Latest Episode
The Brief
Morning Edition — Day 101
8 June 2026, 6:00 AM CET · 2:29
About three minutes this morning. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
- ▸Regional war rose three points to forty-three per cent and is now dominant.
- ▸Declared victory fell one to eight per cent.
- ▸Attrition stalemate fell one to nine.
- ▸Grinding degradation fell one to two.
- ▸Regime fracture rose one to six.
- ▸Nuclear sprint fell one to twenty-one.
About The Brief
The Brief is a daily audio briefing from the Iran Conflict Scenario Monitor. Each edition — morning and evening — covers probability shifts across eight conflict scenarios, key developments, where our analysts disagree, and the single most important variable to watch before the next edition.
Episodes are typically two to three minutes. If a lot happened, the briefing runs longer. If nothing much changed, it says so honestly and stays shorter.
This is an AI-generated product, part of an experiment by the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity Through Trade to explore how agentic AI can raise the quality and frequency of its outreach activities. We are not conflict experts — our analytical team is a structured ensemble of AI agents, applying established scenario-analysis methods to publicly available information. The full methodology is described in our analytical setup.
Previous Episodes
Evening Edition — Day 100
7 June 2026, 8:00 PM CET
About three and a half minutes tonight. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
Morning Edition — Day 100
7 June 2026, 6:00 AM CET
About two and a half minutes this morning. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
Evening Edition — Day 99
6 June 2026, 6:00 PM CET
About three and a half minutes tonight. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
Morning Edition — Day 99
6 June 2026, 6:32 AM CET
About two and a half minutes this morning. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
Evening Edition — Day 98
5 June 2026, 6:00 PM CET
About three and a half minutes tonight. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
Morning Edition — Day 98
5 June 2026, 6:00 AM CET
About two minutes this morning. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
Evening Edition — Day 97
4 June 2026, 6:00 PM CET
About three minutes tonight. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
Morning Edition — Day 97
4 June 2026, 6:00 AM CET
About two and a half minutes this morning. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
Evening Edition — Day 96
3 June 2026, 6:00 PM CET
About three minutes tonight. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
Morning Edition — Day 96
3 June 2026, 6:00 AM CET
About two and a half minutes this morning. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
Evening Edition — Day 95
2 June 2026, 6:00 PM CET
About three and a half minutes tonight. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
Morning Edition — Day 95
2 June 2026, 6:00 AM CET
About two and a half minutes this morning. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
Evening Edition — Day 94
1 June 2026, 6:00 PM CET
About three and a half minutes tonight. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
Morning Edition — Day 94
1 June 2026, 6:00 AM CET
About two minutes this morning. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
Evening Edition — Day 93
31 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
About three and a half minutes this evening. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
Morning Edition — Day 93
31 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
About two and a half minutes this morning. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
Evening Edition — Day 92
30 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
This is just over three minutes tonight. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
Morning Edition — Day 92
30 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump walked out of the Situation Room without signing the Iran deal. Hours later, Tehran published its own version of the terms.
Evening Edition — Day 91
29 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Trump entered the Situation Room for a final determination on the Iran deal. Hours later, Iran denied any text is finalised.
Morning Edition — Day 91
29 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Overnight produced the strongest diplomatic text since the crisis began and, hours later, the sharpest military exchanges in weeks. A deal exists on paper.
Evening Edition — Day 90
28 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iran fired a ballistic missile at a US air base in Kuwait today. Kuwait intercepted it.
Morning Edition — Day 90
28 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Iran attacked Kuwait overnight, striking three targets in a country that has stayed out of the fighting. That is the headline.
Evening Edition — Day 89
27 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
The White House called an Iranian ceasefire draft a fabrication. CENTCOM struck mine-laying boats near Bandar Abbas.
Morning Edition — Day 89
27 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Israel expanded its ground war into Lebanon overnight. That single development moved more probability mass than anything else this cycle.
Evening Edition — Day 88
26 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iran threatened retaliation after CENTCOM hit mine-laying boats near Bandar Abbas. The IRGC claimed it struck US vessels in the Strait.
