News tracking is live, published at 06:00 and 18:00 CET, with each update sent to subscribers by email the same morning or evening. The tracker is the news layer; the fuller Phase 2 scenario framework is still in preparation.

Get the news digest by email each morning and evening.

Your email is processed in accordance with GDPR. We send updates only — no marketing, no sharing.

Phase 2 Last updated 17 August 2026 at 18:01 CEST

What changed

Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it obstructs the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Kurdish authorities said Iranian drones targeted the offices of Kurdistan's prime minister. Israel said its strikes killed 11 people in southern Lebanon.

17 August 2026

18 developments

The US Navy awarded Raytheon a $22.9bn contract to raise Tomahawk output from about 60 to over 1,000 missiles a year

The IRGC and Iran's foreign ministry both denied on the record that any US-IRGC backchannel exists

Iran's vice-president said middlemen who move its oil now profit from sanctions and oppose lifting them

Trump said he would bomb Oman if it "gets in the way" of reopening the Strait of Hormuz

Kurdish authorities said two Iranian drones launched from Iran targeted the private office of Kurdistan prime minister Masrour Barzani

Israel said its strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, the deadliest 24 hours there since the June ceasefire

The Wall Street Journal reported that Iranian hardliners used the memorandum period to tighten IRGC control and raise missile production

The Houthis claimed ballistic-missile hits on a Saudi military vessel and four escort boats in the Red Sea, uncorroborated

All three Kharg Island terminals stood empty on 16 August after a dark tanker departed, with the LPG berth vacant 20 days

Twelve Saudi-flagged tankers and bulk carriers are rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, up from eight in earlier imagery

Iran's parliament approved in principle a bill criminalising contact with foreign media deemed hostile

The 60-day US-Iran ceasefire window under the Islamabad Memorandum expired on 16 August with no extension announced

Trump said he will declare the Strait of Hormuz "a territory of the United States"

Iran's deputy foreign minister said the strait "was Iran's, is Iran's, and will remain Iran's"

ACLED logged no US or Israeli strike events in Iran across 15-16 August, and one Iranian strike event

Named witnesses accused Bushehr lawmaker Jafar Pourkabgani of shooting at protesters in January, killing at least two

Iran's ambassador to Moscow said Iran and Oman would jointly set a Hormuz transit fee of 3-7% of declared cargo value

Axios reported a direct US backchannel to IRGC officials running via intelligence director Gabbard and Masrour Barzani

16 August 2026

19 developments

The USS George Washington arrived in the Arabian Sea and is expected to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln

The Trump administration ran a secret May backchannel to IRGC commanders through Iraqi Kurdish president Nechirvan Barzani

Iran's army chief announced a $30,000 bounty for killing or capturing US soldiers, doubled for female perpetrators

Iran executed Shahram Sadeghi, arrested in the January protests, on charges of operating on Israel's behalf, the judiciary said

Brent crude traded at $88.52 a barrel on 16 August on a maritime and market tracking feed

A Hezbollah drone attack seriously wounded three Israeli soldiers near the Ali al-Taher Ridge, an Israeli research centre said

Turkey's Erdogan called reopening the Strait of Hormuz a priority and said continued closure serves no one's interest

The UAE said an Iranian strike hit an ADNOC vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the third such incident in under a week

Israeli strikes killed 11 people in southern Lebanon, Lebanon's health ministry said, the deadliest day since the June ceasefire

Bandar Abbas airport resumed scheduled domestic flights to Tehran, Mashhad and Isfahan after repeated wartime closures

Iraq's Security Media Cell said the Popular Mobilization Forces are exempt from the state policy restricting weapons to official bodies

Arab and Western officials described mounting Gulf frustration with Trump's handling of the war, the Washington Post reported

Iran and Oman agreed a safe shipping route through Hormuz, but Tehran said the arrangement does not reopen the strait

Iran told the Red Cross that Qatar has held three of its pilots since March, which Qatar rejected, saying the crew died

Iran's parliament is consolidating about a dozen draft bills into one asserting Tehran's legal authority over the entire waterway

Iran's foreign minister said Tehran has taken no decision to resume talks with Washington, calling relayed messages not negotiations

Houthi missiles and drones struck residential areas of government-held Marib, injuring several people, Yemen's government said

Iran's judiciary chief and two foreign ministry officials rejected Trump's stated plan to declare the Strait of Hormuz US territory

Strait of Hormuz transits ran at 17% of the pre-conflict average over the trailing seven days, UKMTO data showed

15 August 2026

20 developments

Yemen's Mocha port halted operations after Houthi missile attacks that its director said killed seven people

Israeli strikes on the southern Lebanese villages of Ansar and Deir al-Zahrani killed 11, Lebanon's Health Ministry said

UKMTO issued Warning 113-26 after a bulk carrier was struck on the hull by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz

Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said there was no ceasefire to extend, only a 60-day window for negotiations

A senior White House official said Trump was joking when he spoke of making Hormuz a US territory, and had not consulted advisers

Hezbollah said Israel's strikes in southern Lebanon would be met with an appropriate response

Brent's futures curve flipped back into backwardation, with the September contract about $8 above the six-month contract

ADNOC said a third of its vessels was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on 14 August, with no injuries reported

The USS George Washington is deploying to the Middle East to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln after nearly nine months at sea

The US-Iran ceasefire expires on Monday 17 August, with extension negotiations reported deadlocked and no terms agreed

Brent ended the week at $88.38 a barrel, about $5 higher, as hopes for a Hormuz management deal faded

The US has widened its Iran outreach to Austria and Greece as the Omani and Qatari channels stall

UKMTO recorded two tankers struck by drone on outbound Hormuz transits, reporting minor damage and crews accounted for

Trump said he will 'pretty soon' declare the Strait of Hormuz a territory of the United States

Canada sanctioned five senior Iranian commanders and officials, freezing assets and barring dealings, taking its Iran list to 232 people

Iran's IRGC said it destroyed a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over Hormozgan province on 14 August

Iraq's prime minister ordered a study of an operation to retake Kataib Hezbollah's Jurf al Sakhr stronghold

Charter rates for Gulf-to-Asia supertankers reached about $498,000 a day on 14 August

Iraq's Badr Organisation warned that forcing militias to disarm before the 30 September deadline would produce civil war

France barred its operators from Qatari, Bahraini, Kuwaiti and Jordanian airspace, going beyond EASA's avoidance advice

14 August 2026

20 developments

Both the Yanbu and Jizan refineries have been struck under the Houthi maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, declared on 20 July

Oman's environment agency said the grounded tanker's oil spill has reached the mainland coast and covers about 390 square kilometres

Defense Secretary Hegseth called reports of shortages and broken plumbing aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln 'completely misrepresented'

