# Iran Conflict Scenario Monitor — Full Content

> Real-time analytical monitoring of the US-Iran military conflict using a 14-agent AI system. Published by Global Trade Alert. Updated multiple times daily. Day ? of monitoring.

## Current Scenario Probabilities (Day ?)

| Code | Scenario | Probability | Description |
|------|----------|-------------|-------------|
| A | Negotiated Exit | ?% | Diplomatic settlement following Kosovo model. Requires mediator, back-channel, and face-saving formula. |
| V | Declared Victory | ?% | Trump declares objectives achieved and withdraws unilaterally. Transforms rather than ends the conflict. |
| B1 | Coercive Submission | ?% | Iran capitulates within 2 weeks. Base rate near 0% across all historical reference classes. |
| B2 | Grinding Degradation | ?% | Sustained 3-5 week campaign. Iranian fire rate declines. Air-only degradation may be ineffective against Mosaic doctrine. |
| B3 | Attrition Stalemate | ?% | Sustained rationed fire, elevated oil prices, no decisive result. Breeding ground for V scenario. |
| B4 | Regional War | ?% | Houthis activate or Gulf states drawn into offensive. Partially active as of Day 10. |
| C | Regime Fracture | ?% | Internal institutional breakdown in Iran. Mojtaba succession may reduce or increase this risk. |
| D | Nuclear Sprint | ?% | Iran assembles or demonstrates nuclear device under existential pressure. Lowest probability, highest consequence. |

## Scenario Definitions

### A: Negotiated Exit
Diplomatic settlement following Kosovo model. Requires mediator, back-channel, and face-saving formula.

### V: Declared Victory
Trump declares objectives achieved and withdraws unilaterally. Transforms rather than ends the conflict.

### B1: Coercive Submission
Iran capitulates within 2 weeks. Base rate near 0% across all historical reference classes.

### B2: Grinding Degradation
Sustained 3-5 week campaign. Iranian fire rate declines. Air-only degradation may be ineffective against Mosaic doctrine.

### B3: Attrition Stalemate
Sustained rationed fire, elevated oil prices, no decisive result. Breeding ground for V scenario.

### B4: Regional War
Houthis activate or Gulf states drawn into offensive. Partially active as of Day 10.

### C: Regime Fracture
Internal institutional breakdown in Iran. Mojtaba succession may reduce or increase this risk.

### D: Nuclear Sprint
Iran assembles or demonstrates nuclear device under existential pressure. Lowest probability, highest consequence.


## Latest Assessments



## Latest Consultation

(No consultations available)

## Latest Strategic Deliberation

(No deliberations available)

## Recent Probability History

| Day | Date | Scenario Probabilities |
|-----|------|----------------------|


## Machine-Readable Data

For structured data access (JSON APIs):
- [Current state](https://lab.globaltradealert.org/api/monitor/current) — Latest probabilities, scenario definitions, metadata
- [All assessments](https://lab.globaltradealert.org/api/monitor/assessments) — Assessment index with probabilities
- [Probability history](https://lab.globaltradealert.org/api/monitor/probabilities) — Full time series
- [Scenario definitions](https://lab.globaltradealert.org/api/monitor/scenarios) — Scenario codes, names, descriptions

## About

Published by [Global Trade Alert](https://www.globaltradealert.org), St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity Through Trade (SGEPT). Technology team exercise — not an institutional assessment.