Morning Edition — Day 88
26 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
The US struck Iranian targets overnight while insisting its ceasefire holds. Iran kept negotiating in Doha anyway.
Evening Edition — Day 87
25 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Trump demanded five Muslim-majority countries join the Abraham Accords as a condition of the Iran deal. Saudi Arabia rejected the demand.
Morning Edition — Day 87
25 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
The MOU is reportedly ninety-five per cent complete. Khamenei issued a directive that enriched uranium should not be sent abroad, contradicting the deal's core nuclear term.
Evening Edition — Day 86
24 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Trump told negotiators not to rush, retreating from the imminent deal expectation. The IRGC rejected nuclear and Hormuz terms outright.
Morning Edition — Day 86
24 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump declared a deal largely negotiated. Axios published the fourteen-point draft.
Evening Edition — Day 85
23 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Trump set a Sunday deadline, telling Axios the odds of a deal are fifty-fifty or he will, in his words, blow them to kingdom come. Mediators drafted a sixty-day ceasefire framework.
Morning Edition — Day 85
23 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
A leaked deal framework shifts the crisis toward a declared US exit. Declared victory rose four points to fourteen per cent, driven by converging exit pressure.
Evening Edition — Day 84
22 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iran is building a parallel maritime order in the Strait of Hormuz. Its claimed zone now extends into UAE and Omani waters, with fees up to two million dollars per crossing.
Morning Edition — Day 84
22 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump gave Iran days to accept terms or face renewed strikes. Israeli state television discussed a commando raid plan to seize enriched uranium near Isfahan on air.
Evening Edition — Day 83
21 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
The Supreme Leader has barred enriched uranium from leaving Iran. That eliminates Washington's core demand for any deal.
Morning Edition — Day 83
21 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Iran threatened to take the war beyond the region. Trump reversed himself again, saying he is an hour away from ordering strikes.
Evening Edition — Day 82
20 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Trump walked back his two-to-three-day ultimatum, telling reporters he is in no hurry to reach a deal. Chinese and South Korean supertankers exited the Strait of Hormuz after waiting for weeks.
Morning Edition — Day 82
20 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump cancelled a planned strike on Iran at the request of Gulf allies, then issued a two-to-three-day ultimatum. CNN reported US intelligence suggesting Israel is independently preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.
Evening Edition — Day 81
19 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iran created a new sovereign authority over the Strait of Hormuz, collecting transit tolls in yuan. Trump coupled deal optimism with the threat of a full-scale assault.
Morning Edition — Day 81
19 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump called off a planned strike on Iran after Gulf allies asked for more time to close a deal. The Pentagon remains on standby.
Evening Edition — Day 80
18 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iran dropped its demand for financial compensation and offered to transfer enriched uranium to a third country. The concession is real but the gap remains wide.
Morning Edition — Day 80
18 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
The IRGC declared total closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It threatened to deactivate US Gulf bases.
Evening Edition — Day 79
17 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
A drone struck the perimeter of the UAE's Barakah nuclear power plant. No attack on nuclear infrastructure in a non-belligerent state has occurred before in this war.
Morning Edition — Day 79
17 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump posted AI-generated images of himself ordering fire on Iran, captioned the calm before the storm. Israeli media report he will decide within twenty-four hours whether to resume strikes.
Evening Edition — Day 78
16 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Khamenei categorically rejected Trump's nuclear proposal. Araghchi declared Iran the victor.
Morning Edition — Day 78
16 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump sent Iran a formal nuclear proposal and warned of serious consequences if teh-RAHN moved slowly. Supreme Leader mojtah-BAH hah-meh-NEH-ee rejected it as excessive and outrageous.
Evening Edition — Day 77
15 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Trump retreated from his demand for a permanent nuclear halt, saying a twenty-year suspension would be enough. On the same day, Iran fired four missile salvos at Israel and struck two Kuwait ports with drones.
Morning Edition — Day 77
15 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
CENTCOM chief Cooper told the Senate that ninety per cent of Iran's defence industry is destroyed. US intelligence analysts say Iran keeps seventy per cent of its missiles.