The UAE accused Iran's Revolutionary Guard of attacking two ADNOC vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on the night of 13 August

Hegseth said the US can sustain its naval blockade of Iranian ports indefinitely

Saudi Arabia launched a 13-country Multinational Maritime Defense Coalition covering the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden

The carrier USS George Washington is under way toward the Middle East to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln

Tankers lifting crude at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu terminal are switching off their AIS transponders to evade Houthi attack

The US Treasury said an 'economic isolation' package targeting Iranian leaders' accounts and crypto wallets rolls out next week

Iran's gasoline shortfall passed 100,000 barrels a day in 2025/26 as the reinstated blockade narrowed import options

Vice President Vance said US-Iran talks are 'currently stalled', days before the Islamabad ceasefire is due to expire on 17 August

Vance ranked low US energy prices as the war's first objective, placing Iran's nuclear programme second

Brent fell below $88 a barrel on 13 August, ending a six-session rally, as traders weighed weakening demand

The Revolutionary Guard set out its conditions for reopening Hormuz: lifting the US naval blockade, compensation and sanctions relief

Sinokor fixed a VLCC at $510,000 a day for a Gulf-China voyage through Hormuz, against roughly $200,000 before the war

CENTCOM said it has launched Task Force Falcon Strike, a multinational attack-drone unit spanning air, surface and undersea systems

Iraqi sources say Baghdad will ring Iranian-backed militia centres with army and counter-terrorism units after the 30 September deadline

Satellite imagery shows Kharg Island's western oil terminal loading a tanker again after 25 days idle, its first use since 18 July

Iran's IRGC waterway authority said the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, rejecting Trump's claim that the US controls it

Israel's defence minister said troops will not leave southern Lebanon until Hezbollah disarms

13 August 2026

20 developments

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the Navy can sustain the blockade of Iranian ports indefinitely, rotating ships in and out

Houthi forces claimed a two-drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Jizan refinery, with no Saudi damage assessment by window close

Hapag-Lloyd said the Hormuz closure pushed its second-quarter expenses to nearly $600 million in fuel, insurance, storage and rerouting

Greenpeace said the oil spill from a grounded tanker off Oman now covers roughly 500 square miles in scattered patches

A conflict-event dataset coded five Iranian strike events across five locations on 12-13 August, against zero US or Israeli events

France led a joint declaration by more than 30 states condemning Iran's executions of protest-related detainees

A pilot scheme selling petrol at 87,200 tomans a litre in Kerman Province was suspended hours after launch

The CIA held low confidence in the Israeli intelligence behind the reported threat to Trump that prompted July's Air Force One swap

Brent eased to $87.92 a barrel on 13 August, down 1.19% on the day, after trading between $88 and $91.60 the day before

Congressional Democrats demanded answers on food shortages and plumbing failures aboard the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln

Iraq's intelligence chief and armed-forces director fly to Saudi Arabia on 13 August to discuss militia attacks on Saudi territory

Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority said Hormuz remains blocked and will not reopen until Iran's conditions are accepted

Iraq's prime minister set 30 September as the final date for the US-led coalition to end its mission and withdraw

Pakistani government sources say Washington and Tehran have consented to extend the ceasefire, with only the period unsettled

A senior Iranian official told Reuters that no ceasefire-extension talks exist, because the June memorandum never entered into force

The IEA now expects 2026 oil demand to fall by 1.6 million barrels a day, 510,000 more than it forecast in July

Four drones struck three camps used by Iranian Kurdish opposition groups near Erbil, with no casualties reported

Six mariners were killed and ten wounded when missiles hit a cargo ship in the Bab al-Mandeb, Yemen's recognised government says

Trump said US naval forces have cleared mines from the Strait of Hormuz and declared the waterway open

Hormuz transits fell to 78 in the week to 9 August from 95 the week before, with 45 of them not linked to Iran

12 August 2026

19 developments

Trump wrote on Truth Social that the naval blockade will stay, calling it "a wall of steel", a day after the Vela Nova strike

The spill from the grounded tanker Caroline Bezengi has reached Oman's mainland and covers more than 2,000 sq km

Lebanon's state news agency said an Israeli drone struck an Ashura commemoration site in the south, injuring several people

An IRGC spokesman said US power plants, transmission lines and internet-linked infrastructure would be at risk if strikes resume

Brent rose for a sixth session to $89.81 a barrel, taking the week's gain above 7%, with WTI at $84.08

A human-rights monitor recorded 916 executions in Iran since January, 15 of them in August, and said the true figure is higher

Yemen's government put the death toll from the missile attack on the cargo ship Tihamah at six, after a second missile struck rescuers

Pakistan opened a four-day mediation push in Tehran before the 60-day window from the June MoU expires on 16 August

CENTCOM said it has redirected 55 commercial vessels, disabled three and boarded two since the blockade of Iranian ports resumed on 14 July

Pakistan's interior minister met Pezeshkian, Araghchi and the petroleum minister in Tehran on a visit covering energy and diplomacy

A US Navy helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles into the cargo ship Vela Nova in the Gulf of Oman, disabling it, CENTCOM said

An adviser to the IRGC commander told PBS that Iran's strategy is to prolong the war until Trump's term ends

Turkish officials suspect the Israeli intelligence report of an Iranian plot to kill Trump was fabricated to derail US-Iran talks

A conflict-event dataset recorded no US or Israeli strike events and one Iranian strike event across 10 and 11 August

The IRGC said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz stands regardless of the shipping-route agreement Iran has reached with Oman

Iran's Supreme National Security Council said Hormuz will not reopen until the US lifts the blockade, withdraws forces and releases $24bn

Trump said he is demanding compensation from Iran going back 50 years and has instructed his representatives to raise it in all talks

Khamenei named Ahmad Vahidi commander-in-chief of the IRGC, replacing Mohammad Pakpour, who was killed in earlier strikes

An Iranian parliamentary committee advanced a draft bill barring US- and Israeli-linked ships from Hormuz, with a 20% cargo-value penalty

11 August 2026

20 developments

Brent crude reached $88 a barrel overnight into 11 August, its highest level since 31 July

UNIFIL recorded 455 Israeli projectiles and 97 airspace breaches into southern Lebanon between Friday and Sunday

Houthi forces launched a third wave of missiles and drones at Mocha port and Marib in the early hours of 11 August

Qatar says Iran and Oman have reached a technical stage on reopening Hormuz and agreed inbound and outbound shipping routes

US forces fired a missile at the container ship Vela Nova in the Gulf of Oman, the twelfth vessel hit since the blockade began

Three to five crew were killed aboard the cargo ship Tihamah at anchor near Perim Island, in a suspected Houthi attack

A Houthi drone strike killed two Yemeni government soldiers and wounded seven in Shabwa province

