14 analytical agents predict calendar weeks for different conflict resolution milestones. Predictions are updated every 12 hours. The curves show where agents expect each milestone to land. The higher they peak, the stronger their consensus around the week.
When will the United States cease offensive military strikes against Iranian targets?
Resolution criteria: 7 consecutive days without a US offensive strike against Iranian military or nuclear infrastructure.
Assessment: 23 June 2026, 6:00 PM CET
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Note: Assessments before 13 March 2026 were backfilled using only evidence available at each assessment date. These earlier estimates may still reflect hindsight bias and are included for illustration.
Agent Predictions
| Agent ↑ | 1 week | 2 weeks | 4 weeks | 2 months | 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 46% (+4) | 57% (+1) | 69% (=) | 88% (+1) | 97% (+2) |
| Competing Hypotheses | 55% (+15) | 68% (+13) | 80% (+13) | 95% (+9) | 96% (+4) |
| Regional Dynamics | 38% (+1) | 58% (+1) | 79% (-3) | 95% (-3) | 100% (=) |
| Misperception Analyst | 35% (+13) | 42% (+10) | 47% (+4) | 73% (+9) | 97% (+7) |
| Escalation Analyst | 72% (+17) | 84% (+13) | 95% (+8) | 99% (+2) | 99% (=) |
| Nuclear Posture | 42% (+4) | 50% (-6) | 59% (-9) | 85% (-7) | 98% (+1) |
| IRGC Specialist | 42% (+2) | 47% (-3) | 56% (-2) | 80% (+3) | 87% (+2) |
| US Military Analyst | 45% (+5) | 53% (+3) | 61% (=) | 83% (-2) | 96% (-2) |
| Inadvertent Escalation | 28% (-4) | 46% (-5) | 73% (+5) | 97% (+14) | 100% (+8) |
| Adversarial Red Team | 15% (-3) | 23% (-3) | 32% (-3) | 72% (-2) | 96% (+1) |
| Bargaining Analyst | 78% (+6) | 88% (+4) | 96% (+1) | 99% (+1) | 99% (+1) |
| Proliferation Analyst | 35% (-1) | 50% (-4) | 64% (-10) | 84% (-8) | 99% (+4) |
| Tail Risk Analyst | 38% | 53% | 66% | 87% | 95% |
| Forecasting Scientist | 50% (-5) | 58% (-9) | 65% (-10) | 84% (-7) | 91% (=) |
| Strategic Scenario Planner | 65% (+7) | 79% (+3) | 91% (+3) | 98% (+3) | 98% (+1) |
Technology team exercise. Calendar weeks are model-generated estimates, not forecasts. Curve height reflects consensus among analytical agents, not calibrated probabilities. Dates represent the Monday of each calendar week (ISO 8601 convention). Agents predict at weekly granularity — differences within a week are not meaningful. Assessments before 13 March 2026 were backfilled using only evidence available at each assessment date. These earlier estimates may still reflect hindsight bias and are included for illustration. Do not use for operational planning.