News tracking is live, published at 06:00 and 18:00 CET, with each update sent to subscribers by email the same morning or evening. The tracker is the news layer; the fuller Phase 2 scenario framework is still in preparation.

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Phase 2 Stale — Last updated 25 July 2026 at 06:18 CEST
No update for this cycle. Last confirmed update 25 July 2026 at 06:18 CEST. The next scheduled cycle is expected shortly.

What changed

US strikes on Iran ran to a 13th consecutive night, with command and communications nodes leading the published target list and a reported missile strike near Ahvaz killing four, and Iran answered with its broadest retaliation of the week against US-linked bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain. Trump threatened to widen the declared target set to a bridge or power plant in Tehran should Iran attack another Hormuz tanker, and Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal carried by Iraq's prime minister that left control of the Strait unresolved. Saudi Arabia struck Houthi-held Hodeidah after a Houthi attack on a Saudi-flagged tanker, and Brent, having crossed $100 mid-week, settled 3.9% lower at $96.78 on Friday as mediation signals registered.

25 July 2026

21 developments

CENTCOM completed a 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, with command centres and communications networks leading the published target list alongside air-defence, missile-storage and coastal-surveillance sites; CENTCOM said the Strait of Hormuz remains open under US escort.

Corroborated

A US missile strike near Ahvaz killed four and wounded five as the 13th-night wave hit sites across Khuzestan, with strikes also reported in Isfahan, Lorestan, Markazi and Hormozgan provinces.

Corroborated

US-led forces intercepted five explosive-laden drones over Erbil, northern Iraq, near a base hosting US forces; no casualties or damage were reported and attribution between Iranian forces and Iraqi militias is unresolved.

The US Navy disabled a second merchant vessel breaching the Iran port blockade, firing into the engine room of the M/T Lavine in the Gulf of Oman; the IMO reports about 6,000 mariners stranded on roughly 400 vessels around the Strait.

Trump said he was considering 'a massive attack, bigger than anything that has happened before' and was 'close to making a decision', framing the exit as either escalated strikes or a deal Iran 'isn't ready' for; two US officials said no decision had been made and no new orders issued.

Corroborated

Trump threatened via Truth Social to strike a bridge or power plant 'in the Capital City of Tehran' in response to any new Iranian attack on a Hormuz tanker, widening the declared target set to the capital.

WSJ reporting, relayed via an aggregator, said Trump has privately 'had it' with negotiations and is inclined to keep striking (primary WSJ source paywalled; relay only).

Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal carried to Tehran by Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi, insisting on a settlement codifying its say over the Strait of Hormuz rather than a time-limited truce.

Corroborated

Pakistan and Iran explored a China-initiated push to restart US-Iran talks, with Iran's interior minister visiting Islamabad a second time in ten days; sourcing cautioned that obstacles to US engagement remain high.

The US and UK are planning a London summit next week to build a Western-Middle Eastern maritime coalition for the Strait of Hormuz, framed as part of a US exit strategy; date and itinerary are not finalised.

Corroborated

Iran addressed the UN Security Council, defending its strikes as lawful self-defence under Article 51 and accusing the US of unlawful attacks it said had killed over 50 Iranians (casualty figure is an Iranian government claim, not independently verified).

The Saudi-led coalition struck Houthi military targets in Hodeidah, including reported hits on telecommunications facilities, after a Houthi attack caused minor hull damage to the Saudi-flagged tanker NCC MASA; no casualties were reported.

Corroborated

A Houthi spokesman narrowed the Red Sea blockade to Saudi-flagged and Saudi-bound shipping, with analysts reporting enforcement selective by flag; Chinese-owned tankers reportedly passed while Saudi- and Western-linked operators faced warnings or attack.

Corroborated

Brent crossed $100 mid-week and peaked near $102 before settling 3.9% lower at $96.78 on Friday, its biggest one-day drop since late June, as traders weighed mediation signals; US retail petrol reached a $4.09 national average.

Corroborated

The war fed into global debt markets, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to 4.71% on 23 July, its highest since January 2025, as traders braced for higher Gulf sovereign borrowing.

Corroborated

US intelligence is formally investigating a reported Russian role in Iran's precision drone strikes on CIA facilities in the Gulf; a Western intelligence memo reportedly judged Russia 'likely' involved, which Russia denies, while Trump said Xi and Putin had assured him neither would arm Iran.

Corroborated

An opposition source reported Iran executed a protester, Mehdi Khanaki, on 23 July and that scattered protests continued amid water and electricity shortages from strike damage (Iranian opposition source, not independently verified).

Iran struck US-linked bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain in its broadest retaliation of the week; the IRGC claimed hits on the Ali Al Salem and Udairi bases in Kuwait and Iran's army claimed drone strikes on Al-Azraq in Jordan (claimed effects are Iran-sourced).

Corroborated

The US House passed a second, non-binding war-powers resolution rebuking Trump on Iran 214-208 with four Republicans crossing over, while the Senate fell short 47-49 on a binding measure.

Corroborated

Hormuz war-risk insurance premiums climbed to a reported 7.5-10% of hull value, up from about 5% on 11 July, implying $3-10m in added cost on a $100m tanker.

Corroborated

A Qatar-Pakistan-Egypt 10-day truce proposal stalled on the same Hormuz-control impasse, with an envoy meeting Iran's leadership on 24 July but no agreed diplomatic text.

24 July 2026

9 developments

Trump says Gulf shipping-damage claims will be paid from frozen Iranian assets; Araghchi calls it an 'incendiary precedent'.

Iranian officials signal Iran would strike Tel Aviv and seek a Bab al-Mandab blockade if the US strikes Tehran.

Corroborated

Iran returns a ten-point counter-proposal tying any settlement to the Strait of Hormuz's legal status, which a US official calls 'maximalist'.

Southern Red Sea war-risk premiums roughly triple in three days, passing 1% of hull value.

Brent eases to about $100.40 a barrel, holding above $100.

Corroborated

US missile strike near Ahvaz kills four and wounds five on the 13th consecutive night of CENTCOM strikes.

Corroborated

Iraqi PM al-Zaidi's Tehran visit yields four cooperation agreements and a timetable for US troops to leave Iraq by end-September.

Corroborated

Trump conditions the new US-Saudi civil-nuclear pact on Saudi normalisation with Israel.

Corroborated

Hormuz daily tanker transits fall to 10 on 22 July from 16 the day before.

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