The US average pump price crossed $4.01 a gallon as Brent traded near $87.61 a barrel

Satellite imagery showed twelve ship-to-ship crude transfers off the Oman and UAE coasts as tankers ran dark

Hormuz transits ran at six to seven vessels a day against a pre-war baseline of 130 to 140

Pakistan's defence minister said the United States and Iran are close to some sort of arrangement

Araghchi told German foreign minister Wadephul that securing the strait requires an end to the US naval blockade

Mojtaba Khamenei issued decrees naming six senior commanders, with Ahmad Vahidi as IRGC commander-in-chief

Khamenei ordered the armed forces general staff to complete its merger with the Khatam ol Anbia central headquarters

Trump declined to rule out further military escalation, telling ABC News the ability is there and 'you'll find out'

Trump ordered US negotiators to demand Iranian compensation for killed and wounded Americans in all future talks

CENTCOM has published no public release since 29 July, so no US military account of this window's strikes exists

Iran's Supreme National Security Council set war-damage compensation from Washington as a condition for reopening Hormuz

Trump said the US Navy controls the Strait of Hormuz and has cleared Iranian mines, which no independent source verified

The US strategic petroleum reserve fell to 298.7 million barrels, its lowest level since January 1983

10 August 2026

10 developments

Yemeni officials reported 11 dead and 32 wounded at Mocha after a second, larger wave of missiles and drones on Sunday evening

Trump said the US is low-keying it with Iran and only semi-negotiating, betting on economic pressure over new strikes

Araghchi said the Iran-Oman shipping-lane deal is in final drafting, with inbound and outbound routes running for two to four months

The IRGC called Hormuz a theatre of war and said the strait will stay shut until Washington accepts all of Iran's conditions

Mohsen Rezaei, a former IRGC commander-in-chief, was named secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, replacing Zolghadr

Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal recorded no tanker departures across the ten days to 9 August, with all three berths idle

Araghchi said no negotiations are under way with the US, only an exchange of messages through intermediaries

US reporting says Trump would accept ending the war without a nuclear deal if Iran fully reopens Hormuz

Oil futures rose about 1.2% after Iran set out its reopening conditions, with Brent trading above $83 a barrel

At least 24 tankers were anchored off Larak Island on 7 August, 16 of them under US sanctions

9 August 2026

20 developments

Saudi authorities extinguished a fire at Aramco's Jizan refinery after a Houthi drone strike, reporting no casualties

Yemeni government-aligned forces reported seven killed in a Houthi missile and drone attack on the port of Mocha

Hormuz transits fell 34% week-on-week, with 33 vessels crossing Monday to Thursday against 50 the previous week

War-risk insurance for Gulf voyages is running at 7.5-10% of hull value, about ten times pre-conflict levels

Rosatom resumed staffing at Bushehr, with 25 Russian personnel on site and full restoration tied to a documented ceasefire

Iran summoned close to 100 public figures, including more than 20 actors, over posts using the hashtag "No to executions"

Iranian media reported that national security council secretary Zolghadr submitted a resignation and that Pezeshkian refused it

A transitional Hormuz plan would route inbound ships along Iran's northern coast and outbound ships along Oman's for 2-4 months

Iran is seeking roughly 5% of cargo value as a Hormuz transit fee, against Oman's proposed 3%

CENTCOM has redirected 53 commercial vessels, disabled two and boarded two since the naval blockade began

No tanker has loaded crude at Iran's Kharg Island terminal for at least a week

Iran's president and central bank chief told Khamenei directly that the naval blockade is crippling the economy

Iranian annual inflation stood at 88.6% in late June, with output expected to contract 5.4% this year

The Pentagon told defence firms to speed production of low-cost missiles after the war consumed most US long-range precision stocks

UKMTO logged the 8 August vessel strike off Khasab as an unidentified projectile and recorded no claim of responsibility

Vance says the US is negotiating a protected shipping corridor through Hormuz and expects a deal within days

Iran's security council set six conditions for reopening Hormuz, among them sanctions relief and war reparations

Oman said on 8 August that continued attacks on transiting vessels put the Hormuz navigation talks at risk

Turkey's foreign minister said the Mecca defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan could expand to include Egypt

An open-source tracker recorded no US or Israeli strike inside Iran for eight consecutive nights to 7 August

8 August 2026

20 developments

The UAE says an Iranian missile struck an ADNOC tanker off Khasab in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a fire

Iran's Supreme National Security Council has yet to ratify the Hormuz corridor framework, Iranian state media said

Foreign Minister Araghchi said talks with Oman on Hormuz traffic are "very close to an agreement"

US Vice President Vance said Iran has privately told Washington it has no plans to toll the Strait of Hormuz

Israeli troops entered the Lebanese-army-held village of Zawtar al-Gharbiya and built an earthen barrier, an AFP reporter saw

An IRGC spokesman said reopening the Strait of Hormuz depends on the US fully accepting Iran's conditions, not the Oman framework

President Pezeshkian said now is the best time for a Hormuz agreement to be reached

Qatar and Bahrain rejected using the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip and called for it to reopen

An Iranian opposition council reported at least 26 executions across Iran over a single week

The US Treasury sanctioned Dubai crypto exchange Shelbit for processing IRGC-linked funds within an alleged $4bn evasion scheme

Houthi fire on a displacement camp near Sahn al-Jinn in Marib killed two civilians and wounded 14, Yemeni authorities said

Iran's Foreign Ministry denied that talks with the US are underway, contradicting Trump's account of an all-day negotiation

An Israeli drone struck a Lebanese Armed Forces bulldozer in Mansouri, Tyre district, wounding one soldier

Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine is reported to have privately urged senior officials to seek an off-ramp from the war

CENTCOM says it has redirected 51 commercial vessels under the blockade since 14 July, against 44 on 3 August

A source close to the Saudi military said the coalition will not allow the balance of power in Yemen to be changed

A running tally puts the six-month war's added cost to a US household at $527.07 as of 4 August

Kharg Island's three crude export terminals stood idle, with 19 tankers waiting offshore without normal tracking signals

Aramco lifted Red Sea crude exports from about 750,000 b/d to near 4mn b/d by switching to its East-West pipeline

Qatar has lost more than $10bn in LNG export revenue over six months of the conflict

7 August 2026

20 developments

US Treasury Secretary Bessent said a 30-60 day ceasefire and a parallel Hormuz resolution could be reached today or tomorrow

Iran said on 7 August that its Hormuz framework with Oman is finalised, with the final text still to be published

Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, treating an attack on one as an attack on all

Iraq raised its national alert level as an Iran-aligned militia ultimatum over the US-Saudi strikes expired without an attack