Evening Edition — Day 76
14 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Trump and Xi agreed in Beijing that Iran must never have nuclear weapons and the Strait of Hormuz must remain open. The probabilities did not move.
Morning Edition — Day 76
14 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump opened a summit with Xi in Beijing. A Chinese supertanker transited Hormuz toll-free.
Evening Edition — Day 75
13 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
The UAE secretly struck Iran in April. A third country is now at war with Iran.
Morning Edition — Day 75
13 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
This is already a multi-state war. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait all struck or confronted Iran weeks ago.
Evening Edition — Day 74
12 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iran threatened to enrich uranium to ninety per cent weapons-grade. Trump is reconsidering combat.
Morning Edition — Day 74
12 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
The ceasefire is collapsing. Trump rejected Iran's counter-proposal, called it garbage, and gave the truce a one per cent chance of surviving.
Evening Edition — Day 73
11 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iran and Saudi Arabia's foreign ministers spoke twice in twenty-four hours. The nuclear question is gaining weight.
Morning Edition — Day 73
11 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump rejected Iran's counter-proposal as totally unacceptable. Hours later, a fourth round of talks in Oman ended with both sides agreeing to continue.
Evening Edition — Day 72
10 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iran replied to the American proposal today. The response addresses ceasefire and Hormuz but rejects the nuclear demands outright.
Morning Edition — Day 72
10 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
The IRGC Navy threatened a heavy assault on US bases if Iranian vessels are attacked again. Hezbollah struck inside Israel for the first time since the April ceasefire.
Evening Edition — Day 71
9 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
The Lebanon front broke open today. Hezbollah launched a record hundred and five attack waves on Israel, including two strikes inside Israel for the first time since the April ceasefire.
Morning Edition — Day 71
9 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
A leaked Russian plan to supply Iran with unjammable drones pushed nuclear sprint up one point overnight. A new report alleging a hidden tritium facility deepened concerns.
Evening Edition — Day 70
8 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Trump threatened Iran with "one big glow." Two more tankers were disabled. And teh-RAHN rejected key terms of the ceasefire deal.
Morning Edition — Day 70
8 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
The ceasefire's credibility collapsed overnight. The US and Iran fought a direct naval engagement in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.
Evening Edition — Day 69
7 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iran's supreme leader is alive and engaged. A confirmed meeting between Pezeshkian and Khamenei lasted two and a half hours.
Morning Edition — Day 69
7 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Saudi Arabia denied US access to Prince Sultan Airbase. That is why Trump paused Project Freedom.
Evening Edition — Day 68
6 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
A one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war is reportedly near completion. If signed, it would give Trump the exit vehicle he has been building toward all week.
Morning Edition — Day 68
6 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump paused Project Freedom after a single day. Exit rhetoric and physical escalation are now moving in opposite directions.
Evening Edition — Day 67
5 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
The ceasefire now officially accommodates sustained violence. Defence Secretary Hegseth declared Iranian attacks on US forces below the threshold for resuming combat.
Morning Edition — Day 67
5 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
The ceasefire is collapsing in practice. Project Freedom's first convoy transited Hormuz under sustained Iranian fire overnight.
Evening Edition — Day 66
4 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iran struck the UAE for the first time since the ceasefire. Cruise missiles, drones, and a fire at Fujairah's oil zone followed Project Freedom's first convoy by hours.
Morning Edition — Day 66
4 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump launched Project Freedom, deploying fifteen thousand troops and guided-missile destroyers to escort stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting tomorrow. Iran declared it a ceasefire violation.
Evening Edition — Day 65
3 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
China ordered its firms to ignore US Iran sanctions. The diplomatic channel is now blocked from both ends.
Morning Edition — Day 65
3 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump rejected Iran's fourteen-point counterproposal but said he would review it. The IRGC declared full standby.
Evening Edition — Day 64
2 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Trump declared Iran decimated and pivoted to domestic policy. The USS Gerald R.
Morning Edition — Day 64
2 May 2026, 7:30 AM CET
Two competing signals overnight. Iran softened its diplomatic posture, and its institutional cohesion publicly fractured.
