 April.

Defence Secretary Hegseth forced Navy Secretary Phelan to resign mid-blockade over chain-of-command disputes.

The Pentagon told Congress clearing Hormuz mines could take six months; two minesweepers departed Japan.

The Senate blocked a fifth War Powers Resolution 46-51; the 60-day deadline approaches around 1 May.

Brent crude surged 3.3% to $101.73, driven by Hormuz vessel seizures and stalled peace talks.

The Army chief publicly named Mojtaba Khamenei as Commander-in-Chief in a coordinated IRGC anniversary statement.

The IRGC seized MSC Francesca and Epaminondas in the Strait of Hormuz, attacking a third vessel (Euphoria).

Brent crude dropped to $89 on the ceasefire extension, then spiked to $100.16 on the vessel seizures.

A Ghalibaf adviser called the indefinite ceasefire extension 'a ploy to buy time for a surprise strike'.

Tasnim reported Iran will not attend Pakistan talks, calling negotiations 'a waste of time'.

US Treasury sanctioned 14 targets in Iranian weapons and UAV procurement networks.

Xi Jinping publicly called for reopening the Strait of Hormuz through diplomatic means.

Iran began issuing 'white SIM cards' for favoured groups while 90 million remain offline (first reported 20 April).

An IRGC gunboat fired on a container ship near the Strait of Hormuz hours after the ceasefire extension.

Iran's FM Araghchi called the blockade 'an act of war' and warned of 'new cards on the battlefield'.

The IRGC warned Gulf oil production facilities could be targeted from neighbouring territory.

Bessent stated Kharg Island oil storage will be full 'in days', forcing well shut-ins.

A UK-France military planning conference opened at Northwood with 30+ nations.

CNN reported Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen for six weeks; deepfake videos used, first reported 21 April.

Brent rebounded to $96-99 as IRGC attacks offset ceasefire optimism.

Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely, maintaining the naval blockade and citing Iran's 'seriously fractured' govern

Iran formally refused to attend Islamabad Round 2; Vance's Pakistan trip was cancelled.

Ghalibaf's adviser dismissed the extension as 'meaningless' and called the blockade 'no different from bombing'.

Brent crude dropped from $96 to $89 after the extension removed the immediate risk of resumed strikes.

Iran's parliament advanced 12-article 'Hormuz Sovereignty' legislation codifying toll rights and passage restrictions.

Israel recalled Ambassador Huckabee to Washington to coordinate contingency attack plans.

Trump told CNBC he 'expects to be bombing' Iran and called ceasefire extension 'highly unlikely'.

Ghalibaf warned Iran has prepared 'new cards on the battlefield' and rejected talks under threat.

Iran officially denied any delegation has travelled to Islamabad; CNN and NYT report one is expected Wednesday.

US forces boarded the sanctioned tanker M/T Tifani in the Bay of Bengal, the second vessel seized in days.

Iran granted field commanders more autonomy over Iraqi militias under decentralised command.

The IRGC-civilian split deepened, with Vahidi criticising Ghalibaf's diplomacy, first reported 20 April.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran is 'positively reviewing' Islamabad II participation.

IRIB formally denied any Iranian delegation has travelled to Islamabad.

Trump threatened to destroy 'every single Power Plant and Bridge' in Iran if no deal is reached.

Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner are expected to depart for Islamabad on Tuesday.

Petraeus assessed that the ceasefire is 'likely to be extended' as both sides prepare for talks.

Hormuz transit collapsed to three vessels per day, with 800 ships stranded in the Gulf.

Collins and Tillis signalled the first Republican break on war powers, first reported 19 April.

Iran publicly rejected Islamabad II talks, citing the Touska seizure and continued US blockade.

The Supreme Leader reportedly approved a Ghalibaf-led negotiating team for Islamabad on Tuesday.

Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner departed for Pakistan for Round 2 talks despite Iran's public refusal.

Unconfirmed reports emerged of Iranian drone attacks on US naval vessels in the Sea of Oman.

Iran's military command vowed imminent retaliation for the Touska seizure, calling it 'armed piracy'.

Ghalibaf warned Iran has been 'preparing to reveal new cards on the battlefield' during the ceasefire.

Iran reported 3,375 war dead; US gasoline hit $4.04 per gallon, up 28% year-on-year.

Trump stated ceasefire extension is 'highly unlikely' past Wednesday evening Washington time.

Trump threatened to destroy 'every bridge and power plant' in Iran if no deal by Tuesday night.

Hormuz vessel traffic dropped from 20-plus transits on Saturday to zero on Sunday.

CMA CGM confirmed warning shots fired at a French-flagged vessel in the Strait on Saturday.

Ghalibaf publicly backed the IRGC closure: 'impossible for others to pass while we cannot.'

ISW assessed the IRGC now controls Iranian decision-making over political officials.

Iran's foreign ministry confirmed it has 'no plans' for a second round of Islamabad negotiations.

CNN sources say an Iranian delegation will 'fairly likely' arrive in Pakistan on Tuesday despite the public refusal.

Trump dispatched Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner to Islamabad for a second round of talks beginning Tuesday.

Iran's joint military command vowed retaliation for the Touska seizure once crew safety is ensured.

Brent crude surged 5.6% to $95.42 per barrel on renewed Hormuz disruption and the Touska seizure.

Maritime intelligence detected seven VLCCs off Chabahar loading an estimated 14 million barrels east of Hormuz.

Trump repeated his threat to destroy every Iranian bridge and power plant if no deal is reached.

USS Spruance fired on and seized the Iranian cargo ship Touska in the Gulf of Oman after six hours of warnings.

Iran launched retaliatory drones toward US warships in the Sea of Oman; interception results unconfirmed.

Tehran formally rejected a second round of Islamabad talks, citing the US naval blockade as a ceasefire breach.

Trump threatened to destroy every Iranian bridge and power plant, calling Iran's actions a 'total violation'.

Brent crude surged 6% to $95-97 as Hormuz escalation reversed the prior session's 10% crash.

Energy Secretary Wright said US gasoline may not fall below $3 per gallon until 2027.

Thirty-five vessels reversed course near Hormuz in 36 hours; 919 ships now accumulated in the Gulf.

Trump threatened to destroy all Iranian bridges and power plants if Iran rejects the US deal offer.

Trump confirmed Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner will travel to Islamabad on Monday for second-round talks.

Iran signalled it may not send a delegation while the US naval blockade persists, risking a no-show on Monday.

The IRGC confirmed the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.

Hezbollah's leader warned the Lebanon ceasefire 'cannot be one-sided' and that fighters remain 'hands on trigger'.

Israel established a 10 km buffer zone inside Lebanon, barring residents of 55 villages from returning.

Trump stated from Air Force One that he may 'start dropping bombs again' if no deal is reached by ceasefire expiry.

Iran's parliament speaker Qalibaf claimed 'progress' in US negotiations; fresh talks expected Monday in Pakistan.

Deputy FM Khatibzadeh said no date is set for face-to-face talks and criticised US 'maximalist' demands.

FM Araghchi explicitly denied Trump's claim that Iran agreed to total enrichment cessation and uranium transfer.

ACLED data showed Iranian strikes down 77% versus the prior week, the lowest sustained level since the war began.

The OFAC General Licence U expired today; Treasury confirmed no renewal, ending the last legal route for Iranian crude s

India summoned the Iranian ambassador after IRGC gunboats fired on two Indian-flagged tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

CENTCOM deployed AH-64 Apache gunships to patrol the Strait of Hormuz, hunting drones and providing visible presence.

Brent crude rebounded to $95-96 after plunging to $88 on the brief Hormuz opening; waiver lapse adds pressure.

Ashab al-Yamin, assessed as an IRGC front, claimed 15 attacks across six European countries since March.

Iraqi Kurdistan sustained 16 attacks since the ceasefire began, with three Kurdish fighters killed on 17 April.

GPS jamming in the Gulf eased briefly, with a clean six-hour window, though the broader environment remains high-risk.

IRGC gunboats fired on the Indian-flagged VLCC Sanmar Herald and forced two ships to turn back from Hormuz.

Trump threatened to 'start dropping bombs again' if no deal by the 22 April ceasefire expiry.

The US military is preparing to board and seize Iran-linked oil tankers in international waters worldwide.

Mojtaba Khamenei issued a defiant statement declaring Iran's navy 'ready to inflict new bitter defeats'.

The administration reversed course, extending the Russian oil sanctions waiver through 16 May; the Iran waiver lapses to

Monday Islamabad technical talks confirmed, with negotiators arriving Sunday.

A $20bn cash-for-uranium proposal emerged, up from $6bn, with some HEU to ship to a third country (first reported 17 Apr

Iran reversed its Hormuz opening, reimposing 'strict management and control of the armed forces' and accusing the US of

Trump warned the US would resume strikes if no deal, stating there are 'only two alternatives: bombing them viciously or

Iran announced a 'security fee' regime for Hormuz transit, replacing traditional tolls with mandatory coordination and b

Iran cancelled the annual Army Day parade, citing ceasefire conditions 'no different to war'.

A France-UK summit of 51 nations announced a multinational naval mission for Hormuz mine-clearing and merchant escort, f

Windward reported dark activity events at a crisis high of 162 and only 8 Hormuz transits on 17 April.

Trump claimed Iran agreed to stop enrichment and hand over its enriched uranium; Iran's foreign ministry denied any uran

Ghalibaf accused Trump of '7 claims, 7 lies' and threatened to re-close Hormuz if the US blockade continues.

The next round of US-Iran talks is scheduled for Monday 21 April in Islamabad, one day before the ceasefire expires.

The IRGC Hormuz toll committee charged $2 million per tanker but received zero payments, causing internal dissatisfactio

Iran's oil sanctions waiver expires 19 April with Treasury confirming non-renewal.

The Lebanon ceasefire was violated within hours; an Israeli drone killed one person in Kounine.

Brent crude partially recovered to approximately $96 from the $88 crash.

Iran declared Hormuz 'completely open' for commercial shipping during the Lebanon ceasefire, with IRGC-designated routes

Only 4-8 vessels transited Hormuz on the first day, against a pre-war daily average of 130 ships, with tolls above $1 mi

Brent crude plunged 11% to $88 per barrel, the largest single-day oil drop since the war began.

Trump said the US naval blockade of Iranian ports 'will remain in full force' until a comprehensive deal is complete.