ADNOC Logistics reported one crew member killed and 20 injured across 15 of its vessels struck since the war began

Hormuz transits averaged 3.9 vessels a day over the past seven days, about 4% of the pre-war level

Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are due to sign a trilateral defence pact in Jeddah on 7 August

Mossad chief Roman Gofman reportedly removed two senior officials behind an abandoned plan to unseat Iran's leadership

A Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia's Najran region wounded 11 civilians, among them a woman and a four-year-old child

An Iranian parliamentary committee is reviewing a draft bill to bar US and Israeli ships from the Strait of Hormuz

Houthi missile and drone attacks on Yemeni government camps in Marib and Hadramawt killed at least 30 soldiers

Iran's parliamentary Hormuz plan would keep US- and Israel-linked ships barred until Tehran is compensated for war damage

Eight shipping industry associations, among them BIMCO and the ICS, wrote to the UN opposing mandatory Hormuz transit fees

US crude imports from Saudi Arabia fell to zero in July, the first full month without Saudi shipments in 41 years

Iran and Oman agreed in principle on the coordinates of a temporary Strait of Hormuz shipping route

Iran's foreign ministry said the Oman agreement alone is not enough to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

Israel's Knesset defence committee voted to extend call-up authority for up to 240,000 reservists to 30 September

A senior Saudi official said intelligence detected planning for coordinated militia and Houthi attacks on Saudi ports and energy sites

Oman has proposed a 3% transit fee on declared cargo value for the Hormuz route, against Iran's 5-7%

Brent's futures curve stayed in backwardation, with near-term contracts about $8 a barrel above six-month contracts

6 August 2026

20 developments

Houthi missiles and drones hit Yemeni army camps in Marib and Hadramaut, killing at least 30 soldiers by government counts

Saudi Arabia announced a 13-country Red Sea maritime coalition that excludes the United States and the European Union

Mediators suspended the Rome round between Israel and Lebanon for a second day running on 6 August, citing 'events on the ground'

Israeli strikes on Burj al-Shamal near Tyre in southern Lebanon wounded between four and eight people on 6 August

The Houthis said they struck the tanker Wafa near Yanbu, taking to eight the Saudi-linked vessels they claim to have hit

Brent was quoted near $83.64 on the morning of 6 August, about $4 above the settlement figures reported a day earlier

Iran's intelligence ministry said it arrested 25 people in Kerman province, 21 of them accused of passing air-defence data to Israel

Mohammad-Bagher Kharrazi, a relative by marriage of the Khamenei family, said publicly that the Islamic Republic 'doesn't work anymore'

Iran Human Rights recorded 71 executions in July, bringing its documented total for 2026 to at least 444

The Houthis said they fired a ballistic missile at the Saudi-operated tanker Daisy in the Gulf of Aden

A tanker master reported hearing two explosions while transiting the Strait of Hormuz near Kumzar, Oman, on 5 August

Pezeshkian said contact with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is 'very difficult', holding up sign-off on the Hormuz draft

The United States said it strongly opposes any arrangement letting Iran charge fees on Strait of Hormuz transits

Iran told Gulf capitals that renewed US strikes on its territory would trigger Iranian attacks on regional energy infrastructure

Trump told Fox News that Iran will 'get hit really hard' if it backs out of talks again

An explosive device killed two Israeli reservists and wounded four at Majdal Zoun in southern Lebanon on 5 August

The seventh round of US-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks in Rome broke off early after Israel's envoy requested a suspension

Trump confronted Defense Secretary Hegseth over shortages of long-range precision munitions and air-defence interceptors

Brent crude settled below $80 on 5 August, a third consecutive losing session

Kataib Hezbollah's leader rejected Iraq's end-September disarmament deadline and said the group will expand its arsenal

5 August 2026

20 developments

The UN human rights chief said at least 56 people have been executed on national-security charges in Iran since 19 March

Iran and Oman agreed the coordinates of a two-way Hormuz shipping corridor, with a joint statement in final drafting

Iranian and Omani negotiators finished a draft text that now awaits sign-off from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei

Iranian state television said the corridor agreement does not reopen the strait while what Tehran calls US violations continue

An Israeli strike on Tebnine in southern Lebanon killed one person and wounded 11 to 12, Lebanese state media reported

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree threatened to strike Saudi oil tankers transiting the northern Red Sea

Secretary of State Rubio said there has been progress in the Hormuz talks but no finality yet

Brent traded in an $80.37 to $83.72 band on 5 August, modestly higher than the day before

Strait of Hormuz transits held at eight vessels on 5 August, against a pre-war baseline of roughly 130 to 140 a day

The US Treasury removed counterterrorism sanctions on Fly Baghdad Airlines and two of its aircraft

Khamenei's office called the claim that the Supreme Leader would accept a Pezeshkian resignation entirely false

Brent crude fell about 4.7% on 4 August to roughly $79.82 a barrel

Pezeshkian said on state television that he will not resign, rejecting a cleric's claim of repeated resignation threats

Iran's leadership approved terms for a 60-day interim Hormuz arrangement, a US official and a regional source said

Indian-flagged cargo vessel MSV Faize Noore Oliya sank 13 nautical miles south of Hodeidah after a projectile strike

Iran is privately weighing letting European navies clear mines from a proposed central Hormuz channel, people familiar said

Iranian officials cite unresolved issues over the reopening mechanism, maritime service fees and security arrangements

Trump discussed de-escalation by phone with Qatar's Emir, who urged implementation of the earlier US-Iran memorandum

Three officials said the US has expended nearly 80% of its key missile interceptors since the war began

Saudi-linked Bab el-Mandeb crossings averaged 0.86 a day over 27 July to 2 August, down from 1.83 beforehand

4 August 2026

20 developments

Iran said no IAEA inspectors are currently in the country, with a delegation visit expected in less than 10 days

The IRGC struck a US military installation area in Kuwait with at least three drones

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US and Iran may reach a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz 'today or tomorrow'

Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said an Oman route deal alone would not reopen the Strait without an end to US strikes

Sources familiar with the negotiations described a draft Iran-Oman arrangement giving Iran control of the inbound lane into the Gulf

A US official said any new shipping routes would be temporary and would not require Iranian approval or permission

Qatar's foreign ministry said draft language for an agreement is circulating between Washington and Tehran

Iran's foreign ministry said it has no plans to send or host negotiating delegations in the coming days

Government sources said US forces have used virtually all ATACMS missiles and about 65% of Patriot interceptors since 28 February

Yemen's Houthis claimed a drone strike on Najran Airport in southern Saudi Arabia, which Saudi authorities have not confirmed

A projectile hit the bulk carrier Minoan Pioneer 20 nautical miles off Al Khasab, Oman, leaving one crew member missing