Evening Edition — Day 63
1 May 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Trump declared the Iran war terminated for legal purposes as Congress left town. Iran submitted a revised peace proposal that changes nothing structurally.
Morning Edition — Day 63
1 May 2026, 6:00 AM CET
The war powers sixty-day deadline arrived overnight. The Senate rejected the sixth war powers resolution forty-seven to fifty.
Evening Edition — Day 62
30 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Big signals, almost no movement. Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal.
Morning Edition — Day 62
30 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz proposal and met energy executives to plan a months-long siege. That closes the near-term exit window, pushing declared victory down one point.
Evening Edition — Day 61
29 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Trump declared Iran militarily defeated at a state dinner with King Charles. Hegseth testified before Congress.
Morning Edition — Day 61
29 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump claimed Iran told the White House it is in a state of collapse. Iran's army responded that the country remains at war.
Evening Edition — Day 60
28 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iran made its first formal written peace offer since the war began. It proposed reopening Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade and ending the fighting.
Morning Edition — Day 60
28 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Five sources of exit pressure converged overnight. The war powers deadline is three days away.
Evening Edition — Day 59
27 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
The diplomatic window narrowed today. Rubio formally rejected Iran's proposal to separate Hormuz from the nuclear file, insisting on nuclear concessions in any deal.
Morning Edition — Day 59
27 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Iran's Deputy Speaker declared the Strait of Hormuz will never return to pre-war conditions. He cited a direct order from Mojtaba Khamenei.
Evening Edition — Day 58
26 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iran's diplomacy pivoted to Moscow today. That shift changes the mediation geometry and tightens the regime's internal alignment.
Morning Edition — Day 58
26 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
The IRGC forced out Iran's chief negotiator for including the nuclear file in talks. Three pressure points converge this week, and one scenario moved.
Evening Edition — Day 57
25 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Trump cancelled the Witkoff-Kushner delegation to Pakistan. Araghchi had already left Islamabad carrying five demands including Hormuz sovereignty and war reparations.
Morning Edition — Day 57
25 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Not much shifted overnight. Both sides continued building parallel diplomatic tracks while tightening economic pressure.
Evening Edition — Day 56
24 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Both sides are building off-ramps. Iran's foreign minister left for three capitals.
Morning Edition — Day 56
24 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Iran's last moderate negotiator may be gone. Ghalibaf reportedly resigned after the IRGC blocked a Qatari proposal.
Evening Edition — Day 55
23 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
The Hormuz closure is becoming permanent. Not because anyone decided it should be, but because the physical and economic conditions now sustain it on their own.
Morning Edition — Day 55
23 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump told Fox News there is no time frame for ending the war. The IRGC publicly named Mojtaba Khamenei as Commander-in-Chief.
Evening Edition — Day 54
22 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
The IRGC seized three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz hours after Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely. Brent crude spiked above a hundred dollars before settling back.
Morning Edition — Day 54
22 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely overnight but kept the naval blockade in place. Iran refused to attend Islamabad Round 2.
Evening Edition — Day 53
21 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Trump told CNBC he expects to be bombing Iran if no deal is reached by Wednesday evening. Both sides are widening the conflict's geographic footprint even as the ceasefire ticks down to its final hours.
Morning Edition — Day 53
21 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Iran publicly rejected the Islamabad talks overnight, then quietly approved a delegation to attend them. Unconfirmed reports of drone attacks on US warships may have already killed the ceasefire before it expires tomorrow.
Evening Edition — Day 52
20 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Hormuz went to zero today. The IRGC's blanket closure order halted all vessel traffic through the Strait on Sunday, and Trump declared a ceasefire extension highly unlikely past Wednesday.
Morning Edition — Day 52
20 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
The US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship overnight. Iran launched drones at US warships in response and formally rejected today's Islamabad talks.
Evening Edition — Day 51
19 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
The ceasefire expires in three days with both sides moving further apart. Trump confirmed a US delegation to Pakistan on Monday, but Iran signalled it may not send negotiators while the naval blockade persists.