Iran's deputy foreign minister rejected any temporary ceasefire at Antalya, demanding a comprehensive regional settlemen

US strikes on Ras Issa port in Yemen killed 74-84 people including five paramedics in secondary strikes.

The Paris Hormuz summit expanded to 50 nations planning a freedom-of-navigation initiative, with the US absent.

France and the UK co-chaired a 40-nation Paris summit planning a defensive naval mission for Hormuz, excluding the US.

Pakistan, Saudi, Turkish, and Egyptian foreign ministers met at Antalya to coordinate the next US-Iran negotiation round

The Lebanon ceasefire held overnight but the Lebanese army reported Israeli shelling and drone attacks within hours.

Iran's foreign ministry welcomed the Lebanon ceasefire, crediting Pakistan's mediation and framing it within the bilater

An Iran-linked tanker breached the US blockade using AIS spoofing with false GPS coordinates and a fake vessel identity.

Trump said a deal is 'looking very good' and talks could resume this weekend in Islamabad.

Hormuz blockade spillover reached the Malacca Strait as vessels reroute through Southeast Asian lanes.

Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, effective 16 April 21:00 GMT, after Trump called Netanyahu and Lebanese

The US House rejected a war powers resolution 213-214, with only one Republican (Massie) voting for it.

Field Marshal Munir met Pezeshkian, Ghalibaf, and Araghchi in Tehran and visited Iran's central military headquarters.

Iran's military command threatened to block all shipping in the Gulf, Sea of Oman, and Red Sea if the US blockade persis

US strikes on Ras Issa port in Yemen killed 74-84 people, the deadliest single Operation Rough Rider attack.

Windward data showed Hormuz transits fell to 15 per day, with US blockade compliance at 100% and Siri Island storage on

ACLED data confirmed Iranian fire rate declined 77% from the prior week average, with only two strike events on 15 April

Munir landed in Tehran with a US message; Pakistani officials briefed a 'major breakthrough on the nuclear front' within

Hegseth and Caine issued an explicit 'bombs and blockade' ultimatum, calling US forces 'postured to restart combat opera

The White House publicly rejected reports it had requested a ceasefire extension; Bloomberg says both sides privately le

Bessent confirmed the Russian oil sanctions waiver will also lapse on 19 April, broadening 'Economic Fury' beyond Iran s

OFAC sanctioned 24+ entities in the Shamkhani oil network and sent secondary-sanctions warning letters to two Chinese ba

Trump announced Israel-Lebanon talks for Thursday; Hezbollah called the effort 'futile' and Israeli strikes continued.

Houthis claimed a joint missile attack on Israel with Iran and Hezbollah; the IDF intercepted it with no casualties.

The White House publicly rejected reports that Washington had requested a formal two-week ceasefire extension; negotiati

Trump privately indicated a preference for a 48-hour breakthrough over a two-week extension, tightening rather than reli

Iran's Foreign Ministry said enrichment level is 'negotiable', the first substantive concession since Islamabad talks fa

Pakistan's Prime Minister launched a four-day Riyadh, Doha and Ankara tour to coordinate mediator positions ahead of pos

ACLED data show Iranian strike rates fell 63% week-on-week, with six events on 14 April against zero US-Israeli strikes.

Windward recorded 19 Hormuz transits on 14 April with blockade-breaking VLCC activity; CENTCOM's 'fully implemented' cla

CENTCOM declared the Iranian oil blockade fully implemented on Day 2; the tanker Rich Starry was turned back twice.

Pakistan's army chief Munir met Supreme Leader Khamenei in Tehran in a coordinated mediation push alongside Gulf outreac

AP reported that Washington and Tehran are weighing a two-week ceasefire extension; the White House has not confirmed.

IAEA Director Grossi called the framework talks 'an illusion of an agreement' over the five-versus-twenty-year enrichmen

Treasury sanctioned former IRGC intelligence chief Shamkhani's network under a new 'Economic Fury' secondary-sanctions c

The Senate blocked a fourth War Powers resolution 47-52; the 60-day deadline expires end of April.

Israel killed 20+ in southern Lebanon via a triple-tap strike; Iran fired about 30 missiles at Israel overnight.

Iran's military warned it will block all shipping in the Persian Gulf, Sea of Oman, and Red Sea if the US blockade conti

Pakistan's army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir landed in Tehran to mediate a restart of US-Iran talks.

Israel struck over 200 Hezbollah infrastructure sites in southern Lebanon in 24 hours, killing at least 13 civilians.

Iran estimated its war losses at $270 billion and demanded reparations from five regional states.

Iran's foreign ministry stated that enrichment is a sovereign right, but enrichment levels remain negotiable.

Brent crude rose to $96.80, recovering from a 4% decline on the previous session's talks optimism.

EIA raised its 2026 Brent projection to $96 per barrel, assuming the conflict does not persist past April.

CENTCOM declared all Iranian seaborne trade halted within 36 hours of the blockade's start; two tankers turned back at C

Trump told Fox News the war is 'close to over' and 'something could be happening' within two days in Pakistan.

The IMF cut global growth forecasts, warning the conflict could trigger a recession through energy and fertiliser costs.

A growing number of House Republicans indicated they would support a war powers resolution at the 29 April deadline.

China's foreign ministry condemned the blockade as 'dangerous and irresponsible', deepening the US-Beijing rift.

Brent crude settled at $94.79, down 4%, as markets priced in resumed negotiations over blockade duration.

The Chinese-owned sanctioned tanker Rich Starry completed Hormuz transit carrying 250,000 barrels of methanol.

The US Treasury confirmed the 30-day Iran sanctions waiver will expire on 19 April without renewal.

Iran's central bank warned of 180% inflation, two million additional unemployed, and economic collapse within weeks.

A bulk carrier was struck by two projectiles in the Gulf of Oman, extending the maritime threat zone beyond the Strait.

Trump hinted talks could resume within 48 hours in Islamabad, though nothing is confirmed.

Twelve Democratic senators now co-sponsor war powers resolutions; Congress returns from recess this week.

Israel and Lebanon held their first direct diplomatic talks in over 30 years in Washington.

Russia withdrew almost all Bushehr nuclear plant staff, warning of Chernobyl-scale radiological risk from strikes.

Mossad chief Barnea publicly declared regime change the mission's objective for the first time.

The IRGC claimed its strategic arsenal is 'fully replenished' and warned of 'unrevealed military capabilities'.

The enrichment gap at Islamabad was revealed: the US demanded 20 years, Iran offered 5.

The IEA declared the largest oil supply disruption in history, with global supply down 10.1 mb/d.

Xi Jinping proposed a four-point Middle East peace framework, positioning China as alternative mediator.

Egypt's FM headed to Washington as part of a Saudi-Egypt-Pakistan-Turkey mediation effort.

A US-sanctioned Chinese tanker transited Hormuz unchallenged, revealing that the blockade cannot cover Chinese-linked ve

China's Defence Minister declared Hormuz 'open for us' and condemned the blockade as 'dangerous and irresponsible'.

Saudi Arabia urged the US to lift the blockade, warning it could trigger a Houthi closure of the Bab el-Mandeb.

Iran's FM Araghchi phoned Oman's FM to discuss ceasefire revival; Pakistan proposed a second round of talks for 16 April

Congress returned with 12 Democratic senators backing war powers resolutions; Democrats will force floor votes this week

Brent crude retreated to $96-98 from the $101.82 blockade spike; spot dated Brent remains at $132 reflecting physical ti

France and the UK will co-host a summit this week to plan a multinational Hormuz naval mission separate from the blockad

CENTCOM began enforcing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports at 14:00 GMT on 13 April.

Hormuz shipping collapsed to near-zero on blockade day; two tankers reversed course after the deadline.

Trump claimed on 14 April that Iran has called wanting to negotiate, saying there is 'still plenty of room for a deal'.

Twelve Democratic senators now back war powers resolutions; an anonymous House Republican signalled possible GOP defecti

Brent crude surged 7% to $103.72 on the blockade, then retreated to $97.45 on 14 April.

Hezbollah launched 105 attack waves against Israel on 13 April, the most intense day since the war began.

The IRGC has blocked Pezeshkian's appointments and assumed de facto control of government functions.

CENTCOM began enforcing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports at 14:00 GMT.

Iran's military and IRGC issued a joint statement threatening 'no port in the region will be safe' if the blockade conti

Trump threatened to 'eliminate' Iranian fast-attack vessels and target power plants and water desalination facilities.

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz halted; 3,200 vessels remain stranded west of the strait.

Brent crude surged 8% to $103; WTI hit $105; US gasoline reached $4.12 per gallon.

France and the UK announced a conference on a multinational Hormuz freedom-of-navigation mission.

Turkey's FM Fidan floated a 45-to-60-day ceasefire extension if negotiations progress.

The WSJ reported Trump is considering resumption of limited strikes on Iran after the Islamabad talks collapsed.

CENTCOM blockade enforcement begins at 14:00 GMT with mine-clearing operations underway using USS Peterson and USS Murph

Gulf vessel count contracted sharply to 624, down 201 in one day, as ships leave the Persian Gulf.

Congress returns Monday with a $30 billion war-funding fight and planned war powers votes in both chambers.

ISW/CTP reports Iran fired a single drone at Bahrain on 11 April, consistent with declining fire and partial ceasefire a

Israel seized entrances to Bint Jbeil in south Lebanon; 4 killed in Maarab.

CENTCOM formalised the Iranian port blockade, effective 13 April 14:00 GMT, but preserved transit for non-Iranian-bound

The IRGC declared the blockade a ceasefire violation and threatened a 'deadly vortex' against approaching military vesse

Brent crude surged 8% to $102-103 on the Monday opening, crossing the $100 threshold.

The UK refused to join the US blockade and is forming a separate 30+ nation coalition with France.

Two supertankers reversed course in Hormuz as the Islamabad talks collapsed, ending the tentative 11 April reopening.

A Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile was fired toward the Gulf of Aden on 13 April.

Iran's food inflation reached 105%; the government issued its largest banknote denomination and warned of payroll diffic

Trump ordered an immediate US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz with no exceptions for allies.

Iran re-closed Hormuz to oil traffic, citing Israeli strikes on Lebanon as a ceasefire violation.

Iran declared it has 'no plan for a next round of negotiations' and is 'in no hurry'.