The US blockade's running total of redirected ships reached 44 on 3 August, nine more than the day before

Trump called the talks Iran's 'last chance' for a deal and said he was offering 'every last chance before decapitation'

US Central Command asked intelligence staff for 'creative and unconventional' ways to pressure and punish Iran

The Pentagon signed contracts with Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman to quadruple output of missile-interceptor components

Brent's September contract traded at $85.79 a barrel against $77.49 six months out, a gap of roughly $8

Zarif and Rezaei took opposing public positions on how long Iran should keep the Strait of Hormuz closed

Iranian point-to-point inflation was reported at 96%, approaching triple digits

Araghchi said Iran's talks with Oman on a separate-lane transit route through the Strait of Hormuz are in their final stages

QatarEnergy extended force majeure to 24 cargoes after the LNG carrier GasLog Shanghai was struck off Oman on 31 July

3 August 2026

19 developments

Brent fell 5.1% to $83.44 and WTI 6.4% to $79.28 by 1315 GMT, which traders tied to the cancelled strike

US Central Command emailed military analysts asking for creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran

Singapore's foreign minister rejected Iran's Hormuz transit fees, which Lloyd's List reports reaching $2m a ship

Iran's Foreign Ministry said it is not negotiating with the United States, rejecting Trump's account of Monday talks

Israel's Knesset defence committee extended emergency reservist call-up authority to 30 September, capped at 240,000

A tanker master reported an explosion 20 nautical miles north-east of Khasab, with vessel and crew reported safe

Iran hanged Omid Behzad and Pouria Safvat at dawn on charges of passing site coordinates to Israeli intelligence

Pezeshkian said the Supreme National Security Council stands behind the June memorandum and urged Washington to honour it

Trump said a new round of US-Iran talks, arranged by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, begins on Monday afternoon

Trump said he called off a planned major strike on Iran after Gulf states and Tehran asked him to hold off

Oman asked whether Araghchi's acceptance of the US-Qatari transit proposal carries Revolutionary Guard backing

Iran's foreign minister said talks with Oman on a new traffic-separation shipping route are in their final stages

An Iranian army spokesman said Iran used the ceasefire to import, repair and produce weapons, including an upgraded drone

Yemen's Houthis widened their declared blockade of Saudi shipping through Bab el-Mandeb after Saudi strikes on Sanaa airport

CENTCOM said it has diverted 35 commercial vessels, disabled two and boarded two more under the naval blockade

The LNG carrier GasLog Shanghai lost propulsion off the Omani coast after a projectile hit its port engine room

Iran executed Arvin Kheirkhah, a 20-year-old detained during the January protests, at Shahroud prison on 1 August

Cyberattacks disrupted municipal water systems in at least seven US states, with 30 or more affected in Minnesota

Brent crude closed July near $88 a barrel, up 24% over the month

2 August 2026

20 developments

Iran's Fars and Mehr agencies rejected Trump's claim of an agreed framework, saying Hormuz stays closed to uncoordinated vessels

Iran's negotiating team called the reported Qatar- and US-brokered plan to split Hormuz transit between Iranian and Omani waters false

No strike by any party was recorded after the cancellation, per a live-blog entry timestamped 06:37 EDT on 2 August

Trump said he cancelled the approved strike on Iran, citing agreed "perimeters of a deal" covering Hormuz and the nuclear file

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman telephoned Trump about an hour earlier, urging him not to hit Iranian energy sites

Foreign Minister Araghchi told Pakistani, Turkish and Saudi counterparts by phone that Iran would answer any attack in kind

Kuwait said the drones intercepted on 1 August hit several vital facilities, including a government building in the north

The White House said Iran "will continue to pay" until it comes to the table, hours after Trump announced the halted strike

Israeli media report the government learned of the cancelled strike from Trump's post rather than through direct coordination

Brent futures moved into backwardation, the September contract at $85.79 against $77.49 six months out

Iranian authorities blocked or seized at least 72 high-profile social-media accounts and sealed 23 businesses between 11 July and 1 August

An explosion occurred near a second vessel 21 nautical miles north-west of Khasab on 1 August, with no damage or injuries recorded

A projectile hit the LNG carrier GasLog Shanghai, carrying Qatari cargo, off Oman and damaged its engine room, with no injuries reported

Iran's national security secretary said continued naval blockade enforcement could push Tehran to close sea passages beyond Hormuz

Two IRGC officers said Quds Force staff used the April ceasefire to coordinate with Hezbollah, Houthi and Iraqi militia commanders

Iran's Statistical Center put point-to-point inflation at 87.9% for July, with rural inflation at 106.9%

An opposition group counted at least 72 executions in Iran during July, including seven prisoners held over the January unrest

Yemen's Houthi authorities denied planning to charge ships for Red Sea passage, calling their transit service voluntary and free

US and Israeli planning for the 1-2 August weekend put Iran's oil terminals, refining capacity and Kharg Island on the target list

A maritime intelligence vendor named the two LNG carriers burned at Egypt's Port of Damietta and attributed the attack to Iran

1 August 2026

20 developments

No attack on Iranian energy sites had been carried out as of 16:20 GMT on 1 August, and no go-order was reported

Iraq and Turkey signed a one-year deal to keep 750,000 barrels a day flowing through their pipeline, bypassing Hormuz

An Israeli official said Israel had not been asked to join US operations against Iran, contradicting US sourcing in the same report

US embassies in Amman, Jerusalem and Baghdad told American citizens to prepare to leave, urging those in Iraq to depart immediately

Iran executed Arvin Kheirkhah, a 20-year-old sentenced to death over the January protests, at Shahroud prison

Iran's foreign minister warned the UK, Bulgaria and Cyprus that hosting attacks on Iran would make them aggressors

Kuwait said it destroyed a fresh wave of Iranian drones at dawn on 1 August, with falling shrapnel hitting a government facility

An unknown projectile hit a tanker 11 nautical miles off Lima, Oman, damaging its engine room and leaving it without propulsion

Iranian officials said the armed forces have a broad plan ready to strike US and Israeli sites across the region

Hormuz transits rose to nine vessels on 1 August, against about 140 a day before the crisis

Trump ordered preparations for a fresh strike on Iranian energy infrastructure, with officials saying no final order has been given

Trump told a Camp David Cabinet meeting that US strikes will continue until Iran "can't take it anymore"

Iran's new Persian Gulf Strait Authority said passage through Hormuz is "not possible" and paused transit permits

The IRGC said it struck and halted two oil tankers transiting Hormuz under US military escort

Iran said it hit two US-linked airbases in Kuwait with kamikaze drones, a claim CENTCOM answered by reporting no damage

Tehran's prosecutors opened cases against people who publicly criticised last week's executions of two protesters in Isfahan