Morning Edition — Day 51
19 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
The Iran sanctions waiver lapsed overnight with no renewal, closing the last legal channel for Iranian crude. India formally protested after IRGC gunboats fired on its tankers.
Evening Edition — Day 50
18 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
IRGC gunboats fired on an Indian supertanker in the Strait of Hormuz today. The blockade shifted from access restriction to active armed engagement with commercial shipping.
Morning Edition — Day 50
18 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump claimed Iran agreed to everything on enrichment and uranium handover. Iran denied it within hours.
Evening Edition — Day 49
17 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open today. Four to eight ships actually transited.
Morning Edition — Day 49
17 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ten-day ceasefire overnight. It is the first successful de-escalation on any front since the war began.
Evening Edition — Day 48
16 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Pakistan's army chief landed in Tehran carrying a US message. Hours later, the Pentagon threatened to restart bombs and blockade.
Morning Edition — Day 48
16 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Pakistan's army chief met Supreme Leader Khamenei in Tehran overnight. The UAE Vice-President phoned Iran's parliament speaker.
Evening Edition — Day 47
15 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iran threatened to shut down all shipping across three waterways if the blockade continues. Pakistan's army chief landed in Tehran to restart talks before the ceasefire expires in six days.
Morning Edition — Day 47
15 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
A sanctioned Chinese tanker sailed through Hormuz unchallenged on the blockade's first full day. The US must now enforce against Chinese vessels or watch the blockade lose credibility.
Evening Edition — Day 46
14 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Russia pulled almost all its staff from the Bushehr nuclear plant. Mossad chief Barnea declared regime change the mission's objective.
Morning Edition — Day 46
14 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
The blockade is in force and both sides are locked in. Our analysts track eight scenarios for where this conflict stands four weeks from now.
Evening Edition — Day 45
13 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
The US Navy began enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports this afternoon. Iran threatened every port in the Gulf.
Morning Edition — Day 45
13 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
The US Navy blockade of Iranian ports takes effect at two p.m. GMT today.
Evening Edition — Day 44
12 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Trump ordered a US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran re-closed the strait and denied any American warship had entered.
Morning Edition — Day 44
12 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
The Islamabad talks collapsed overnight on enrichment. Neither side can move on the one issue that matters most.
Evening Edition — Day 43
11 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
The Islamabad talks began Saturday afternoon with both sides present. Iran tabled four conditions that Washington cannot deliver alone.
Morning Edition — Day 43
11 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Hard economic data linking the war to American voters' wallets landed overnight, just as US and Iranian delegations arrived in Islamabad. Declared victory rose one point to seventeen per cent.
Evening Edition — Day 42
10 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Kuwait accused Iran of drone strikes on oil and energy facilities during the ceasefire. Mojtaba Khamenei declared decisive victory and announced a new phase in Hormuz management.
Morning Edition — Day 42
10 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
US and Iranian delegations meet in person today in Islamabad for talks, their governments' direct contact in forty-seven years. Trump simultaneously declared total victory and warned the military is loading up for its next conquest.
Evening Edition — Day 41
9 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Oil is back above a hundred dollars. Zero tankers transited Hormuz today.
Morning Edition — Day 41
9 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
The ceasefire's first full day produced more escalation than the preceding week of open war. A suspected UAE strike on Iran's Lavan refinery triggered Iranian retaliatory salvos against five Gulf capitals.
Evening Edition — Day 40
8 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
The ceasefire lasted half a day. Israel excluded Lebanon and struck a hundred Hezbollah targets in ten minutes.
Morning Edition — Day 40
8 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump announced a two-week ceasefire ninety minutes before his own deadline. Iran accepted with conditions.
Evening Edition — Day 39
7 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iran struck Saudi Arabia's largest petrochemical complex, then severed all diplomatic channels. Regional war rose to fifty-two per cent as industrial targeting across sovereign borders entrenches the multi-party war.
Morning Edition — Day 39
7 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Overnight diplomacy failed. Probabilities are unchanged.
Evening Edition — Day 38
6 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Regional war crossed the majority threshold. Israel struck South Pars, Iran's largest petrochemical complex.
Morning Edition — Day 38
6 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Iran launched its heaviest barrage of the conflict overnight. Iraq formally entered the war.
