Latest Episode
The Brief
Evening Edition — Day 48
16 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET · 3:22
Pakistan's army chief landed in Tehran carrying a US message. Hours later, the Pentagon threatened to restart bombs and blockade.
- ▸Regional war fell four points to twenty-four per cent.
- ▸Attrition stalemate rose three points to thirteen per cent.
- ▸Declared victory ticked up one point to seventeen per cent.
About The Brief
The Brief is a daily audio briefing from the Iran Conflict Scenario Monitor. Each edition — morning and evening — covers probability shifts across eight conflict scenarios, key developments, where our analysts disagree, and the single most important variable to watch before the next edition.
Episodes are typically two to three minutes. If a lot happened, the briefing runs longer. If nothing much changed, it says so honestly and stays shorter.
This is an AI-generated product, part of an experiment by the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity Through Trade to explore how agentic AI can raise the quality and frequency of its outreach activities. We are not conflict experts — our analytical team is a structured ensemble of AI agents, applying established scenario-analysis methods to publicly available information. The full methodology is described in our analytical setup.
Previous Episodes
Morning Edition — Day 48
16 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Pakistan's army chief met Supreme Leader Khamenei in Tehran overnight. The UAE Vice-President phoned Iran's parliament speaker.
Evening Edition — Day 47
15 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iran threatened to shut down all shipping across three waterways if the blockade continues. Pakistan's army chief landed in Tehran to restart talks before the ceasefire expires in six days.
Morning Edition — Day 47
15 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
A sanctioned Chinese tanker sailed through Hormuz unchallenged on the blockade's first full day. The US must now enforce against Chinese vessels or watch the blockade lose credibility.
Evening Edition — Day 46
14 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Russia pulled almost all its staff from the Bushehr nuclear plant. Mossad chief Barnea declared regime change the mission's objective.
Morning Edition — Day 46
14 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
The blockade is in force and both sides are locked in. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
Evening Edition — Day 45
13 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
The US Navy began enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports this afternoon. Iran threatened every port in the Gulf.
Morning Edition — Day 45
13 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
The US Navy blockade of Iranian ports takes effect at two p.m. GMT today.
Evening Edition — Day 44
12 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Trump ordered a US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran re-closed the strait and denied any American warship had entered.
Morning Edition — Day 44
12 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
The Islamabad talks collapsed overnight on enrichment. Neither side can move on the one issue that matters most.
Evening Edition — Day 43
11 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
The Islamabad talks began Saturday afternoon with both sides present. Iran tabled four conditions that Washington cannot deliver alone.
Morning Edition — Day 43
11 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Hard economic data linking the war to American voters' wallets landed overnight, just as US and Iranian delegations arrived in Islamabad. Declared victory rose one point to seventeen per cent.
Evening Edition — Day 42
10 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Kuwait accused Iran of drone strikes on oil and energy facilities during the ceasefire. Mojtaba Khamenei declared decisive victory and announced a new phase in Hormuz management.
Morning Edition — Day 42
10 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
US and Iranian delegations meet in person today in Islamabad for talks, their governments' direct contact in forty-seven years. Trump simultaneously declared total victory and warned the military is loading up for its next conquest.
Evening Edition — Day 41
9 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Oil is back above a hundred dollars. Zero tankers transited Hormuz today.
Morning Edition — Day 41
9 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
The ceasefire's first full day produced more escalation than the preceding week of open war. A suspected UAE strike on Iran's Lavan refinery triggered Iranian retaliatory salvos against five Gulf capitals.
Evening Edition — Day 40
8 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
The ceasefire lasted half a day. Israel excluded Lebanon and struck a hundred Hezbollah targets in ten minutes.
Morning Edition — Day 40
8 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump announced a two-week ceasefire ninety minutes before his own deadline. Iran accepted with conditions.
Evening Edition — Day 39
7 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iran struck Saudi Arabia's largest petrochemical complex, then severed all diplomatic channels. Regional war rose to fifty-two per cent as industrial targeting across sovereign borders entrenches the multi-party war.
Morning Edition — Day 39
7 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Overnight diplomacy failed. Probabilities are unchanged.