A Houthi foreign-affairs source denied Yemeni responsibility for the drone strike on two gas carriers at Egypt's Damietta port

Iran has halted talks with the United States until Israeli strikes in Lebanon stop, one Iraqi outlet reported

Iran's ambassador to Moscow said Tehran and Oman will jointly set a Hormuz transit fee for Western ships

Weapons forensics identified a 2,000lb Mark-84 bomb at a Qeshm Island home where a family of three was killed

31 July 2026

10 developments

Brent settled near $89 after touching above $92 this week, on track for its biggest monthly gain since March at about 21%

US Treasury sanctioned two Shanghai firms and an executive for shipping electronics to Iran's Mahan Air

US Navy warships began escorting some tankers through Hormuz, though overall transit stayed about 90% below normal

British Airways permanently ended its Jeddah service as Gulf carriers cancelled flights across the region

Fourteen states signed a founding statement launching Saudi Arabia's maritime-defence coalition, without the UAE and Oman

The US State Department said a return to direct talks with Iran is not imminent and remains in a difficult phase

CENTCOM said no US aircraft were lost in its strike wave on Iran, disputing IRGC claims of destroyed jets in Jordan

Iraq's prime minister cancelled his first official visit to Saudi Arabia after US-Saudi air strikes killed about 20 fighters on Iraqi soil

A drone struck the US-owned LNG storage unit at Egypt's Damietta port, marking the war's first attack on Egyptian territory

Trump threatened to destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant for every ship Iran fires on in Hormuz

30 July 2026

20 developments

Saudi Arabia is consulting dozens of countries to build a coalition protecting Red Sea shipping as the Houthi blockade holds

US revoked the licence permitting limited Iranian oil sales after the IRGC Navy said it halted three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz

Local media reported three civilians killed on Iran's Qeshm Island in the overnight US strikes, including a two-year-old child

Iran launched retaliatory strikes on Kuwait, hitting the Ali al-Salem air base and a Chinese firm's site, where one worker was killed

US struck dozens of IRGC targets across at least six Iranian provinces overnight, ending its five-night pause in the air campaign

Brent crude closed at $90.74 a barrel on 29 July, up 7.9%, after the Jordan strike and near-halted Hormuz traffic

US Treasury sanctioned eight tankers and ten firms, six of them China-based, for moving Iranian oil through the Strait of Hormuz

Houthi forces hit Saudi oil facilities with drones launched from Iraqi soil, coordinated with Iraqi militias under IRGC supervision

Trump warned of further US strikes on Iran while framing them as contingent on reaching an agreement

Iran said it has submitted no request to negotiate with the US in the past 15 days, denying an active back-channel

Rights monitors said Iran moved protester Kaveh Arabian toward execution and upheld a second protester's death sentence

The Houthis said they will expand their Red Sea blockade and are weighing a toll system for ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb

A drone struck the US-owned tanker Energos Winter at Egypt's Damietta port and started a fire that spread to a second vessel

US and Saudi aircraft struck Iran-aligned militia sites across seven Iraqi provinces, killing at least 20 fighters and wounding 32

China supplied Iran 300 to 400 shoulder-fired air-defence systems via Pakistan in a reported deal Beijing and Islamabad denied

At least 14 drone strikes since 27 July hit Iranian-Kurdish opposition bases in Iraqi Kurdistan, Kurdish authorities said

Israel mobilised about 100,000 additional reservists and said it is prepared to resume strikes on Iran

Iran's missile strike on a US airbase in Jordan was intercepted in full, CENTCOM and Jordan's military said, with no casualties

Iran publicly hanged two men in Isfahan convicted over deaths during January's unrest, bringing the case total to four executed

Hormuz tanker transits fell to zero on both 24 and 25 July, against a historical norm near 138 vessels a day

29 July 2026

40 developments

Kataib Hezbollah threatened to strike US assets in Saudi Arabia and gave Iraq's government until 6 August to defend its sovereignty

Iran's IRGC Navy said it stopped three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz for taking an 'unsafe and illegal route'

Iran's deputy foreign minister Gharibabadi countered Oman's even split, asking that parts of both Hormuz legs sit in Iranian waters

Iran rejected a US proposal in Islamabad-mediated indirect talks and the US withdrew its delegates

The IRGC said it struck and stopped three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz that ignored its warnings

The US Treasury sanctioned eight tankers and ten entities, six of them China-based, over Iran-related shipping

China and Pakistan denied a Reuters report that 300 to 400 man-portable air-defence systems are being routed to Iran

China is reportedly shipping 300-400 shoulder-fired air-defence missiles to Iran via Pakistan, a claim Beijing and Islamabad both deny

Brent rebounded 4% to $87.73 a barrel on 29 July, reversing the prior week's decline after Iran's missile attack

China will reportedly supply Iran with air-defence missiles within weeks

US and Saudi aircraft struck Iran-backed militia sites in eastern Iraq on 29 July, the first Saudi-claimed strikes inside Iraq this war

Jordan's armed forces said they detected and shot down five missiles fired from Iran under their rules of engagement

Iraq's prime minister cancelled a planned Jeddah meeting with the Saudi crown prince after the joint strikes on Iraqi soil

A Hezbollah drone hit an Israeli army engineering vehicle in south Lebanon, which the IDF called a breach of the June ceasefire

The front-month Brent contract traded $8.92 a barrel above the sixth month, the widest premium since 10 June

Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces said at least 20 of its fighters were killed and 32 wounded in the joint strikes

Iran's deputy parliament speaker, Ali Nikzad, said the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its previous status

Trump said the US would hit Iran hard in retaliation after the missile attack on its forces in Jordan

Trump said the US would be hitting Iran hard in response to the ballistic-missile launch at American forces

Iran fired ballistic missiles at US forces on 28 July, and CENTCOM said all were intercepted with no casualties

Israeli intelligence presented to Trump alleges Iran moved centrifuges to the underground Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz

Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces put their losses from the US-Saudi strikes at 20 killed and 32 wounded

Netanyahu presented Trump with three Iran options at the White House: a diplomatic deal, continued sanctions, or a major offensive

Analysts map a three-way split in Iran's leadership over Hormuz, from IRGC hardliners to a Pezeshkian-aligned compromise bloc

Trump said on 28 July that the US would strike the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site if Iran does not reach an agreement

All six Strait of Hormuz transits on 27 July used the IRGC-controlled northern corridor, with none through the contested southern channel

Iran said Ukraine told it the Caspian Sea strike that killed an Iranian sailor was unintentional

Ukraine told Tehran that its 25 July Caspian Sea strike, which killed an Iranian sailor, was unintentional

Iran's foreign ministry said no negotiations are underway and called reports of an Iranian initiative fabrications