Saudi Arabia restored its East-West pipeline to full 7 million bpd capacity, the primary Hormuz bypass.

Israeli strikes killed 29 or more across southern Lebanon overnight; Netanyahu rejected a Hezbollah ceasefire.

Brent crude closed at $94-97/bbl; analysts project Monday opening above $100 after pricing in the blockade.

Iran's Gharibabadi claimed Iran holds the 'upper hand'; Tehran signalled no further round is planned.

Trump threatened a full naval blockade of Iran hours after the talks broke down.

Israeli strikes killed Hezbollah intelligence chief Makled and aide Harshi in Beirut overnight.

Iran warned that continued Lebanon strikes render the ceasefire meaningless.

Two supertankers reversed course at Hormuz's Larak Island checkpoint as the talks collapsed.

IRGC issued a 'last warning' that any military vessel attempting Hormuz passage will face severe consequences.

Islamabad talks ended without agreement; Vance departed after presenting 'final and best offer'.

Enrichment confirmed as core impasse: Iran's 10-point proposal demands acceptance; Trump insists on zero.

Expert-level technical talks extended one day with Pakistani mediation; written proposals exchanged.

Two US Navy destroyers transited Hormuz for first time since the war; mine-clearing operations began.

IRGC threatened 'strong response' to military Hormuz transit and denied it occurred.

Three oil supertankers transited Hormuz on 11 April, the first major commercial movement since the war.

US intelligence indicates China preparing MANPADs shipment to Iran; Trump warned China.

Islamabad talks began Saturday afternoon; first direct US-Iran negotiations since 1979.

Iran tabled four non-negotiable conditions: Hormuz sovereignty, war reparations, asset release, regional ceasefire.

White House denied Iran's claim that asset release was a pre-agreed condition before talks.

Israel rejected discussing a Hezbollah ceasefire at next week's Washington-Lebanon talks.

Early unconfirmed reports suggest limited movement on Lebanon strike limits and asset unfreezing.

Trump warned warships are being 'loaded up' if talks fail.

Hezbollah fired 31 attacks against Israeli forces; Israel killed 10 in southern Lebanon strikes.

Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner arrived in Islamabad; Ghalibaf set two preconditions before substantive talks.

Hormuz transit fell to two ships on 10 April; Iran admits it cannot locate all mines.

US intelligence reports China preparing MANPAD shipments to Iran within weeks.

Trump stated Hormuz will reopen 'fairly soon' with or without Iran's cooperation.

Lebanon-Israel ambassadors held their first direct phone contact ahead of 15 April talks.

Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israel, damaging a Byzantine church in Nahariya.

Iran's military vowed the US and Israel 'will not escape unpunished'.

March CPI released at 3.3% year on year; gasoline accounted for three-quarters of the 0.9% monthly increase.

Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner arrived in Islamabad for proximity talks with Ghalibaf and Araghchi at the Serena Hotel.

Iran set two preconditions for substantive talks: a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of frozen assets.

Pentagon war funding request halved from $200 billion to $80-100 billion amid bipartisan opposition.

Brent crude rose 4% to above $97, reversing the initial ceasefire decline.

FDD 40-day assessment concluded that a third to over half of Iran's missile arsenal survived the campaign.

ISIS satellite imagery showed new roadblocks at all three Esfahan tunnel entrances protecting an estimated 220 kg of 60%

March CPI released at 3.3% year on year; gasoline prices accounted for three-quarters of the 0.9% monthly increase.

Kuwait accused Iran of launching seven drones at oil facilities and power stations, causing significant material damage.

Mojtaba Khamenei declared 'decisive victory' and announced Hormuz management 'will enter a new phase'.

Ghalibaf set preconditions for Islamabad talks: Lebanon ceasefire and release of frozen assets.

Israel struck a government building in Nabatieh, killing 13 Lebanese security personnel; Hezbollah fired missiles at Ash

Brent crude rose 4% to above $99, reversing the initial ceasefire-driven decline.

Russian-flagged VLCC Arhimeda made a rare transit through Hormuz into the Gulf, initially listing Kharg Island as destin

Vance departed Washington for Islamabad; formal US-Iran talks begin Saturday morning local time.

Netanyahu authorised direct negotiations with Lebanon; Washington meeting planned for next Tuesday.

Iran officially warned of sea mines in Hormuz and announced alternative routes via Larak Island.

Windward analysis: all Hormuz transits operate under IRGC coordination; ~3,200 vessels backlogged.

ISIS satellite imagery shows roadblocks installed at all three Esfahan tunnel entrances protecting ~220 kg of 60% HEU.

Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly incapacitated in Qom; IRGC triumvirate holds sole command authority.

CISA advisory confirmed Iranian hackers disrupting US water and energy infrastructure PLCs.

VP Vance leads US delegation to Islamabad alongside Kushner and Witkoff; Ghalibaf and Araghchi lead for Iran.

Trump declared 'total and complete victory' while warning the military is 'loading up for its next conquest'.

Israel killed 254 in Lebanon in Operation Eternal Darkness; Netanyahu asserted the ceasefire does not cover Lebanon.

Hezbollah fired rockets at Ashdod, the deepest strike of the conflict; sirens sounded in Tel Aviv and Haifa.

Iran attacked five Gulf states after the ceasefire; Kuwait suffered infrastructure damage at oil and power facilities.

Only 4-9 vessels transited Hormuz in 48 hours; Iran demands crypto tolls of approximately $1 per barrel.

US gasoline hit $4.16 per gallon; Brent futures settled at $95.92 with physical spot at $124.68.

Brent crude hit $100.99, reversing most of the post-ceasefire crash; physical spot remained at $124.68.

Zero oil tankers transited Hormuz on 9 April; Iran capped passage at 15 vessels per day.

Iran's Deputy FM Khatibzadeh admitted Iran nearly retaliated overnight before Pakistan intervened.

Hezbollah resumed rocket fire on northern Israel, declaring its response will continue until aggression ceases.

Israel claimed it killed Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem, then retracted to a senior aide; status unconfirmed.

The IMO rejected Iran's toll system as a 'dangerous precedent' under UNCLOS; Oman and Greece also rejected it.

The Iranian delegation arrived in Islamabad; talks start Friday with a 15-day negotiation window.

The IRGC Navy published a mine-avoidance map designating alternative corridors through Hormuz.

Bahrain, UAE, and Kuwait reported fresh Iranian strikes on oil infrastructure on the morning of 9 April.

Trump threatened resumed strikes 'bigger, and better, and stronger' if ceasefire terms are not met.

Araghchi stated Washington 'cannot have both' a ceasefire and Israeli operations in Lebanon.

Vance confirmed Lebanon is excluded, calling Iran's interpretation a 'legitimate misunderstanding'.

Ghalibaf accused the US of three violations, injecting enrichment into ceasefire compliance.

Oil rebounded 3% to Brent $97.39; physical spot remained at $124.68, signalling unresolved supply crisis.

Iran's Lavan refinery was struck hours after the ceasefire; UAE Mirage 2000-9 jets are the suspected platform.

Iran retaliated against UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar with missiles and drones.

Kuwait intercepted 28 drones but reported severe damage at Kuwait Petroleum Corporation facilities.

Iran re-closed Hormuz after Israel's Lebanon strikes, issuing radio warnings that ships would be destroyed.

Iran accuses the US of violating three ceasefire clauses and may skip Islamabad unless Lebanon is included.

Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline pumping station was hit by a drone; limited damage, Yanbu exports continued.

Hegseth declared Iran's defence-industrial base 'completely destroyed' and demanded Iran surrender all enriched uranium.

Netanyahu declared the ceasefire does not cover Lebanon; Israel struck 100+ targets in 10 minutes, killing over 300.

Iran halted Hormuz tanker transits in direct response to the Lebanon strikes, re-closing the strait hours after opening

Trump announced an immediate 50% tariff on any country supplying weapons to Iran, targeting China and Russia.

Hegseth issued a uranium ultimatum, stating the US would 'take it if we have to', and referenced Operation Midnight Hamm

Iran and the US publicly contradicted each other on enrichment: Iran claims the deal accepts it; Trump insists on zero e

Only 15 to 20 vessels transited Hormuz on day one, against a pre-war norm of 135 daily transits.

China pressured Khamenei into accepting the ceasefire at the last minute, per New York Times reporting.

Iranian missiles and drones struck UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar hours after the ceasefire took effect.

Kuwait reported 28 drones intercepted and serious damage to oil facilities, power stations, and desalination plants.

Iran attributed the attacks to pre-programmed IRGC launches; no deliberate violation established.

Trump posted 'big day for world peace' and offered Iran reconstruction supplies.

Vance called the ceasefire 'fragile', distinguishing between those who want a deal and those 'lying about the truce'.

Hezbollah announced it halted attacks on Israel; Israel continued striking Lebanon.

Iran's Lavan Island oil refinery attacked on 8 April; attribution unclear.

Trump announced a two-week bombing suspension conditional on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council accepted the ceasefire with a 'hands on the trigger' caveat.

Iran submitted a 10-point proposal including sanctions relief, US withdrawal, and enrichment rights.

Pakistan brokered the deal; Islamabad talks scheduled for Friday 10 April with VP Vance leading.

Netanyahu stated the ceasefire does not include Lebanon; Israel continues Hezbollah operations.

Russia and China vetoed the UNSC Hormuz freedom-of-navigation resolution (11-2-2).

Oil plunged 15% to $91 per barrel, the largest single-day drop since the 1991 Gulf War.

IRGC Wave 99 struck Saudi Arabia's Jubail petrochemical complex; Sadara and ExxonMobil facilities shut down indefinitely

Iran severed all diplomatic and indirect channels with the US, freezing Pakistan, Turkey, and Oman mediation.

The US struck Kharg Island for the second time, targeting 50 military installations while sparing energy infrastructure.

Israel struck three Tehran airports, the South Pars petrochemical complex, and approximately 10 railway bridges.

Trump warned that 'a whole civilisation will die tonight' if Iran fails to reopen Hormuz by 8pm ET.

Brent crude surged to $117 per barrel; US gasoline reached $4.14 per gallon, up 39% since the war began.