Morning Edition — Day 37
5 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Iran struck Kuwait's oil ministry headquarters overnight. The conflict's retaliation cycle is now outpacing political decision-making.
Evening Edition — Day 36
4 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Two forces are pulling in opposite directions tonight. Strikes hit Iranian petrochemical plants and landed near a nuclear reactor for the fourth time.
Morning Edition — Day 36
4 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Overnight, Hegseth fired the Army Chief of Staff during wartime. The UN Security Council confirmed it will not authorise force to reopen Hormuz.
Evening Edition — Day 35
3 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
The war crossed two thresholds today. Iran shot down an American fighter jet and struck a desalination plant that supplies ninety per cent of Kuwait's drinking water.
Morning Edition — Day 35
3 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Overnight, US-Israeli strikes destroyed the tallest bridge in the Middle East on a national holiday. That crossing of the civilian infrastructure threshold is the most consequential signal this cycle.
Evening Edition — Day 34
2 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Oil surged past a hundred and eleven dollars after Trump's prime-time address offered no exit mechanism. Markets had positioned for de-escalation.
Morning Edition — Day 34
2 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Israel struck the home of the diplomat running the only confirmed back-channel to Washington. Declared victory drops two points.
Evening Edition — Day 33
1 April 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Trump threatened to pull the US out of NATO. Iran launched four missile salvos at Dimona.
Morning Edition — Day 33
1 April 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Trump said overnight he does not need a deal to end the war. Declared victory rises three points to seventeen per cent.
Evening Edition — Day 32
31 March 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iran struck a fully laden Kuwaiti supertanker off Dubai today, the first attack in a congested anchorage zone since the war began. Regional war rises one point to forty-nine per cent.
Morning Edition — Day 32
31 March 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Two conflicting signals overnight. Trump privately told aides he will end the war without reopening Hormuz.
Evening Edition — Day 31
30 March 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Trump threatened to obliterate Kharg Island and claimed a deal is imminent, on the same day. The IRGC denied any negotiations exist.
Morning Edition — Day 31
30 March 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Overnight brought two competing signals. Trump claimed Iran accepted most of a fifteen-point plan.
Evening Edition — Day 30
29 March 2026, 6:00 PM CET
The US force buildup in the Gulf crossed a threshold today. Regional war ticked up one point to forty-nine per cent.
Morning Edition — Day 30
29 March 2026, 7:11 AM CET
Overnight, Iran struck civilian infrastructure in two Gulf states. Its parliament introduced legislation to quit the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Evening Edition — Day 29
28 March 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Day twenty-nine was the day the war widened beyond doubt. The Houthis fired their first missile at Israel.
Morning Edition — Day 29
28 March 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Russia has started resupplying Iran with drones and targeting intelligence. That is the development that changed the conflict's structure overnight.
Evening Edition — Day 28
27 March 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Israel struck two nuclear facilities today. Iran rejected the peace plan.
Morning Edition — Day 28
27 March 2026, 6:30 AM CET
Evening Edition — Day 27
26 March 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Morning Edition — Day 27
26 March 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Morning Edition — Day 26
25 March 2026, 6:30 AM CET
The US put a ceasefire document on the table for the first time. Iran says it isn't negotiating.
Evening Edition — Day 25
24 March 2026, 6:30 PM CET
The biggest day for diplomacy since the war began. Three developments in five hours that had not happened in the previous twenty-four days.
Morning Edition — Day 25
24 March 2026, 6:30 AM CET
Three exit pressures converged overnight for the first time. The declared-victory pathway ticked up one point
Evening Edition — Day 24
23 March 2026, 6:00 PM CET
A day of contradictory signals. Trump announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure.
Morning Edition — Day 24
23 March 2026, 6:00 AM CET
Iran threatened overnight to destroy Gulf desalination plants, energy facilities and IT infrastructure if Trump strikes power plants. That threat has precedent.
Evening Edition — Day 23
22 March 2026, 6:00 PM CET
Iranian drones struck the American embassy in Riyadh today. A significant change to the Hormuz outlook.