Pakistan says Iran has signalled readiness to resume talks on a phased agenda taking Hormuz first and the nuclear file last

Iran rejected Oman's proposed 50-50 split of Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, demanding full control of the inbound lane

Economic protests spread across at least nine Iranian cities in late July as the IMF projected a 5.4% GDP contraction for 2026

UKMTO reported that CENTCOM had redirected 17 commercial vessels, disabled two and boarded two enforcing the blockade of Iranian ports

Amnesty International said at least 60 protest-linked defendants in Iran face execution, three of them minors when the offence occurred

Houthis struck a fourth Saudi tanker, the NCC Ghazal, with ballistic missiles, forcing it to turn back under their Saudi-shipping ban

Iran publicly executed two men in Isfahan on 28 July over January protests, its first public executions of 2026, as crowds gathered

Windward recorded no tanker crossings of the Strait of Hormuz on 27 July, a count that UKMTO's official figures do not match

China and Pakistan denied a Reuters report that 300 to 400 Chinese shoulder-launched air-defence launchers are being shipped to Iran

Trump and Netanyahu met at the White House for about 80 minutes on 28 July, their first meeting in person since the war began

Asian spot LNG rose to $22/MMBtu as the Hormuz crisis cut Qatari and Emirati gas loadings

28 July 2026

20 developments

Brent crude settled near $86.58 on 28 July, down about 1.5% in a third consecutive session of losses

Trump met Netanyahu at the White House on 28 July with the Iran war top of the agenda, and played down Israeli pressure to escalate

Trump threatened to hit a named underground site, bridges and power plants, and said the US controls the Strait of Hormuz

Oman offered Iran a joint Hormuz-management scheme modelled on the Strait of Malacca and funded by voluntary contributions

A separate US-Iran back-channel on Red Sea and Hormuz shipping was reported, with Washington seeking an end to attacks at sea

Iran estimated its total conflict losses at about $270 billion, including destroyed natural-gas production capacity

Commercial transits through Bab el-Mandeb fell to 15 vessels on 26 July from 34 on 20 July, a 56% decline

Iran's foreign ministry said it will not let the US set the timing of war and peace and will keep defending itself as long as necessary

The US Joint Chiefs chairman said Russia continued sharing intelligence and satellite imagery with Iran to help target US forces

An execution monitor put Iran's 2026 total at 424 across all categories, up about 54 over July

Iran executed two more protesters in Isfahan on 28 July, raising executions in the Alikhani Square case to four of 12 sentenced

A US think tank reported Iranian-backed militias struck Jordanian and Saudi energy sites, a claim not independently corroborated

Netanyahu left Israel from a military airbase under secret arrangements, citing an Iranian threat, ahead of his 28 July Trump meeting

Iran vowed to answer Ukraine's deadly Caspian Sea strike on Iranian-linked vessels and summoned Kyiv's chargé d'affaires

Trump said he is ready to order strong military action against Iran, larger than prior strikes, if negotiations fail

Iran said it rejected a US proposal and made no request to negotiate, contradicting Trump's claim that a deal was close

Officials reported significant progress in Iran-Oman talks on a Hormuz transit compromise, with a Qatari delegation joining

Pakistani officials said the US may be readying a coastal ground push against Iran even as Islamabad and Qatar relay ceasefire offers

Brent crude fell about 8% on 27 July as the US-Iran strike pause held a fourth day, easing supply-disruption fears

The Pentagon recategorised its Iran-war casualty reporting, raising the cumulative total to 18 killed and 624 wounded

27 July 2026

18 developments

An FDD analysis judged the US short on munitions, naval modernisation and multi-theatre manpower after months of fighting Iran

Saudi Arabia said it destroyed several drones launched from Iraqi territory toward oil installations and Riyadh

Mediators reported progress toward a compromise, with Oman proposing two separately controlled but open shipping lanes through Hormuz

An Iranian source said Tehran will keep holding fire as long as the US maintains its strike pause, now in its third day

Al Arabiya reported Iran and the US each answered a Pakistani-Qatari proposal to resume talks in Geneva, Doha or Islamabad

Iran said a Ukrainian strike on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea killed one sailor

Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written statement there is 'no path forward except jihad and resistance' against the US and Israel

Trump posted AI-generated images depicting a strike on Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal during the strike pause

A US think tank assessed that current US strikes have likely not changed Iran's aim to control Hormuz by force

Netanyahu told Fox News the war ends only with the Iranian government's fall or its abandonment of nuclear weapons work

Netanyahu will meet Trump at the White House on 28 July to discuss Iran, including possible military action

Brent crude fell about 7% to roughly $90 a barrel on 26 July after the US paused strikes

A Patriot battery operated by Greek personnel reportedly intercepted two Houthi missiles aimed at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu on 26 July

Iranian missiles and drones are increasingly evading US air defences through saturation tactics, the Wall Street Journal reported

Araghchi told the EU and Russia that Ukraine's Caspian strike on Iran-linked shipping 'cannot go unanswered'

CENTCOM's Adm. Brad Cooper judged Iran's Hormuz-campaign targets 'mostly exhausted', reported as the driver of the US strike pause

Kpler recorded one vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz in the 24 hours to 25 July, down from a pre-war baseline near 120-140 a day

Iran transferred Issa Chari, sentenced to death on 25 July for alleged PMOI membership, to pre-execution solitary confinement

26 July 2026

20 developments

US strikes on Iran paused for a third night after Trump declined a prepared 14th-night strike plan

Iran's army said it halted retaliatory operations while the US strike pause holds

Iran said deputy-foreign-minister talks with Oman in Tehran on safe Hormuz transit made 'useful' progress

Iran and Oman advanced a Strait of Hormuz transit-toll plan estimated at up to $7bn a year

Iranian state media said an oil tanker exploded after striking a naval mine, having left Iran's designated Hormuz route

US paused its nightly strikes on Iran for a second consecutive night, with a Defense Department source describing operations as on hold

Oman-mediated talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz showed progress but remained unresolved

A Ukrainian strike hit a commercial vessel Tehran describes as Iran-linked in the Caspian Sea, killing one sailor

Satellite thermal data confirmed fires at Saudi Aramco's Jizan refinery after 25 July Houthi strikes on Yanbu and Jizan

US Treasury reportedly designated about $100m in properties tied to new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei

Houthis fired missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities at Yanbu and Jizan, with a fire reported at Jizan

CENTCOM said its naval blockade of Iran continued despite the strike pause: 12 vessels redirected, two disabled and two boarded

Trump said the US was 'locked and loaded and ready to go, but we're talking to them' on Iran, signalling no final decision on a wider strike

Vance and Caine reportedly raised concerns about widening the war at a Friday White House meeting as Trump weighed whether to escalate

Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel after the Aramco strikes before partially retracing

Zelenskyy said he would share intelligence alleging Russian satellite targeting support to Iran

Trump and Netanyahu will meet at the White House on 28 July, officially on Iran and security

US and UK planned a London conference to build a maritime coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

Pakistan and Iran explored a China-initiated path back to US talks, conditioned on a halt to Gulf attacks

Daily Strait of Hormuz crossings fell 70%, from 45 to 13, with most traffic rerouting through Iran's corridor

25 July 2026

31 developments

US skips a 14th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, breaking a 13-night run of bombing

Houthis struck Saudi Aramco sites at Yanbu and Jizan with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones

US intelligence assesses Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei favours nuclear weapons more than his father

Brent crude fell about 4% on the talks-revival reports, retracing from a peak near $102 a barrel

CENTCOM completed a 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, with command centres and communications networks leading the published target list alongside air-defence, missile-storage and coastal-surveillance sites; CENTCOM said the Strait of Hormuz remains open under US escort.