Qatar LNG tankers were forced to U-turn after IRGC revoked prior clearance; no loaded LNG has exited Hormuz since Februa

The US conducted more strikes on Iran on 7 April than any previous day since the war began, targeting three Tehran airpo

Leaked intelligence shared with Gulf allies describes Mojtaba Khamenei as unconscious in Qom with severe injuries includ

Iran fired seven ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia; all intercepted, but the King Fahd Causeway was temporarily closed.

A UNSC vote on a Hormuz safe-passage resolution is scheduled for Tuesday morning, diluted after Chinese objections to re

China is providing satellite imagery of US base positions to the IRGC and supplying weapons via the Caspian corridor.

India resumed Iranian oil purchases after a seven-year hiatus, negotiating bilateral safe passage rather than joining th

Pakistan-brokered overnight talks between Vance, Araqchi, and army chief Munir failed to bridge the gap on Hormuz.

Trump confirmed Tuesday 8pm ET as his sixth deadline, threatening to destroy every bridge and power plant in Iran within

Hegseth stated Monday saw the largest volume of strikes on Iran since the war began.

Houthis claimed attacks on three commercial vessels and two US frigates in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean on 7 April.

Gulf states are now actively urging Washington to continue strikes until Iran's military is degraded.

A Turkish tanker transited Hormuz with one million barrels of Iraqi crude, formalising the Iraqi exemption.

Israel struck the South Pars petrochemical complex at Asaluyeh, responsible for half of Iran's petrochemical output.

The IDF killed IRGC oil commerce chief Ashrafi Kahi, the third senior commander eliminated on 6 April.

Quds Force Unit 840 commander Bakeri was confirmed killed alongside intelligence chief Khademi.

Iran formally rejected the 45-day ceasefire and delivered a 10-clause counter-proposal demanding a permanent end to the

The IRGC Navy declared Hormuz 'will never revert to its previous state' and announced a 'new order' for the Persian Gulf

Houthis claimed a 'joint operation' with Iran and Hezbollah targeting Eilat with cruise missiles and drones.

Iraq's SOMO instructed buyers to submit crude lifting schedules within 24 hours under the Hormuz exemption.

Israel killed IRGC intelligence chief Majid Khademi in a targeted Tehran dawn strike, the highest-ranking elimination si

Trump extended his deadline to Tuesday 8pm ET, threatening to strike 'every power plant' and all bridges in Iran.

Pakistan delivered the 'Islamabad Accord', a two-phase 45-day ceasefire framework, to both Washington and Tehran overnig

An Iranian ballistic missile killed two in a Haifa residential building, with two more missing.

Gulf infrastructure strikes continued across Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE, hitting power plants, oil storage, and teleco

ACLED data through 4 April shows both sides' strike rates declining roughly 10% week-on-week.

Iran launched its heaviest barrage of the conflict; the UAE alone intercepted 9 ballistic missiles, 1 cruise missile, an

A 45-day ceasefire framework is under discussion via Pakistani, Egyptian, and Turkish mediators; sources assess chances

Iran rejected Trump's Hormuz ultimatum and demanded war reparations before reopening the Strait.

An Iranian ballistic missile with a cluster warhead struck a Haifa residential building, killing 2 and wounding 24.

Hezbollah carried out 51 coordinated attacks over the weekend, synchronised with Iranian missile salvos.

Iraq formally authorised Popular Mobilisation Forces to respond to attacks on their positions.

The rescued F-15E colonel was recovered after 48 hours of evasion inside Iranian territory.

Trump issued a fourth ultimatum, naming Tuesday 6 April 'Power Plant Day and Bridge Day'.

Rosatom evacuated 198 additional staff from Bushehr after its fourth strike; only a skeleton crew remains.

Oman-Iran deputy FM talks on a Hormuz transit protocol reached 'final stages'; three Omani vessels transited outside the

Planet Labs imposed an indefinite imagery blackout on the Iran conflict at the Trump administration's request.

War approval fell to 33-38%; 74% of independents oppose the military action.

OPEC+ agreed a symbolic 206,000 b/d increase with minimal expected price impact.

US special forces extracted the F-15E weapons officer after a firefight inside Iran, destroying two MC-130J transports t

Iranian drones struck Bahrain's GPIC petrochemical complex and a Bapco fuel storage facility.

Interception debris from Iranian missiles caused fires at Abu Dhabi's Borouge polyolefin plant, suspending operations.

The IRGC blocked Pezeshkian's intelligence minister appointment, demanding direct oversight of all critical wartime posi

Tehran ordered asset seizure of over 100 individuals accused of supporting foreign enemies.

Araghchi privately signalled willingness to review US proposals via mediators while publicly denying any negotiations.

US special forces recovered the F-15E weapons officer after a heavy firefight with IRGC forces on Iranian soil.

Iranian drones set Kuwait Petroleum Corp

headquarters ablaze, also damaging a government complex nearby.

Iran's Fars news agency published an expanded target list adding electrical, water, and steam plants.

Pakistan confirmed its mediation effort has collapsed; Turkey and Egypt are seeking alternative venues.

Brent crude hit $112.42, up 7.2% in three days, with WTI backwardation at a record $16.70 per barrel.

Trump's war approval fell to 33%, with overall approval at 35-36% across multiple polls.

OPEC+ ministerial meeting scheduled for today, described as the most consequential since the alliance formed.

Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum threatening 'all Hell' if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Monday.

US-Israeli strikes hit five Mahshahr petrochemical plants, wounding five and marking escalation to economic infrastructu

A projectile struck 350 metres from the Bushehr nuclear reactor, the fourth incident; IAEA called it the 'reddest line'.

Araghchi reversed earlier reports, stating Iran 'never refused to go to Islamabad' for Pakistan-mediated talks.

Reports surfaced of a postponed Vance-Iran backchannel meeting, cancelled for 'internal consultations'.

The UAE intercepted 23 ballistic missiles and 56 drones; interception debris struck Oracle's Dubai offices.

Iran approved passage of essential goods vessels through the Strait to Iranian ports.

Iran rejected a US 48-hour ceasefire proposal, responding 'through the continuation of attacks'.

Pakistan-brokered mediation reached a dead end; Iran refuses to meet US officials in Islamabad.

Ghalibaf signalled extending maritime disruption to the Bab el-Mandeb strait via Houthi forces.

Gulf states continued absorbing strikes: one killed in Abu Dhabi, four injured in Bahrain, Kuwait refinery hit.

The UNSC vote on Bahrain's Hormuz resolution was postponed to Saturday; triple veto remains likely.

Trump posted 'TAKE THE OIL' and released a $1.5 trillion defence budget (44% increase over FY2026).

The search for the missing F-15E weapons systems officer on Iranian soil entered its second day.

Hegseth fired the Army Chief of Staff and two generals, installing a loyalist as acting chief.

Russia, China, and France will veto the UNSC resolution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Gulf states shifted from opposing the war to urging Washington to continue strikes.

Iran deployed approximately 12 limpet mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

Houthis sank two more Red Sea ships, doubling the war's total to four.

Iran published five conditions for ending the war, including reparations and base withdrawal.

WTI crude surpassed Brent for the first time, reflecting repricing of accessible supply.

Iran downed a US F-15E Strike Eagle over Iran; one crew member rescued, one still missing.

Iranian drones struck Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery and a desalination plant providing 90% of Kuwait's drinking water

Interceptor debris at the UAE's Habshan gas facility killed a Bangladeshi worker and forced a shutdown.

Trump posted 'Bridges next, then Electric Power Plants' and threatened to 'TAKE THE OIL' via Hormuz.

The first Western European vessel, a French-owned CMA CGM container ship, transited Hormuz with Iranian coordination.

Zarif published a Foreign Affairs blueprint proposing Iran accept nuclear limits and reopen Hormuz for sanctions relief.

Trump's approval fell to 39%, with Republican pollsters warning of 'ugly November' midterm losses.

Trump warned on Truth Social that the US 'hasn't even started' and threatened bridges and electric power plants next.

Iran published a retaliatory hit list of eight bridges across Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.

Zarif published a Foreign Affairs blueprint proposing Iran 'declare victory, make deal' via mutual non-aggression pact.

Iranian drones struck Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery, sparking fires across operational units.

Interceptor debris from 40 Iranian projectiles forced Abu Dhabi to suspend operations at the Habshan gas facility.

The IRGC claimed a second F-35 shootdown; independent analysis identified the debris as an F-15E Strike Eagle.

The UNSC Hormuz force-authorisation vote was delayed to Saturday; China and Russia oppose it.

US-Israeli strikes destroyed the B1 bridge between Tehran and Karaj, killing 8 and wounding 95 on Nature Day.

Iran threatened retaliatory infrastructure strikes on bridges in Israel, Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Jordan, and Iraq.

The IDF killed ballistic missile chief Makram Atimi and several battalion commanders in Kermanshah.

US intelligence assessed that Iran retains roughly 50% of its missile launchers and thousands of drones.

Trump asserted direct operational control over Israel: 'Israel will do what I tell them.'

Hegseth fired Army Chief of Staff Gen

Randy George and two other generals during active combat.

China has transferred approximately 1,000 loitering munitions to the IRGC via Pakistan.

Brent crude surged 6% to $111.69, with intraday highs past $113, after Trump's address disappointed markets.

The US Embassy in Baghdad issued an emergency 24-48 hour evacuation alert for all Americans.

An American journalist was kidnapped in Baghdad by suspected Kataib Hezbollah militants.

US-Israeli strikes hit the Pasteur Institute, a century-old medical research centre in Tehran.

The UAE intercepted 19 ballistic missiles and 26 drones on 2 April alone.

Iran characterised US demands as 'maximalist and irrational', denying any negotiations.

The IRGC's deadline to strike 18 US tech companies passed without kinetic execution.

Brent crude surged 7% to $107 after Trump's primetime address disappointed markets expecting a wind-down signal.

The UK convened a 35-nation virtual summit on Hormuz reopening, with military planners to follow.

Iran fired four missile salvos at central Israel overnight, including cluster warheads that wounded babies in Bnei Brak.

Hezbollah launched 50 rockets at northern Israel on the first morning of Passover.

The US Embassy in Baghdad warned of imminent militia attacks, urging all Americans to leave Iraq immediately.

The IRGC's deadline to strike 18 US tech companies including Apple and Nvidia takes effect at 16:30 UTC today.

The Washington Institute warned that maximalist war aims risk repeating the Iraq and Afghanistan pattern.