Evening Edition — Day 38
6 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Regional war crossed the majority threshold. Israel struck South Pars, Iran's largest petrochemical complex.
Morning Edition — Day 38
6 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Iran launched its heaviest barrage of the conflict overnight. Iraq formally entered the war.
Morning Edition — Day 37
5 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Iran struck Kuwait's oil ministry headquarters overnight. The conflict's retaliation cycle is now outpacing political decision-making.
Evening Edition — Day 36
4 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Two forces are pulling in opposite directions tonight. Strikes hit Iranian petrochemical plants and landed near a nuclear reactor for the fourth time.
Morning Edition — Day 36
4 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Overnight, Hegseth fired the Army Chief of Staff during wartime. The UN Security Council confirmed it will not authorise force to reopen Hormuz.
Evening Edition — Day 35
3 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
The war crossed two thresholds today. Iran shot down an American fighter jet and struck a desalination plant that supplies ninety per cent of Kuwait's drinking water.
Morning Edition — Day 35
3 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Overnight, US-Israeli strikes destroyed the tallest bridge in the Middle East on a national holiday. That crossing of the civilian infrastructure threshold is the most consequential signal this cycle.
Evening Edition — Day 34
2 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Oil surged past a hundred and eleven dollars after Trump's prime-time address offered no exit mechanism. Markets had positioned for de-escalation.
Morning Edition — Day 34
2 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Israel struck the home of the diplomat running the only confirmed back-channel to Washington. Declared victory drops two points.
Evening Edition — Day 33
1 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Trump threatened to pull the US out of NATO. Iran launched four missile salvos at Dimona.
Morning Edition — Day 33
1 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump said overnight he does not need a deal to end the war. Declared victory rises three points to seventeen per cent.
Evening Edition — Day 32
31 March 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iran struck a fully laden Kuwaiti supertanker off Dubai today, the first attack in a congested anchorage zone since the war began. Regional war rises one point to forty-nine per cent.
Morning Edition — Day 32
31 March 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Two conflicting signals overnight. Trump privately told aides he will end the war without reopening Hormuz.
Evening Edition — Day 31
30 March 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Trump threatened to obliterate Kharg Island and claimed a deal is imminent, on the same day. The IRGC denied any negotiations exist.
Morning Edition — Day 31
30 March 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Overnight brought two competing signals. Trump claimed Iran accepted most of a fifteen-point plan.
Evening Edition — Day 30
29 March 2026, 6:00 PM CET
The US force buildup in the Gulf crossed a threshold today. Regional war ticked up one point to forty-nine per cent.
Morning Edition — Day 30
29 March 2026, 7:11 AM CET
Overnight, Iran struck civilian infrastructure in two Gulf states. Its parliament introduced legislation to quit the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Evening Edition — Day 29
28 March 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Day twenty-nine was the day the war widened beyond doubt. The Houthis fired their first missile at Israel.
Morning Edition — Day 29
28 March 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Russia has started resupplying Iran with drones and targeting intelligence. That is the development that changed the conflict's structure overnight.
Evening Edition — Day 28
27 March 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Israel struck two nuclear facilities today. Iran rejected the peace plan.
Morning Edition — Day 28
27 March 2026, 6:30 AM CET
Evening Edition — Day 27
26 March 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Morning Edition — Day 27
26 March 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Morning Edition — Day 26
25 March 2026, 6:30 AM CET
The US put a ceasefire document on the table for the first time. Iran says it isn't negotiating.
Evening Edition — Day 25
24 March 2026, 6:30 PM CET
The biggest day for diplomacy since the war began. Three developments in five hours that had not happened in the previous twenty-four days.
Morning Edition — Day 25
24 March 2026, 6:30 AM CET
Three exit pressures converged overnight for the first time. The declared-victory pathway ticked up one point
Evening Edition — Day 24
23 March 2026, 6:00 PM CET
A day of contradictory signals. Trump announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure.
Morning Edition — Day 24
23 March 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Iran threatened overnight to destroy Gulf desalination plants, energy facilities and IT infrastructure if Trump strikes power plants. That threat has precedent.
Evening Edition — Day 23
22 March 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iranian drones struck the American embassy in Riyadh today. A significant change to the Hormuz outlook.