Corroborated

A US missile strike near Ahvaz killed four and wounded five as the 13th-night wave hit sites across Khuzestan, with strikes also reported in Isfahan, Lorestan, Markazi and Hormozgan provinces.

Corroborated

US-led forces intercepted five explosive-laden drones over Erbil, northern Iraq, near a base hosting US forces; no casualties or damage were reported and attribution between Iranian forces and Iraqi militias is unresolved.

The US Navy disabled a second merchant vessel breaching the Iran port blockade, firing into the engine room of the M/T Lavine in the Gulf of Oman; the IMO reports about 6,000 mariners stranded on roughly 400 vessels around the Strait.

Trump said he was considering 'a massive attack, bigger than anything that has happened before' and was 'close to making a decision', framing the exit as either escalated strikes or a deal Iran 'isn't ready' for; two US officials said no decision had been made and no new orders issued.

Corroborated

Trump threatened via Truth Social to strike a bridge or power plant 'in the Capital City of Tehran' in response to any new Iranian attack on a Hormuz tanker, widening the declared target set to the capital.

WSJ reporting, relayed via an aggregator, said Trump has privately 'had it' with negotiations and is inclined to keep striking (primary WSJ source paywalled; relay only).

Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal carried to Tehran by Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi, insisting on a settlement codifying its say over the Strait of Hormuz rather than a time-limited truce.

Corroborated

Pakistan and Iran explored a China-initiated push to restart US-Iran talks, with Iran's interior minister visiting Islamabad a second time in ten days; sourcing cautioned that obstacles to US engagement remain high.

The US and UK are planning a London summit next week to build a Western-Middle Eastern maritime coalition for the Strait of Hormuz, framed as part of a US exit strategy; date and itinerary are not finalised.

Corroborated

Iran addressed the UN Security Council, defending its strikes as lawful self-defence under Article 51 and accusing the US of unlawful attacks it said had killed over 50 Iranians (casualty figure is an Iranian government claim, not independently verified).

The Saudi-led coalition struck Houthi military targets in Hodeidah, including reported hits on telecommunications facilities, after a Houthi attack caused minor hull damage to the Saudi-flagged tanker NCC MASA; no casualties were reported.

Corroborated

A Houthi spokesman narrowed the Red Sea blockade to Saudi-flagged and Saudi-bound shipping, with analysts reporting enforcement selective by flag; Chinese-owned tankers reportedly passed while Saudi- and Western-linked operators faced warnings or attack.

Corroborated

Brent crossed $100 mid-week and peaked near $102 before settling 3.9% lower at $96.78 on Friday, its biggest one-day drop since late June, as traders weighed mediation signals; US retail petrol reached a $4.09 national average.

Corroborated

The war fed into global debt markets, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to 4.71% on 23 July, its highest since January 2025, as traders braced for higher Gulf sovereign borrowing.

Corroborated

US intelligence is formally investigating a reported Russian role in Iran's precision drone strikes on CIA facilities in the Gulf; a Western intelligence memo reportedly judged Russia 'likely' involved, which Russia denies, while Trump said Xi and Putin had assured him neither would arm Iran.

Corroborated

An opposition source reported Iran executed a protester, Mehdi Khanaki, on 23 July and that scattered protests continued amid water and electricity shortages from strike damage (Iranian opposition source, not independently verified).

Bahraini and Kuwaiti warplanes reportedly struck Iranian drone and missile depots, their first direct strikes on Iran

Iran launched drones and missiles at US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait and Qatar

A US missile strike near Ahvaz killed four people and wounded five inside Iran

Bomb-laden drones targeted Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan, with five intercepted near the airport and one crashing nearby

Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal delivered to Tehran by the Iraqi prime minister

China and Pakistan pushed to revive stalled US-Iran talks as Iran's interior minister visited Islamabad

Iran struck US-linked bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain in its broadest retaliation of the week; the IRGC claimed hits on the Ali Al Salem and Udairi bases in Kuwait and Iran's army claimed drone strikes on Al-Azraq in Jordan (claimed effects are Iran-sourced).

Corroborated

The US House passed a second, non-binding war-powers resolution rebuking Trump on Iran 214-208 with four Republicans crossing over, while the Senate fell short 47-49 on a binding measure.

Corroborated

Hormuz war-risk insurance premiums climbed to a reported 7.5-10% of hull value, up from about 5% on 11 July, implying $3-10m in added cost on a $100m tanker.

Corroborated

A Qatar-Pakistan-Egypt 10-day truce proposal stalled on the same Hormuz-control impasse, with an envoy meeting Iran's leadership on 24 July but no agreed diplomatic text.

24 July 2026

9 developments

Trump says Gulf shipping-damage claims will be paid from frozen Iranian assets; Araghchi calls it an 'incendiary precedent'.

Iranian officials signal Iran would strike Tel Aviv and seek a Bab al-Mandab blockade if the US strikes Tehran.

Corroborated

Iran returns a ten-point counter-proposal tying any settlement to the Strait of Hormuz's legal status, which a US official calls 'maximalist'.

Southern Red Sea war-risk premiums roughly triple in three days, passing 1% of hull value.

Brent eases to about $100.40 a barrel, holding above $100.

Corroborated

US missile strike near Ahvaz kills four and wounds five on the 13th consecutive night of CENTCOM strikes.

Corroborated

Iraqi PM al-Zaidi's Tehran visit yields four cooperation agreements and a timetable for US troops to leave Iraq by end-September.

Corroborated

Trump conditions the new US-Saudi civil-nuclear pact on Saudi normalisation with Israel.

Corroborated

Hormuz daily tanker transits fall to 10 on 22 July from 16 the day before.

Get the news digest by email each morning and evening.

Your email is processed in accordance with GDPR. We send updates only — no marketing, no sharing.