Trump delivered a prime-time address declaring 'decisive success' while threatening to destroy Iran's power grid and oil

Israel struck the home of former FM Kharazi, killing his wife; Kharazi was overseeing the Pakistan-Vance diplomatic chan

Iran denied Trump's claim of a ceasefire request, stating it has 'zero trust' in Washington and can fight for six months

Iran launched its largest missile salvo in three weeks at central Israel, including cluster munitions on Passover eve.

The IRGC set a deadline to strike 18 US tech companies including Apple, Nvidia, and Boeing across the Gulf.

China and Pakistan issued a five-point ceasefire plan; Iran rejected it and demanded sovereignty over the Strait of Horm

The Intercept reported 15 US troops killed and 520 wounded, accusing the Pentagon of hiding casualty figures.

Trump said he is 'strongly considering' withdrawing from NATO after European allies refused to support the Iran war.

The IRGC set a deadline of 20:00 Tehran time today to begin striking 18 US tech companies including Apple, Nvidia, and B

Iran launched four missile salvos at Dimona and Arad; Israeli air defences failed to intercept near the Negev nuclear si

US-Israeli strikes hit Isfahan's Mobarakeh Steel for the second time this week, killing one and wounding fifteen.

The IDF struck Tofigh Daru pharmaceutical factory, claiming it supplied fentanyl for chemical weapons research; Iran den

The IRGC is now functioning as Iran's de facto government; President Pezeshkian has been completely sidelined.

China is supplying weapons to the IRGC via Russia, Turkmenistan, and the China-Pakistan corridor, including drone compon

Trump publicly disavowed Hormuz responsibility, telling allies to 'build up some courage' and secure the Strait themselv

Araghchi told Al Jazeera that Iran is prepared for at least six months of war and has not responded to the US 15-point p

An Iranian cruise missile struck the Aqua 1 tanker in Qatari waters near Ras Laffan; Qatar intercepted two others.

Iran struck civilian infrastructure in Bahrain, part of a coordinated pattern across three Gulf states in one day.

Brent crude dropped below $102 for the first time since late March on Trump's exit comments.

Israel's defence minister vowed permanent occupation of southern Lebanon to the Litani River.

Trump stated Iran does not need to make a deal for the US to withdraw and set a two-to-three-week timeline.

The White House scheduled a prime-time national address on the war for Wednesday 2 April at 21:00 ET.

White House officials privately told reporters Hormuz reopening is no longer a core objective for ending the war.

China and Pakistan presented a five-point peace plan calling for immediate ceasefire and Hormuz reopening.

The IRGC threatened to destroy facilities of 18 named US companies in the Gulf from 20:00 Tehran time today.

Iranian drones struck Kuwait International Airport fuel tanks, starting a large fire at the fuel storage facility.

Iran's president told the EU Council president that Iran has the 'necessary will' to end the war if given guarantees.

An Iranian drone struck the Kuwaiti VLCC Al-Salmi carrying two million barrels of crude 31 nautical miles from Dubai por

The IDF set Wednesday 2 April as a deadline to eliminate all high-priority pre-war targets, claiming 60-70% already dest

Hegseth declared 'regime change has occurred' in Iran and claimed widespread military desertions.

Pakistan and China announced a five-point peace roadmap after FM Dar met Wang Yi in Beijing.

The WSJ reported Trump is willing to end the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

US gasoline crossed $4 per gallon nationally for the first time since 2022; Brent traded at $105-115.

A fourth Iranian ballistic missile entered Turkish airspace and was intercepted by NATO air defences.

Three Chinese COSCO container ships transited Hormuz, the first major commercial crossing since the war began.

Iran's parliament approved a Hormuz toll plan banning American and Israeli vessels and sanctioning-country ships.

Rubio stated US objectives are achievable in 'weeks, not months' and Hormuz will stay open 'one way or another'.

Iran's foreign ministry denied any negotiations with the US over 31 days of war.

Saudi Arabia intercepted eight ballistic missiles targeting Riyadh and the Eastern Province; Bahrain activated sirens.

Saudi, Qatari and Jordanian leaders issued a joint condemnation of Iranian attacks as 'dangerous escalation'.

Israel completed 170 strikes in 24 hours across Tehran and Isfahan, targeting HEU facilities and IRGC research sites.

Trump told aides he would end the war without reopening Hormuz, which is not a 'core objective'.

Trump threatened to 'completely obliterate' Kharg Island, power plants, oil wells, and desalination plants.

Iran formally rejected the US 15-point plan as 'excessive, unrealistic and unreasonable'.

An Iranian drone struck the fully laden Kuwaiti VLCC Al Salmi at Dubai's port anchorage, causing a hull breach.

A sea drone hit the tanker Sonangol Namibe at Kuwait's Mubarak Al Kabeer Port, 800km from Hormuz.

A coordinated Iran-Hezbollah missile strike set Haifa's main oil refinery ablaze.

Houthis signalled that closing Bab el-Mandeb is a 'viable option' after launching a second wave at Israel.

Trump threatened on Truth Social to destroy Iran's power plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and desalination plants.

Ghalibaf publicly denied any negotiations; IRGC spokesman accused Trump of alternating threats and talks.

Bessent stated the US will 'retake control' of Hormuz through naval escorts.

Brent crude rose to $115-116 on Kharg comments, on track for a record 51% monthly gain.

Pakistan's Committee of Four proposed a Suez Canal-style fee structure for Hormuz transit.

Qatar shot down two Iranian Su-24 bombers, the first manned aircraft destroyed by a third nation.

Trump told the Financial Times he wants to 'take the oil in Iran' and is still weighing Kharg Island seizure.

Iran struck a Kuwait power and desalination plant, killing one Indian worker.

Pakistan formally offered to host direct Rubio-Araghchi talks, possibly as early as Tuesday.

Overnight US-Israeli strikes hit 108 targets across 10 provinces; Tehran briefly lost power.

Saudi Arabia intercepted five ballistic missiles targeting its Eastern Province on 30 March.

The IRGC university ultimatum expired at noon with no US condemnation; follow-through pending.

Trump claimed Iran agreed to 'most of' a 15-point plan; Iran denied direct negotiations.

Pakistan offered to host direct US-Iran talks 'in coming days' after a four-nation summit.

IDF signalled critical infrastructure strikes will be complete 'within a few days'.

Iran destroyed a US E-3 AWACS at Prince Sultan Air Base; 29 US soldiers injured across two attacks.

Houthis launched a second missile and drone salvo at Israel within 24 hours of their first.

Pentagon placed formal Kharg Island ground operation plans on Trump's desk.

IAEA confirmed Khondab Heavy Water Complex is 'no longer operational' after IDF strikes.

USS Tripoli arrived with 3,500 Marines; Pentagon considering up to 10,000 additional ground troops.

Ghalibaf warned that Gulf state infrastructure faces 'relentless attacks' if US ground operations proceed.

Pezeshkian and IRGC commander Vahidi clashed publicly over war management and economic damage.

Israel eliminated SPND research head Ali Pouladvand and nuclear scientist Mohammad Reza Kia.

Hezbollah intensified to 118 attack waves over the weekend; launching 600 projectiles per day.

A 22-nation coalition pledged to begin planning a Hormuz mine-clearing mission.

Zelenskyy released intelligence showing Russia shared satellite imagery of US bases with Iran.

Iran struck aluminium plants in Bahrain (Alba) and the UAE (EGA Abu Dhabi), wounding eight employees.

Saudi Arabia intercepted ten Iranian drones early Sunday; Kuwait shot down four after air raid sirens.

Houthis launched a second missile at Israel on 29 March; intercepted, with 11 injured by debris.

The Pentagon is preparing limited ground operations on Kharg Island and Hormuz coastal areas.

Iran's FM Araghchi told Turkey that Tehran is 'sceptical about diplomatic efforts'.

Anti-war protests in Tel Aviv reached 1,200 people, the largest since the war began.

Iran's parliament began formally considering withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty via priority legislation.

Iranian drones struck Kuwait International Airport fuel tanks and a Bahrain petroleum refinery, injuring 32 civilians.

Houthis fired their first ballistic missiles at Israel since the war began; both were intercepted near Beersheba.

Iran struck Prince Sultan Air Base with six ballistic missiles and 29 drones, wounding 15 US troops.

Rubio told G7 the war will end in two to four weeks; CNN reports war goals shifting toward Hormuz reopening.

Four-nation foreign ministers' talks opened in Islamabad with Saudi, Turkish, Egyptian, and Pakistani participation.

Vance told Netanyahu the 'gross majority of military objectives' are accomplished and chided him on regime change.

Rubio told G7 the US expects to complete war objectives in 'the next couple weeks' without ground troops.

Rubio pushed a postwar plan for international monitoring of the Strait of Hormuz.

Rubio acknowledged the US does not know who speaks for Iran in negotiations.

CPAC exposed a Republican rift over the war; Trump absent for the first time in a decade.

Vance said Washington's goal is to 'neuter' Iran for 'a very, very long time'.

Iranian state media acknowledged internal opposition activity for the first time since the war began.

Shell CEO warned fuel shortages are spreading from Asia toward Europe, expected by April.

Houthis launched a ballistic missile at Israel, intercepted near Beersheba, and threatened Bab al-Mandeb closure.

Iranian drones damaged Kuwait airport radar and struck Oman's Salalah port for the first time.

Trump at FII summit: '3,554 targets left' in Iran; renamed Hormuz the 'Strait of Trump'.

Pakistan hosting Saudi, Turkish, and Egyptian foreign ministers from 30 March.

Pentagon considering 10,000 additional ground troops including for Kharg Island seizure.

Iranian missile killed one in Tel Aviv; UAE intercepted missile near Abu Dhabi economic zone.

Brent at $112.57 with extreme backwardation; US gasoline at $3.98 per gallon.

Russia reportedly began supplying Iran with Shahed-variant drones and targeting intelligence against US forces.

Iranian missiles struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, wounding 10 US troops and damaging refuelling aircraft.

Israel struck Ardakan yellowcake plant, Khondab heavy water complex, and Bushehr nuclear plant on the same day.

Rosatom evacuated remaining personnel from Bushehr and suspended construction of two new reactor units.

Rubio told G7 allies the war will continue 2-4 weeks beyond the original timeline, which expires today.

Iran's counter-proposal arrived: five demands including reparations, proxy protection, and Hormuz sovereignty.

