# Iran Conflict Scenario Monitor

> Real-time analytical monitoring of the US-Iran military conflict using a 14-agent AI system. Published by Global Trade Alert. Updated multiple times daily. Day ? of monitoring.

## What This Site Does

The Iran Conflict Scenario Monitor tracks how eight mutually exclusive conflict scenarios are evolving. Every 12 hours, 14 AI analytical agents — each grounded in a different international relations framework — independently assess the situation and assign probability estimates. These are aggregated into consensus probabilities with disagreement metrics.

## Current Scenario Probabilities (Day ?)

| Code | Scenario | Probability | Description |
|------|----------|-------------|-------------|
| A | Negotiated Exit | ?% | Diplomatic settlement following Kosovo model. Requires mediator, back-channel, and face-saving formula. |
| V | Declared Victory | ?% | Trump declares objectives achieved and withdraws unilaterally. Transforms rather than ends the conflict. |
| B1 | Coercive Submission | ?% | Iran capitulates within 2 weeks. Base rate near 0% across all historical reference classes. |
| B2 | Grinding Degradation | ?% | Sustained 3-5 week campaign. Iranian fire rate declines. Air-only degradation may be ineffective against Mosaic doctrine. |
| B3 | Attrition Stalemate | ?% | Sustained rationed fire, elevated oil prices, no decisive result. Breeding ground for V scenario. |
| B4 | Regional War | ?% | Houthis activate or Gulf states drawn into offensive. Partially active as of Day 10. |
| C | Regime Fracture | ?% | Internal institutional breakdown in Iran. Mojtaba succession may reduce or increase this risk. |
| D | Nuclear Sprint | ?% | Iran assembles or demonstrates nuclear device under existential pressure. Lowest probability, highest consequence. |

## Content Types

### Assessments
Regular (typically twice-daily) probability updates with analysis of what events are driving shifts.


### Consultations
Deep-dive analyses on specific questions posed to all 14 analytical agents.


### Strategic Deliberations
Option-mapping exercises scoring available moves for each actor on likelihood and strategic value.


## Machine-Readable Data

For structured data access (JSON APIs):
- [Current state](https://lab.globaltradealert.org/api/monitor/current) — Latest probabilities, scenario definitions, metadata
- [All assessments](https://lab.globaltradealert.org/api/monitor/assessments) — Assessment index with probabilities
- [Probability history](https://lab.globaltradealert.org/api/monitor/probabilities) — Full time series
- [Scenario definitions](https://lab.globaltradealert.org/api/monitor/scenarios) — Scenario codes, names, descriptions

## Other Pages

- [Timeline](https://lab.globaltradealert.org/timeline) — Events flagged by the analytical system
- [Predictions](https://lab.globaltradealert.org/predictions) — When agents predict milestones will occur
- [The Brief](https://lab.globaltradealert.org/the-brief) — Daily AI-generated audio briefings
- [FAQ](https://lab.globaltradealert.org/faq) — How the system works
- [Analytical Setup](https://lab.globaltradealert.org/analytical-setup) — Methodology documentation

## Full Content

For complete inline content including latest assessments: [llms-full.txt](https://lab.globaltradealert.org/llms-full.txt)

## About

Published by [Global Trade Alert](https://www.globaltradealert.org), St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity Through Trade (SGEPT). Technology team exercise — not an institutional assessment. Contact: lab@globaltradealert.org