Iran blocked two Chinese ships at Hormuz, disrupting the managed transit system that had prioritised Beijing-linked carg

Israel struck the Arak heavy water reactor, citing 'rehabilitation attempts'; no casualties reported.

The Ardakan yellowcake production plant in Yazd Province was hit; Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation confirmed.

The USS Tripoli with 2,500 Marines and F-35Bs entered Gulf waters alongside 82nd Airborne paratroopers.

Vance told Netanyahu Israeli regime change predictions were 'far too optimistic'; Trump made Vance lead negotiator.

Iran formally rejected the 15-point peace proposal as 'one-sided and unacceptable' via Reuters.

Houthi leader al-Houthi released his first video threat since the war began; MARAD issued a Bab el-Mandeb advisory.

ACLED data shows US-Israeli strike tempo up 16% while Iranian strike locations fell 20% below the weekly average.

Kpler confirmed 11 tankers and gas carriers transited Hormuz since 23 March, consistent with Trump's claim of an Iranian

Iran formally rejected direct US talks; Araghchi tabled five counter-conditions including Hormuz sovereignty recognition

Trump at Cabinet declared the US would 'keep blowing them away unimpeded', casting doubt on a near-term deal.

IDF reports 330 of Iran's estimated 470 ballistic missile launchers destroyed or inaccessible (70% attrition).

The Pentagon is preparing 'final blow' options including seizing Kharg Island, Larak, and Abu Musa plus an oil blockade

Iran is self-limiting strikes on Saudi Arabia to avoid triggering a direct Saudi military response; the Saudi red line i

Iran's parliament is drafting legislation to codify Hormuz sovereignty and impose transit tolls, entering legal review n

Israel killed IRGC Navy commander Tangsiri and intelligence chief Rezaei in a pre-dawn Bandar Abbas strike.

Trump extended the energy-strike pause by 10 days to 6 April, calling it an Iranian request.

Pakistan confirmed on-record that it is relaying indirect US-Iran messages, including the 15-point proposal.

Israel removed Araghchi and Qalibaf from the assassination list at Pakistan's request to preserve negotiating partners.

CENTCOM reported two-thirds of Iran's arms manufacturing destroyed and missile attack rates down 90%.

The Senate rejected a third war powers resolution 53-47, leaving Trump's authority unchecked.

Iran-linked Ashab al Yamin claimed seven arson attacks on Jewish and Western targets across Europe.

Trump told his cabinet he does not care about making a deal; Hegseth said the Pentagon will 'keep negotiating with bombs

The Pentagon disclosed a four-point 'final blow' plan: invade Kharg Island, invade Larak Island, seize Abu Musa, and blo

GCC states and Jordan issued a joint Article 51 self-defence statement, the strongest collective language to date.

Saudi Arabia intercepted drones targeting Eastern Province oil facilities; four killed in Abu Dhabi from Iranian attacks

Iran fired two missile salvos at central Israel within 30 minutes; Hezbollah simultaneously struck Western Galilee.

Witkoff confirmed the 15-point framework; Iran responded via intermediaries demanding reparations and Hormuz sovereignty

Brent crude hit $106, up $6.10 in the largest single-day spike of the war; IEA called it the largest supply disruption i

Israel claims it killed IRGC Navy Commander Alireza Tangsiri, architect of the Hormuz blockade, in a Bandar Abbas airstr

The Pentagon is preparing ground-operation options at four locations: Kharg Island, Larak Island, Abu Musa, and Iranian

Trump privately told aides he wants the war wrapped up within weeks; a mid-May Xi Jinping summit sets an implicit deadli

Trump publicly warned Iran to 'get serious before it is too late'; the five-day energy pause expires Saturday.

Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf threatened 'continuous and relentless attacks' on any regional country assisting a US

The GCC Secretary-General said Iran's actions 'overcome all red lines', the sharpest collective Gulf condemnation to dat

Brent crude surged to $106 from $99.75, reversing yesterday's dip, after Iran signalled no intention of direct talks.

Iran's parliament began drafting legislation to impose permanent tolls on Strait of Hormuz transit, formalising the ad h

Saudi forces intercepted 32 drones and one ballistic missile targeting Ras Tanura, Ghawar, and Abqaiq over 11 hours, the

US A-10 aircraft struck a shared Iraqi army-PMF base at Habbaniyah, killing seven Iraqi soldiers; Baghdad summoned the U

Iran demanded Vice President Vance as chief negotiator, rejecting Witkoff and Kushner; IAEA chief Grossi confirmed weeke

Pew Research found 59% of Americans say force was the wrong decision; 61% disapprove of Trump's handling.

Iran is fortifying Kharg Island with anti-personnel mines, anti-armour mines, additional troops, and air defences.

Lebanon declared Iran's ambassador persona non grata after an Iranian ballistic missile fragmented over Lebanese airspac

Iran formally rejected the US 15-point plan and issued a five-point counterproposal that includes Iranian sovereignty ov

Trump said the US and Iran are 'in negotiations right now'; Iran denied any direct talks are occurring.

Pakistan's Foreign Minister confirmed conveying the US proposal; a senior Iranian official told Reuters talks in Pakista

China's Foreign Minister called Iranian FM Araghchi directly, urging engagement, while Beijing's special envoy met UAE a

Secretary of State Rubio said the US 'may need to physically secure nuclear material inside Iran', the first public refe

The IRGC forced President Pezeshkian to retract his apology to Gulf states, confirming commanders now override civilian

The Senate rejected a war powers resolution for a third time, 53-47; the Pentagon is reportedly preparing a $200 billion

Iran's military spokesman called US talk of negotiations 'talking to yourself' at 09:09 CET.

Iran's civilian channel transmitted back-channel counter-conditions: US Gulf base closures, full sanctions removal, war

Qatar denied any mediation role, leaving Pakistan as the sole confirmed channel.

Pentagon formally ordered deployment of 2,000-3,000 82nd Airborne paratroopers alongside 5,000 Marines already en route.

US military struck an Iran-backed group headquarters in Anbar province; Iraq's NSC authorised PMF self-defence in respon

ISIS Nuclear confirmed Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan 'largely destroyed'; nuclear capability set back one to two years min

Brent crude fell approximately 9% on ceasefire leak before partially recovering to the $99-108 range.

The US conveyed a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran via Pakistani intermediaries covering missiles, enrichment, and Hormuz

Iran denied direct talks but its Foreign Ministry acknowledged receiving the US conditions through intermediaries for re

Iran told the UN that non-hostile vessels may transit Hormuz with coordination, excluding US and Israeli ships.

An Iranian drone struck Kuwait International Airport's fuel depot overnight, causing a major fire.

Saudi Arabia intercepted approximately 20 Iranian drones targeting Eastern Province oil infrastructure.

A projectile struck the Bushehr nuclear power plant premises for the second time; IAEA confirmed minor damage.

The US Senate defeated a war powers resolution 53-47, exhausting the third congressional attempt to constrain the war.

China's Wang Yi called Araghchi and urged Iran to engage in negotiations 'as soon as possible'.

An Iranian source told CNN there has been US 'outreach' and Tehran is 'willing to listen' to sustainable proposals.

Pakistan formally offered to host US-Iran talks; an Israeli official confirmed planning for later this week.

MBS pressed Trump in multiple calls not to halt fighting, calling it a 'historic opportunity' for the region.

The 82nd Airborne Division command element received deployment orders to the Middle East.

Hezbollah's fire rate dropped 40%, from 85 attack waves on 22 March to 51 on 23 March.

Israel announced indefinite occupation of southern Lebanon to the Litani River.

Houthi forces fired six anti-ship ballistic missiles at the Chinese-owned tanker MV Huang Pu, hitting it directly and st

Pakistan is reportedly arranging a meeting between Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and US envoys Witkoff, Kushner, a

Iran fired eight missile barrages at Israel, including a 100 kg warhead impact in central Tel Aviv injuring four.

Lebanon declared Iran's ambassador persona non grata, ordering departure by 29 March and expelling all IRGC-linked indiv

Zolghadr, a former IRGC commander, was appointed SNSC secretary to replace the killed Larijani.

Brent crude rebounded to $101-104 after yesterday's $99.94 close, erasing most of the pause-driven drop.

Four commercial vessels were struck in the Arabian Gulf in the past 24 hours, per UKMTO.

Netanyahu endorsed the deal framework, saying Trump sees a chance to 'leverage military gains' into an agreement.

Iran confirmed receiving a US message through mediators while maintaining that no negotiations have taken place.

Brent crude closed at $99.94, below $100 for the first time since 11 March; Asian markets rallied overnight.

Multiple accusations of market manipulation emerged from both Iranian officials and US commentators.

The Pentagon's $200 billion war supplemental faces bipartisan opposition; GOP leaders lack votes.

FDD documented coordinated Iranian strikes across six countries in the 20-23 March period, with escalating Gulf state ta

Iran's Foreign Ministry formally denied any dialogue with Washington; Ghalibaf called Trump's claims 'fake news'.

Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan confirmed as active mediators; an Islamabad meeting is being arranged this week.

Trump revealed Kushner and Witkoff as lead negotiators and claimed '15 points of agreement' with Iran.

Israel launched over 100 munitions in 'unprecedented' strikes on Tehran, including IRGC headquarters and defence ministr

IRGC claimed missile and drone strikes on the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain.

Fars News published a specific target list including the UAE's Barakah nuclear power plant.

Brent crude crashed 13% to $97 on the pause announcement, then partially recovered to $104 after Iran's denial.

Trump instructed the 'department of war' to postpone all strikes on Iranian power plants for five days.

Trump claimed the US and Iran have held 'productive conversations' over the past two days.

Iran's National Defence Council threatened to mine all Persian Gulf access routes with drifting mines if Iran's coast is

Qalibaf declared regional energy and desalination infrastructure 'legitimate targets' if Iranian power plants are struck

CENTCOM chief Cooper stated Iran's military leaders are in 'deep bunkers' and targeting civilians in 'desperation'.

The IEA declared the energy crisis worse than the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks combined, with 11 million bpd removed.

Brent crude rose to $114; Asian markets fell sharply on Monday open.

Iran's military command threatened to destroy all US and Israeli energy, IT and desalination infrastructure in the regio

Parliament Speaker Qalibaf warned of 'irreversible destruction' of Gulf infrastructure, explicitly naming desalination p

IDF Chief of Staff Zamir approved deeper ground operations in Lebanon, stating the campaign 'has only just begun'.

Israel destroyed the Qasmiyeh Bridge over the Litani for the second time, severing southern Lebanon's main crossing.

Iranian cluster munitions continued striking central Israel; Hezbollah fragments reached the centre, wounding seven sold

Brent crude climbed to $114; Asian markets plunged on Monday open (Nikkei -4%, KOSPI -4.5%).

The IRGC claimed to have intercepted a US-Israeli armed drone over Tehran (unverified).

Two Iranian drones struck the US embassy in Riyadh, causing limited fire and minor material damage.

Three ballistic missiles targeted Riyadh and Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province; most intercepted.

Israel launched new strikes on eastern Tehran in retaliation for the Dimona and Arad attacks.

The IDF began 'extensive strikes' on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon.

Netanyahu called on European nations to join the war, citing Iran's demonstrated intercontinental missile range.

Strait of Hormuz traffic fell to 16 transits in seven days, down from 135 per day pre-war.

Brent crude surged to $112 per barrel, up from $107 two days earlier.

Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf threatened 'irreversible' destruction of regional energy infrastructure if power plan

Iranian missiles penetrated Israeli air defences at Dimona and Arad, wounding approximately 180 people.

An Iranian cluster-munition ballistic missile struck central Israel near Tel Aviv, injuring 15.

Saudi Arabia expelled five Iranian diplomats, the second Gulf state after Qatar to take this step.

A UK-flagged bulk carrier was hit by an unknown projectile off Sharjah, the first such incident in UAE waters.

Israel's defence minister announced strikes will 'increase significantly' this week across all fronts.

Trump threatened to 'obliterate' Iran's power plants if Hormuz is not reopened within 48 hours; deadline falls late Mond

Iranian missiles struck Dimona and Arad near Israel's nuclear facility, wounding over 100, in retaliation for the Natanz

Iran declared a shift to disproportionate retaliation, warning future responses will be 'broader and more damaging'.

IDF Chief of Staff Zamir described the campaign as at the 'halfway' point, implying a planned six-week duration.

Trump requested $200 billion from Congress for war funding, contradicting exit-preparing rhetoric.

Gulf states sustained heavy overnight attacks: Dubai intercepted rockets, UAE shot down 4 ballistic missiles and 26 dron

Iran offered Japan bilateral safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and invited other countries to negotiate similar

The White House is seriously considering a ground operation to seize Kharg Island to force Iran to reopen Hormuz.

The US lifted sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian crude at sea until 19 April to contain energy prices.

Kataib Hezbollah declared a temporary ceasefire around the US Embassy in Baghdad while broader fighting continues.

Kuwait and UAE disrupted domestic Hezbollah cells operating within their borders.

Brent crude settled at $112.19 per barrel, the war's highest close, with extreme backwardation of $14.20 spot premium.

US gasoline reached $3.91 per gallon nationally, $0.80-0.93 above pre-war levels.

Iran fired two IRBMs at Diego Garcia (~4,000 km range); both missed but doubled Iran's confirmed missile envelope.

US-Israel struck Natanz nuclear enrichment facility for the second time; no radiation leak reported.

UK authorised US use of RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia for Hormuz operations, reversing earlier refusal.

Israel Defence Minister Katz pledged strikes will 'significantly escalate' this week.

Iranian cluster munition hit a daycare in Rishon Lezion; Passover camps cancelled in 18 municipalities.

Saudi Arabia intercepted 22 Iranian drones and warned Tehran of possible retaliation via intermediaries.

Senate voted down war powers resolution 53-47; no operative Congressional constraint on the war.

Trump said the US is 'considering winding down' and 'I think we've won', while explicitly rejecting ceasefire.

White House actively weighing Kharg Island seizure or blockade to break the Hormuz deadlock; no decision taken.

Treasury issued a 30-day sanctions waiver on 140 million barrels of Iranian crude at sea to ease prices.

Brent crude closed at $112.19, the highest of the war; IEA called this the largest supply disruption in oil market histo

Iraq declared force majeure on all foreign-operated oilfields; Basra production cut from 3.3 million to 900,000 bpd.

Iran threatened 'crushing strikes' on UAE's Ras al-Khaimah and issued a civilian evacuation notice.

Iran's military warned that global tourist and recreational sites 'won't be safe' for its enemies.

Bipartisan Congressional opposition hardened against the Pentagon's $200 billion war supplemental; GOP leaders say they

Trump called NATO allies 'cowards' for refusing to send warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Treasury Secretary Bessent floated releasing strategic reserves and easing sanctions on Iranian crude already shipped.

Iran fired eight ballistic missile salvos at Israel; a fragment struck Jerusalem's Old City near the Western Wall.

A second US F-35 reportedly hit over southern Iran and diverted to Al Dhafra Air Base (single source, unverified).

Mojtaba Khamenei issued a Nowruz written statement but remains invisible on Day 21; Quds Force chief Qaani also surfaced

IRGC spokesman Brigadier General Naeini killed in US-Israeli strike, the fourth senior figure eliminated this week.

Netanyahu pledged to halt strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure at Trump's request; 'we're holding off.'

Brent crude dropped to $105 (down 12% from $119 spike), the first significant price retreat since the energy escalation

Iran fired approximately 100 drones at Saudi Arabia in the largest single-day barrage of the war.

Iran fired missiles at Riyadh for the first time; debris hit a refinery south of the capital.

USS Boxer amphibious group deployed from San Diego; 8,000 Marines now surging to the region on six ships.

European allies assessed that Hormuz reopening is impossible while the war continues.

Israel struck Tehran on Nowruz morning in direct response to Iranian missile salvos targeting Jerusalem the previous eve

A US F-35 made an emergency landing after being hit by suspected Iranian fire, the first US aircraft loss event of the c

Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery struck again by Iranian drones, the second hit in 24 hours.

IMO agreed on a safe maritime corridor framework (115+ states); Iran rejected it as 'one-sided and legally deficient.'

EU called for a moratorium on strikes against energy and water infrastructure; six additional nations endorsed a paralle

GOP fracturing on $200bn supplemental; Boebert says 'no under any circumstance'; Republican leaders lack votes.

Netanyahu stated that regime change requires a 'ground component'; 'you can't make a revolution from the air.'

Hegseth announced 7,000+ targets struck, all 11 submarines destroyed, 120+ vessels sunk; 'largest strike package yet' to

Twelve Arab-Islamic states issued joint statement demanding Iran halt attacks, comply with UNSC 2817, and cease threaten

Saudi FM explicitly reserved 'the right to take military actions'; could be 'a day, two days, or a week.'

Trump told Netanyahu to halt South Pars attacks, while threatening to 'massively blow up' the entire field if Iran hits

Iran executed 19-year-old wrestler Saleh Mohammadi and two others, the first executions over January protests.

Shell confirmed Pearl GTL damaged at Ras Laffan; 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity knocked out for an estimated 3-5 years.

UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Japan issued joint statement condemning Iran on Hormuz; expressed readiness

Iran struck energy facilities in four countries overnight: Qatar (Ras Laffan second wave), Kuwait (two refineries), Saud

Saudi Arabia suspended oil loadings at Yanbu, the last remaining major Gulf crude export route since the Hormuz closure.

Brent crude spiked to $119/bbl; European gas surged 35% on Ras Laffan LNG damage; US gas approaching $4/gallon.

Saudi FM sharpened language: Gulf patience 'not unlimited'; states have 'very significant capabilities' they could deplo

FBI opened leak investigation into Joe Kent; McConnell called Kent's resignation letter 'virulent antisemitism.'

Mojtaba Khamenei issued written condolence for Larijani but remains invisible on Day 11; state media using image enhance

US Energy Secretary: Navy 'not ready' for Hormuz tanker escorts; operations possible 'by month's end.'

Iran struck Ras Laffan twice overnight; QatarEnergy confirmed 'extensive damage' and 'sizeable fires' at LNG facilities

Saudi FM declared 'we have reserved the right to take military actions' and that trust with Iran is 'completely shattere

Trump threatened to 'massively blow up' entirety of South Pars if Iran attacks Qatar again; claimed Israel struck 'witho

Kent told Carlson in 100-minute interview that 'Israel drove the decision' and there was 'no intelligence' of an imminen

Pentagon seeks over $200bn supplemental war budget; White House objects to the total; congressional path unclear.

Brent crude surged to $112/bbl, up approximately 80% since the war began.

Grossi stated the war 'cannot entirely eliminate' Iran's nuclear programme; material and enrichment capacities will surv

US-Israel struck South Pars gas field (world's largest natural gas reserve, shared with Qatar), the first attack on Iran

IRGC named five Gulf energy facilities for imminent strike: SAMREF, Jubail, Al Hosn, Ras Laffan, Mesaieed; ordered civil

Iran confirmed Khatib and Defence Minister Nasirzadeh killed; four senior officials now confirmed dead in 48 hours.

IAEA disclosed a fourth underground enrichment facility at Isfahan; inspectors have never visited and cannot determine i

DNI Gabbard testified Iran was not rebuilding enrichment; omitted the finding from spoken testimony to avoid contradicti

A projectile struck Bushehr nuclear plant premises; IAEA said damage was 'not very significant'; no radiation release.

Brent crude surged to $110/bbl, the highest since the war began; European gas benchmark jumped 9.3%.

Israel claims Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib killed in overnight Tehran strike, the third senior official in 48 hou

Araghchi told Al Jazeera the late Khamenei's nuclear fatwa was specific to the jurist who issued it and he cannot judge

Trump said he is 'not afraid' of deploying ground troops; USS Tripoli with 2,200 Marines tracked transiting toward the G

Telegraph-verified leaked audio confirms Mojtaba survived Day 1 strike by seconds; wife and son killed; leg injury.

IDF ordered evacuation south of Zahrani River and announced strikes on Litani River crossings to block Hezbollah reinfor

Saudi air defences intercepted a ballistic missile and 15 drones targeting Al-Kharj (near Prince Sultan Air Base) and Ri

Iran confirmed Ali Larijani and Basij commander Soleimani killed; launched 'True Promise 4' cluster barrage on central I

CENTCOM dropped GBU-72 bunker busters on Iranian antiship missile sites along Hormuz, the first strike targeting Iran's

Russia confirmed sharing satellite imagery, drone technology, and US force locations with Iran to improve targeting.

Missile fragments fell at Al-Aqsa Mosque, Church of the Holy Sepulchre, and Armenian Patriarchate in Jerusalem.

IDF issued kill-on-sight directive for senior Iranian and Hezbollah figures without prior political approval; 'Mojtaba i

USS Gerald Ford withdrew to Crete after a fire, temporarily reducing US carrier strike capacity.

Saudi Arabia convened the first Arab-Islamic foreign ministers meeting since the war began.

At least 19 killed and thousands injured in Chaharshanbe Suri clashes between security forces and festival-goers across

NCTC Director Joe Kent resigned, the first senior Trump official to quit, saying the war was started 'due to pressure fr

Witkoff-Araghchi back-channel reportedly reactivated; conflicting accounts of who initiated contact; Araghchi denied it.

Security force defections deepened beyond lower ranks in Isfahan and Tabriz; Basij operatives faking their own deaths.

Kuwait Hezbollah cell discovered: 16 arrested with weapons, drones, and encrypted devices.

Hezbollah planning major rocket barrage on central and northern Israel; 522 attack waves since Day 1.

Senate Democrats threatened daily war powers votes unless public hearings with Hegseth and Rubio are scheduled.

Israel claims it killed Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, in an overnight Tehran stri

Israel claims it killed Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani and senior Basij officials in the same strike, on the eve o

Amnesty International found a US Tomahawk killed 170+ people including 110+ children at a Minab primary school on Day 1.

Three drones penetrated the US Embassy compound in Baghdad; militia footage shows a drone inside the perimeter.

Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed the US is allowing Iranian oil tankers through Hormuz to 'supply the rest of the wo

Gulf oil production disruption exceeded 10 MMbpd, the largest supply disruption in recorded history.

Iran's FM Araghchi declared 'diplomacy is dead' and denied any contact with US envoy Witkoff.

Iran arrested 500+ people for alleged espionage and deployed DShK heavy machine guns at police stations across nine majo

Gulf oil production disruption reached 8.5 MMbpd, the most severe supply crisis in OPEC+ history.

Kata'ib Hezbollah confirmed its security commander was killed in a Baghdad airstrike; rockets hit the US Embassy overnig

The UAE closed its entire national airspace as a precautionary measure after a third Dubai airport drone incident.

Fujairah oil hub was struck a second time in three days; Abu Dhabi's Shah oil field (70,000 bpd) separately hit by drone

Iran's missile capacity independently assessed at 8-10% of pre-war levels, with 2,410 of 2,500 ballistic missiles expend

Chaharshanbe Suri (18 March) and Nowruz (20 March) approach as potential domestic flashpoints under wartime emergency.

Trump told reporters 'we've essentially defeated Iran,' the first exit-preparing register shift in 17 days of escalatory

CENTCOM announced a shift from intercepting missiles to destroying Iran's 'defence industrial base' after 6,000+ sorties

Iran shifted to 'escalate to de-escalate' strategy, targeting civilian airports and oil infrastructure across Gulf state

The $20bn US maritime reinsurance plan lacks liability cover, making it insufficient to restart Hormuz shipping.

Hormuz war-risk premiums surged 200-300% to levels not seen since the 1980s Tanker War.

Iran operating a selective Hormuz passage regime: Pakistan, India, and Turkey granted transit; negotiations ongoing with

IDF destroyed an Iranian space-capability compound in central Tehran; says 'thousands of targets' remain over three more

Iran FM Araghchi rejected ceasefire and all negotiations: 'We never asked for a ceasefire and see no reason to talk to t

AP analysis found 54% of voters disapprove of Trump's Iran handling; Tucker Carlson and Rand Paul have criticised him pu

Israel struck 200+ targets across Tehran, Shiraz, and Tabriz; IDF says it is preparing for at least three more weeks.

Drones struck a fuel tank near Dubai airport (third incident) and Fujairah's oil bunkering hub, suspending flights and o

IRGC spokesman claimed most weapons caches remain intact and missiles used so far are 'from a decade ago'.

Australia, Japan, and Germany refused Hormuz naval contributions; EU explored a UN-backed 'grain corridor' model.

Oil futures curve in steep backwardation (spot $105, August $90), with markets implicitly pricing a sub-90-day resolutio

US struck 90+ military targets on Kharg Island; oil exports continue but Trump threatened further strikes 'just for fun'

Iran's FM Araghchi rejected ceasefire and negotiations on CBS, claiming 440 kg of enriched uranium is 'under the rubble'

Iran deployed the Sejjil solid-fuel strategic missile for the first time, with one landing near the US consular residenc

A drone struck a fuel tank at Dubai International Airport, suspending Emirates flights; the third such incident since th

Iran's missile fire rate confirmed at 92% decline from Day 1 peak; 100-200 active launchers remain.

Saudi Arabia intercepted over 60 drones overnight; UAE cumulative toll reaches 298 ballistic missiles and 1,606 UAVs.

India secured bilateral Hormuz passage for two tankers, the first working diplomatic channel producing a concrete outcom

IDF spokesman announced plans through Passover (three weeks) with 'thousands of targets' remaining.

Trump said deal terms are 'not good enough yet' and threatened Kharg Island strikes 'a few more times just for fun'.

US-Israel strikes on Isfahan industrial area killed at least 15 people overnight.

Iran confirmed Brig-Gen Abdullah Jalali Nasab killed in an Israeli strike.

IRGC announced its 50th wave of operations against US bases in UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait.

Trump called for an international naval coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

US struck 90+ military targets on Kharg Island while preserving oil infrastructure; Trump threatened repeat strikes "for

IDF plans at least three more weeks of operations through Passover (April 1), with "deeper plans" for three weeks beyond

Israel Hayom reported Israeli officials now assess regime fracture as "less likely than first thought"; war aim recalibr

Senior Middle East source told Israel Hayom the US has given Israel one week to end the campaign.

Operation Rough Rider launched (US strikes on Houthis, 53 killed on Day 1); Houthis immediately declared a Red Sea ban a

Houthi missile landed in Egypt overnight, the first confirmed impact on Egyptian territory; IDF investigating whether it

Trump called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK to send warships to Hormuz; no immediate response from any

Iran fired seven ballistic missile salvos at Israel; Hezbollah claimed it struck Palmachim air base with "an advanced mi

Iran fired seven ballistic missile salvos at Israel, triggering sirens across Tel Aviv, Netanya, Eilat, and the West Ban

Haaretz reported Israel is critically low on missile interceptors, the first capacity constraint on Israeli air defence.

B-52 strategic bombers deployed for the first time; the most intense US strike day hit Shiraz, Tehran, Dezful, Hamedan,

The Washington Post reported Trump 'knocked back on his political heels', with his MAGA base divided over the campaign.

Trump said regime change could occur but 'not immediately', the first narrowing of stated war aims.

The IAEA assessed roughly 200 kg of 60%-enriched uranium underground at Esfahan, unmonitored for eight months.

Operation Rough Rider launched against Houthis in Yemen

The US began a major air campaign across seven Yemeni provinces, killing 53 people on the first day.

Trump rejected ceasefire, stating Iran wants to negotiate but 'the terms aren't good enough yet'

He claimed the US military had 'destroyed 100% of Iran's military capability' and that Kharg Island was 'totally demolished', adding the US may 'hit it a few more times just for fun'.

Both sides rejected international ceasefire efforts

The Trump administration rebuffed mediation from Middle Eastern allies. Iran also rejected ceasefire talks, demanding a 'complete halt to ongoing attacks' as precondition. The Oman channel has not materialised. Rejection is now mutual and explicit.

US and Israel struck Isfahan, killing at least 15 at a factory

Multiple strikes targeted IRGC headquarters, a Basij militia base, missile production and storage sites, air defence systems, and Internal Security Force headquarters.

IRGC launched its 50th and 51st 'waves' of operations, targeting US bases in the region and claiming strikes on 'the source of F-35 and F-16 fighter armament'

The near-daily drone campaign against US Embassy Baghdad continued.

Qatar intercepted four Iranian ballistic missiles and several drones targeting the Gulf state

All were intercepted successfully.

Fujairah oil-loading operations were suspended after fire at the UAE bunkering hub from intercepted drone debris

Storage operators VTTI and Vopak temporarily halted operations.

US military death toll reached 13, with seven killed by enemy fire

The Iranian death toll stands at 1,444 killed and 18,551 injured. At least 10,000 residential homes have been damaged or destroyed, with 750,000 people displaced.

Trump's mixed messaging continued

NBC characterised the administration's framing as 'already won or got to finish the job'.

IRGC declared US facilities in the UAE "legitimate targets" and specifically referenced UAE ports, the first explicit ta

US Embassy Baghdad was struck by two additional drones, continuing the near-daily IRI campaign against the embassy compo

Trump called on allied nations to send warships to the region, implicitly acknowledging insufficient US naval capacity f

NCRI reports a 13-day internet blackout across Iran since the conflict began, warning that historically extended shutdowns have preceded massacres (November 2019: 1,500+ killed after internet cut)

IRGC/Basij are confirmed using live ammunition against domestic protesters (NCRI, 14 March).

China's envoy Jun Zhai is conducting intensive shuttle diplomacy across the region

Iran's Deputy FM stated that a ceasefire requires "complete halt to ongoing attacks" first — a precondition that blocks all mediation while coalition strikes continue.

Jordan intercepted 79 of 85 Iranian missiles/drones (93% rate), meaning 6 projectiles penetrated Jordanian defences (Ara

Reza Pahlavi, the exiled Iranian crown prince, declared readiness to lead Iran (Hespress, 14 March, Arabic)

Timing coincides with blackout, protests, and live ammunition.

Brent crude at $103.14

IEA 400M barrel release failing to contain prices (up 17% since announcement). Rystad forecasts $110/bbl by April if 2-month conflict, $135 by June if 4-month.

House rejected war powers resolution 212-219 (tighter than Senate's 47-52), suggesting growing bipartisan discomfort

WashPost analysis identifies "three levels of victory" in Trump's endgame; NBC calls administration messaging a "moving target" (NPR; Washington Post, 14 March).

Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel on al-Quds Day coordinated with IRGC

France, Italy, and India continue bypassing the US for direct Hormuz passage deals with Iran. Houthi non-activation enters Day 15 evening (Al Jazeera Day 15 liveblog).